Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Aug 2011

Shonn Greene

Kubiak loves him. Nobody else seems to. I realize a lot of owners must have been burned last year, but what gives?

Posted by: Arjen.Robben on 26 Aug 2011

16 replies , Last at 07 Oct 2011, 11:54am by Shawn

1
Re: Shonn Greene
by boone88rr :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 1:59pm

Not sure how accurate that observation is. With my scoring settings, KUBIAK says he's projected exactly where he's being drafted. ADP delta of 1.

He's on that fringe of RB3 to high-end RB2 with about 12 other guys lumped in that similar "tier". Given the others situations and injury histories I think, and KUBIAK seems to think so also, that he's worth the 3rd round pick over say Best, Moreno or DeAngelo. I might take Felix Jones first but if I needed a RB2 in the 3rd round Greene would be someone to target.

He was drafted way too early last year (expecting high RB2 numbers) and Tomlinson played much more of a role early in the season then anybody thought. Fumbles got Greene in trouble early.

2
Re: Shonn Greene
by Arjen.Robben :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 3:30pm

Hes in my FOA index as a high end rb2, which would make him an excellent value based on current ADP. What's the consensus, is he a legit feature back behind the Jets o-line? Seems as though most fantasy owners are weighting his downside more heavily.

3
Re: Shonn Greene
by Zheng :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 10:13pm

The way I see it, Greene's only competition for runs is LT2, who declined over last season and should therefore have a smaller role in this one. Compared to C. Benson, who is around the same projection, Greene seems to be the better back but might have to share the rock more.

Anyway, I'm targeting Greene, in my league I think he might last until the 4th round and should be a steal there.

4
Re: Shonn Greene
by nkowal :: Sun, 08/28/2011 - 4:15pm

I'm not sold on this logic. This was the exact same logic that was used to justify him being drafted really high in leagues last year as well.

Bilal Powell could pick up more touches as the season goes on, in my opinion.

Still, people shy away from Greene after being burned by him, so he can still be a value. People always take him before I'm comfortable taking him so it never ends up being a decision for me.

7
Re: Shonn Greene
by Zheng :: Sun, 08/28/2011 - 11:17pm

Shrug. I don't know if that's the logic KUBIAK is using to rank Greene where he is, I'm just trying to explain KUBIAK's ranking with handwaving. If I expand the rushing projections, the breakdown makes sense to me.

8
Re: Shonn Greene
by nkowal :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 9:10pm

Fair enough. It's okay for logical people to disagree on a player. :) Just voicing my opinion on why I tend to shy away from him.

5
Re: Shonn Greene
by Arjen.Robben :: Sun, 08/28/2011 - 4:49pm

Hm. I think I'll pass on him and aim for somebody like Felix Jones in the 4th. Watching his highlights it's not obvious to me there's something special there.

6
Re: Shonn Greene
by gqinxs :: Sun, 08/28/2011 - 5:04pm

In my PPR league he is ranked 31, I think he is right where he should be, however ESPN delta of 31

9
Re: Shonn Greene
by tally :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 2:34pm

You definitely shouldn't take him where KUBIAK projects if ADP is much lower on him; otherwise, he wouldn't be a value.

10
Re: Shonn Greene
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 1:58pm

I got him as my second RB in the 5th round in a 10 team league where FLEX can be a QB also. I wasn't targetting him - but the best remaining besides him were Matthews and Benson (I got Matthews in round 7) so I felt good about taking him there. I wasn't going to take him any earlier than that.

11
Re: Shonn Greene
by Arjen.Robben :: Thu, 09/08/2011 - 4:44pm

I ended up taking him as an RB4 late in the fifth round. I wasn't high on any of the available WR's. He'll be playing behind Mendenhall, Hillis, and Ahmad Bradshaw in a 12-team, 0.5 PPR league. Should be a solid value at 5.11. I can envision his role as excellent injury cover at an injury-prone position, and a solid flex fill-in during the regular season based on matchups. If he performs well, I'll package him with a WR2 to someone desperate for a RB and upgrade another position of need, probably a WR or TE (I'm counting on you, Jared Cook!).

12
Re: Shonn Greene
by Zheng :: Thu, 09/08/2011 - 9:23pm

Greene's ADP has been skyrocketing over the past couple of weeks. He's at the end of the 3rd round now. Oddly Benson, who is more or less equal to Greene as far as KUBIAK is concerned, has been dropping, he's now a 6th round pick.

13
Re: Shonn Greene
by Key19 :: Fri, 09/09/2011 - 9:05pm

I got Greene in the 4th as my 2nd RB, and then got Benson in the 5th as my 3rd RB. Hoping that two of my three (Forte/Greene/Benson) become bona-fide starters.

14
Re: Shonn Greene
by Anon (not verified) :: Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:52pm

Any thoughts on his performance thus far relative to the projection? He looks awful...

15
Re: Shonn Greene
by Robben (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2011 - 3:29pm

Last week, after watching him for 2 games, I decided it was time to sell and offloaded him in a straight-up deal for Cam Newton.

Having watched his highlights from past seasons, I was concerned that he was not a especially talented as a runner (as I mentioned above), and his first few games confirmed that fear. Sell now if you can, preferably to someone willing to take a risk on Shonn Greene's perceived upside (it's a myth) so you can get decent value for him.

16
Re: Shonn Greene
by Shawn :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 11:54am

Midseason update still loves him. I don't get it. I don't think I'll be targeting him a trade, but if you really trust KUBIAK you could be getting some really good value if you trade for him now.

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