Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Aug 2010

Setting Auction Values

I'm setting up a spreadsheet to calculate my own draft lists and auction values. I've got it set up so I can customize it quickly to my league's size and drafting style (e.g., if I think a bunch of guys will take a backup D, I can just up the number of defenses drafted). It works well for calculating a basic draft list: I get a baseline value for each position, calculate each player's Value Over Baseline (VOB), and then I can just adjust players based on that.
For basic auction values, I add up the total VOB for all the players with a positive Value; each player's auction value is his fraction of the total VOB, times the total amount of money available in the auction. And that leads me to the following question: Should this function be linear? In other words, is the marginal value of a point constant?

For example, if Flash Gordon projects to have a VOB of 140, and Rudy Windsprint projects to 70, is Flash worth exactly twice as much?
If Matty Bigman has a VOB of 90, and Darryl Backup has a VOB of 20, should Flash + Darryl be the same value as Rudy + Matty?

My suspicion is that getting Flash is worth more, but it's not clear how much, or how I'd go about figuring that. Does anyone have any insight? Am I off base in trying to adjust my values in this way?

Posted by: Fontes of Wayne on 27 Aug 2010

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