Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Aug 2013

Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?

I know his ADP is about 22, but there is such a gap after Graham. I know he won't be available with the 29th pick. The Gronk's ADP is about 47. If I don't get one of the top two TEs, I'll be giving up maybe 70 fantasy points at that position. If I don't take Graham with the 12th pick, I would probably end up with another top 12 RB (I have Doug Martin as a keeper 1st round pick). There's about a 20 point FPOB drop from the #12 RB to Graham. There's about a 39 point FP drop from the #12 RB to Graham. Should I reach for Graham, should I try for the Gronk in the 4th round or live with a run of the mill TE??? Thanks for your help...

Posted by: CheeseHead on 28 Aug 2013

6 replies , Last at 29 Aug 2013, 8:10pm by Zheng

1
Re: Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?
by Sifter :: Wed, 08/28/2013 - 4:40pm

You have the 12th pick, if it happens that the top 10 RBs are off the board and Calvin Johnson, then I might think about Graham. Often someone will pick Rodgers though, so one of those top 11 players might fall to you. If they do drop I would definitely pick one of them, because a top tier guy + a random late round tight end will give you more FPOB than Graham and a later round RB will (eg in my chart Trent Richardson + Jermichael Finley comes out well ahead of Jimmy Graham + say, Chris Ivory). Plus it will sew up your starting RBs and you'll only have to worry about depth from there on out - always good when RBs are flying off the board.

2
Re: Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?
by Sporran :: Wed, 08/28/2013 - 5:23pm

The difference between a top WR and a top TE is that the cost of a replacement level TE is lower. In other words, if you wait on WR's, you will need to draft your worst starting WR in round 6 or 7, at the latest. On the other hand, you can usually draft all your starting positions (besides K, DEF, and TE) and still get a replacement-level TE in round 10 or 11 (I'm basing this off a 10-team league, so adjustments may be necessary). The 3-4 round difference is pretty big, and therefore lowers Graham's value a bit. In other words, drafting Jimmy Graham costs you a bench player from round 7, whereas drafting a top WR costs you a bench player from round 10. What that is worth to you is how much you should drop him in your rankings.

3
Re: Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?
by CheeseHead :: Wed, 08/28/2013 - 6:08pm

Thanks guys...that helps, I think. In my league you must start 1 RB and 2 WRs, but we have 2 Flex WR/RBs. I can basically use my best 5 RB/WRs every week. Hopefully, I'm the only one gunning for the FO favorites so, let's say:

T. Richardson, 2nd round; FP=207; FPOB=73
G. Olsen or O. Daniels, 9th round; FP=98; FPOB= -16
Total is 305 FP with FPOB=57

J. Graham, 2nd round; FP=168; FPOB=54
D. Wilson, 4th round; FP=178; FPOB=44
Total is 346 FP with FPOB=98

J. Graham, 2nd round; FP=168; FPOB=54
C. Ivory, 9th round; FP=146; FPOB=12
Total is 314 FP with FPOB=66

Seems like having the premier TE and the flexibility to play my best RBs and WRs trumps getting two top 10 RBs...

4
Re: Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?
by Sifter :: Thu, 08/29/2013 - 12:37am

AH OK, must be only starting 1 RB that makes the FPOB different in your league. In my KUBIAK, Richardson + Daniels would be better than Graham + Ivory, in your league that's not the case.

5
Re: Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?
by jaw4527 :: Thu, 08/29/2013 - 4:40pm

go and get the gronk in the 5th. hell likely put up as good or better numbers compared with graham and will cost a lot less

6
Re: Should I take Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick?
by Zheng :: Thu, 08/29/2013 - 8:10pm

I just picked up Graham with the #16 pick (10-team league). By then the top-10 RBs and Calvin were gone, so I could have picked up an RB2, one of the better WRs, or Jimmy, who KUBIAK said was the most valuable player left at that point. I can see shooting for Gronk instead, but obviously I think drafting Graham in the second round is okay too.