Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Sep 2011

Special teams projection questions

How does KUBIAK project special teams points? I'm in a league with 1 point per each 10 PR yards and each 25 KR yards, so things like Danny Amendola being a top-10 receiver last year are not uncommon. One thing I noticed is that Darren Sproles is projected for quite a few return yards this year, but the depth charts on NFL.com and ESPN have Henderson and Moore as the Saints' returners. I'm left wondering how KUBIAK projects this. Additionally, what site typically has the most accurate depth charts that you guys use?

Posted by: heatpop on 02 Sep 2011

2 replies , Last at 03 Sep 2011, 3:33pm by Aaron Schatz

Re: Special teams projection questions
by elgato7664 :: Fri, 09/02/2011 - 8:51pm

Uggh... great point (I already drafted Sproles in a league with those return rules).

I think the NFL.com/ESPN depth charts use the list the Saints gave them a couple weeks ago.

After doing a little bit of research on this topic, I'm guessing Courtney Roby will be the primary kick returner and Sproles will be the primary punt returner. If New Orleans decides that Roby is expendable, he could end up being cut & Sproles would presumably take over.

I did a check of last year's KUBIAK, and they projected 10 out 16 primary kick returners correctly and 15 out of 23 primary punt returners correctly.

NOTE: KUBIAK doesn't generate projections for many kick return specialists if they aren't expected to have other fantasy value. I considered an attempt being where they actually projected a primary returner or the primary returner had an individual KUBIAK projection but was not expected to be the primary returner.

Going forward, I will probably use 1 pt per 15 punt return yards & 1 pt per 40 kick return yards to build in the uncertainty of predicting returners and to account for the fact that my leaguemates generally significantly undervalue return yards.

Re: Special teams projection questions
by Aaron Schatz :: Sat, 09/03/2011 - 3:33pm

It is very difficult to get projections on return men. The depth chart changes all the time. Readers are welcome to post if I have an incorrect projection.

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