Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Sep 2009

Skewer my KUBIAK-centric draft

I just got out of the military and hastily started classes at university, so I didn't have the time to get prepared for fantasy season like I normally do. I relied entirely on KUBIAK, which is why comparing the teams after the draft, I "won the draft" as far as KUBIAK is concerned. This was the case last year, too, but I ended up .500.

I don't like the way my team shaped up though, particularly at TE, RB1, WR2, and backup QB. 10 teams, 1 point per reception, some minor bonuses for return yardage). FLEX is RB/WR/TE. The guys on either side of me are guys who've I've always admired for their drafts, and they were killing me tonight.

8 Randy Moss (set off a WR run)
13 Steven Jackson (Order: Brady, SJax, DWllms, ChrJohnson, BWestbrook)
28 Dwayne Bowe (Colston, R White just before. Welker just after)
33 Philip Rivers (thought Welker would last til here but glad to have Rivers)
48 Anthony Gonz. (V Jacks went just before.)
53 Reggie Bush (remember, 1 PPR!)
68 Eddie Royal
73 Felix Jones (was itching to get Norwood here)
88 Devin Hester (don't like him much.)
93 Torry Holt
108 Leon Washington (starting to panic about TE)
113 David Garrard
128 Jerious Norwood (I'm loving this pick)
133 Bears DEF
148 Randy McMichael (The horror. The horror.)
153 Nate Kaeding

I think it's alright, but again, on TE, I am going to get murdered. I eyed Olson, Keller, and Carlson, and they were all taken within 3 picks of where I was going to grab them. I always get killed at TE, and I always promise myself I will be more aggressive drafting them in the future. Still haven't followed through...

I think I will be playing a lot of matchups. I hate doing that... I bet Bowe ends up as my FLEX player and Gonzalez ends up as my WR2. In fact, I've got Bowe sitting Week 1 with Leon Washington starting at flex.

I had a chance to get Roethlisberger at a reasonable time, but other than that, it seemed like QBs were flying off the board as well. Never seemed like I had good value until I took Garrard.

I expected to get Brady @ 13, but he went 12th, so I had to "settle" for SJax. He could end up as the #1 fantasy player for the year, but I hadn't even researched him. KUBIAK had him leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else there, so I took him, but my mocks never let him even be in consideration for 13th overall. Totally caught off guard by that one, and hesitant to take him over the RBs that went immediately afterwards.

You guys have any advice for sleeper tight ends - if there is such a thing? I'm taking James Casey if Owen Daniels gets hurt, but that's only because I'm a Texans fan.

Posted by: socctty on 02 Sep 2009

2 replies , Last at 09 Sep 2009, 7:30pm by socctty

1
Re: Skewer my KUBIAK-centric draft
by alsep73 :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 8:32am

If you're going to take a flyer on a TE late, maybe Jermichael Finley on the Packers? He came on strong late last year, and it sounds like they want to use him a lot this season, and I doubt he was drafted in your league.

And if it makes you feel better, I leaned heavily on KUBIAK in one of my drafts, and have already taken some ribbing for picking MJD over Turner, Vincent Jackson over TO, Hester (who I'm also iffy on, to be honest) over Santana Moss and either Pittsburgh receiver, etc. I feel good about my team, and I quite like yours, too. We get some return yard points, too, so guys like Felix and Leon (I have him, too) are going to be useful

That said, KUBIAK favorite (and your favorite) Jerious Norwood is still out there on the waiver wire, and I have a RB spot on the bench to fill, but I can't help feeling more tempted by Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants seem more interested in using him to spot Jacobs than Falcons do to spot Turner), James Davis (could he be this year's Steve Slaton if/when Browns recognize Jamal Lewis stinks?) or LeSean McCoy (Westbrook all but guaranteed to miss a few games). Is there a reason for your Norwood love beyond the KUBIAK projection? Even Aaron has said (on BS Report) that their projections seem to like the guy more than the Falcons coaches do.

2
Re: Skewer my KUBIAK-centric draft
by socctty :: Wed, 09/09/2009 - 7:30pm

The Falcons coaches have said they'd work in Norwood. I think Turner has to come down some, and will likely get hurt.

I can't believe McCoy is available for you. I'd go for him over Norwood. I was also eying James Davis, sure that no one else was going to get him, until someone picked him up off of waivers today! A Cleveland fan whose team name is "The Browns Fucking Suck", no less. Bradshaw isn't available, either.

I guess with Norwood and McCoy, we're both waiting for someone to get hurt. Betting on Westbrook getting hurt isn't a bad idea.

Finley is available, as is Scheffler. I hesitate to drop McMichael and pick up one of those guys, since I have waiver priority #2. I think Scheffler is a bit over-rated at this point, especially considering his OWN%, but still, he's probably better than McMichael, even in the DEN offense. I'm sure at some point in the season I'll be dropping McMichael, I'd just hate to waste my waiver priority. We have unlimited pickups, though.

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