Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

13 Aug 2009

strategy advice for odd league settings.

Asked to join a league by a friend but the league has several non-standard settings so I figured I would post them here to see if anyone has some insight

14 team league where I draft 9th
passing TD's are 6 points.
-2 for INT's
.5 ppr
point/30 yards passing
point/10 yards rushing
point/15 yards receiving
point/30 yards returning
sacks count for 2 points.
only 4 bench spots!

Putting these into Kubiak its clear that one of the underrated positions will be a third down receiver that catches a lot of balls and also returns kickoffs. Felix Jones is projected to be the 14th best RB and Darren Sproles projects to be the 16th best RB. In a 14 team league where there are 28 RB's starting every week those players are golden considering you likely don't have to use a pick in the first 3 rounds to get them. Jurious Norwood is projected to be within 10 points of Michael Turner- those catches and kickoff returns add up in a hurry.

Considering the draft happens tonight I will be not drafting a kicker. That roster spot is better used right now on a backup RB that might luck into a starting gig. With only 4 benchspots its tough to stash a guy hoping he becomes a starter. I mean thats a backup QB, RB, WR and just one more backup. Considering the crap that will be on the waiver wire for QB I'm thinking that I need to ensure getting a decent backup QB. The system loves Tavaris Jackson who I can hopefully draft late.

Unless a Stephen Jackson or LT falls to me unexpectedly I think it makes sense to draft one of the prime WR's in the first round. then 2nd round see who falls to me- if its a QB then great, if its another WR no problem. After that I have to think that my picks will start to get pretty clear. I think the guys who do lots of their damage in special teams will tend to be undervalued and its just a matter of trying to snap up the guys who fall.

The system loves the Bears defense but I don't have a good feel for when I might want to start looking that direction.

The system tends to think that all TE's are going too soon but likes Gates the most. My 4th round pick is at 48- if I want him then thats probably when I would have to take him. That probably will depend a lot on who falls to me. But with these rules I sort of like the idea of going WR, QB, WR the first 3 rounds and then filling my RB spots with guys like Jones, Sproles, Norwood, and Washington. With a 14 team league you can't have a star at every position and if I am picking my poison that seems like a good way of going.

Anyone else have any ideas or suggestions?

Posted by: spotatl on 13 Aug 2009

4 replies , Last at 14 Aug 2009, 5:34pm by mrspree15

1
Re: strategy advice for odd league settings.
by AndyB :: Thu, 08/13/2009 - 3:16pm

Your league rules make my brain hurt.

2
Re: strategy advice for odd league settings.
by Marcumzilla :: Thu, 08/13/2009 - 10:35pm

I have an autodraft league that gives 1 pt / 20 return yards. Darren Sproles is the #1 back, and Nate Burleson the #1 WR. Last year guys like Johnnie Lee Higgins were consistent scorers. It could be a high-risk, high-reward gamble. You may look like a genius for trying it. You just have to make it past the laughing.

3
Re: strategy advice for odd league settings.
by spotatl :: Fri, 08/14/2009 - 9:14am

Well... Things did not go quite as I expected. If you had told me that 8 runningbacks were taken in the 8 spots before me I thought for sure I would be going WR but Stephen Jackson was a guy who fell. RB's continued to go and Randy Moss made it to my pick on the way back (20) which I really couldn't believe. I was hoping to be able to get Rivers with my third pick (37) but he went off the board just before me so I got Vincent Jackson. Wes Welker was still on the board but already having randy moss and being wary of bye weeks considering the short bench I didn't think it was a good idea even though he did rate a little higher. Coming back around in the 4th I pretty much had the choice between Houshmandzaedeh or Antonio Gates. I went with Housh to be the first team to lock in all 3 starting WR's. Kubiak thought that TE's were overrated and that I would be able to get a good TE at the end of the draft- I ended up with Scheffler in the last round. Shockingly enough there were several teams that picked up backup TE's. Kubiak has both Housh and Jackson as top 11 WR's by our scoring system. I missed out on Burleson by a couple picks. I thought he was totally off people's radar screen and I might be able to work a trade.

I locked in Felix Jones and Sproles since I thought they were so favored by our scoring system. I basically had to pick Sproles over the Chicago defense which could come back to haunt me but I would have kicked myself to run the numbers on Sproles and not get him in the end. I was a little shocked when Knowshon Moreno fell to me even though I live in Georgia but I happily snapped him up. Kubiak thinks that I have 4 of the top 18 RB's. (in a 14 team league mind you)

Rothlisberger and Tavaris Jackson are my QB's. Kubiak shows them both as top 10 QB's for our scoring system- we shall see.

Picked up Hixon as my backup WR. Considering the crap that some guys have in their starting lineup at WR in a 14 man league I was pretty happy with that.

Donald Brown and LeSean McCoy were late pickups that I didn't think I could pass on at that point in the draft. Basically I traded my kicker and defense for these 2 guys. I just think with so much time before the regular season that I'd rather have these guys to see how they pan out and I can worry about the more fungible positions later.

Pretty happy overall considering its a 14 team draft. I'll be looking for a 2 for 1 trade to consolidate some talent and clear up some roster spots. In retrospect I probably should have taken Welker over Jackson just from a trade value standpoint. (though people are usually hesitant to trade before the season starts) Time will tell on whether Gates or Housh was the better choice- likely it will come down to health. And now I really hope that Kubiak was wrong about the bears defense!

4
Re: strategy advice for odd league settings.
by mrspree15 :: Fri, 08/14/2009 - 5:34pm

I'm in a similar league (short bench, return points) and have thought about avoiding RBs early and grabbing the RBs you mentioned later.
What round did you get them in?
How early did the return guys that you didn't draft go?

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