Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Feb 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion

Here's the thread for in-game discussion of Super Bowl XLVII between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 03 Feb 2013

115 replies , Last at 05 Feb 2013, 11:28pm by Andrew Potter

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 3:27pm

Guys I'm planning on going to bed and setting an alarm - I wont be able to stay awake, I think. When will the game start? nfl.com says 6:30, but when will it ACTUALLY start - I plan on sleeping through the national anthem and so on.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by joe football (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 7:17pm

Be sure join a star-studded cast of your favorite FO posters for superbowl football chat!
Instructions moved to pastebin due to overzealous spam filter: http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=Qjf3ZzvE

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by tgt2 (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 7:29pm

The games hasn't started yet, and already Bulger is confusing.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by tgt2 (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 7:29pm

Errrr. Boger.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by JIPanick :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:28pm

Don't sweat it. Boger is confusing. =D

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by James-London :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:16pm

Wow. Queit in here...

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

6
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:27pm

Looking good for the Ravens - second turnover!

7
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:31pm

How was Cary Williams not ejected for shoving the official just then?

8
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:32pm

All I can think of is that it's the Super Bowl. Nobody's going to be ejected unless there really is no other option.

Well that, or the referee's bad. Take your pick.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:41pm

Just like it appears they're not calling holding, illegal contact downfield, or pass interference.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:43pm

That just means it's a playoff game though, doesn't it?

9
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Pilkington (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:39pm

OK, when do we see Alex Smith?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:47pm

You think CK should be benched for throwing a pick?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by JIPanick :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:13pm

I'd consider it if CK comes out in the second half and still looks awful after a possession or two...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:22pm

After two possessions may be too late at this rate. You'd be looking at being down probably three scores, with maybe three possessions left.

That decision needs to be made at halftime based on how Kaepernick is during the interval. I don't see Harbaugh pulling him - if he gets it together he's still a more dangerous player than Smith. Smith's not the quarterback you want trying to bring you back from a deficit like this.

12
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:46pm

Although Smith probably should have been called for interference, he did a good job of changing his role to defender and preventing the interception. Too many wide receivers fail to do this.

So far, although the turnovers have skewed things, the Ravens have looked like the superior time.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:14pm

By good job changing his role to defender, you mean tackling the defensive back, right?

14
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:48pm

Why do supposedly great defenses leave Ravens' receivers wide open downfield?

I'm totally baffled here.

Nice move by Jacoby Jones.

15
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:48pm

...as I was saying...

"time," of course, was supposed to be "team"

16
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 8:52pm

I do not understand when I see NFL defenders hurdle receivers who are on the ground instead of touching them down. What are you doing? Your entire job at that point is to hit him!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:52pm

And get a unessecary roughness flag - that's got to be what's holding them back.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:57pm

All he needs to do is slide into him, or even run forward and trip over him. There shouldn't be any risk of getting flagged at all.

17
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:03pm

My "excluding the middle" pick is looking good. By which I mean, since so many pundits were hedging their bets by picking a victory by one or the other teams by less than 4 points, I decided to take "big victory by somebody."

I wonder if any of the sports books would offer a bet like that. An over/under on margin of victory. Most Super Bowls haven't been close, though there have been more close games in recent years.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Joshua Northey (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:15pm

So far Kapernick is really playing poorly, and the BAL offense is playing really well. Hard to know how much of that to blame on the defenses.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:31pm

And the Ravens' special teams shows up for the Super Bowl!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by verdell :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:32pm

it just got a whole lot harder.

25
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Joshua Northey (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:33pm

Ouch...

26
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:34pm

Have there ever been two such horrific opening plays by a team in the same playoff game?? Lining up in an illegal formation on the first play of the game, and then allowing a back-breaking 109 yard kickoff return?? One Hrbaugh had his team ready to play, the other obviously didn't.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by ima_pseudonym (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:35pm

Tough to tackle the returner when the other team has you in a bear hug.

28
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:36pm

Kapernick was Vegas for three months-- tonight he's Reno... This game is also pretty damning for GB and its receivers/QB and particularly play-callers-- they wouldn't/couldn't go deep-- Flacco has done it with impunity.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:37pm

"Good no throw by Kaepernick."

So now QBs are praised for simply failing to do something? Good job not throwing an interception!

(Who turned off the lights?)

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:37pm

WTF is going on???? Lights go out??? No CBS mike??? This game has entered the realm of the bizarre....

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:38pm

One could say the Ravens have been turning out the Niner lights all night......

32
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:40pm

well a good, but hardly great Raven team is about to turn the lights out on 3 of the greatest teams in the last 23 years, at least according to DVOA..... :) Poor New Orleans-- or maybe it's some angry bettors on SF

33
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Joshua Northey (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:43pm

I always feel like when things like this happen there has to be a nonzero chance that they simply won't be able to get the back on. Which would be awesome.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:44pm

Ah well. If it stays like this it goes to a replay, right?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:47pm

They will finish this game today.

I'm wondering who will be hurt by the delay. On the one hand, the 49ers can use the time to regroup and reclaim their psyche. On the other hand, the Ravens are the older team and could use the rest a lot more.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Joshua Northey (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:48pm

There is a 99.5% chance it doesn't matter.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:49pm

That was tongue in cheek, just to be clear.

They've just come out of halftime. I'd imagine there's a great worry about stiffness and tightening up than about getting your veterans rested.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:07pm

It did inspire me to try to find out what the NFL rules were regarding delays. But the Google search sends me into explanations of the delay of game penalty.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:06pm

CBS will probably be hurt the most by this delay. The sound you're hearing is the thousands of clicks by casual viewers switching the channel.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:12pm

The combination of the delay and the 22-point lead just might lead a good number of people to leave the game. I wonder...ordinarily I would think the Super Bowl would be bulletproof.

38
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by bengt (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:49pm

German TV is interviewing the Azteca TV girl. I'll stay awake a couple of minutes more.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:08pm

Using this post to ask, has something like this ever occurred at a World Cup or Olympics?

52
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:14pm

I'm reminded of the earthquake during the '89 World Series and, sadly, the terrorists in Munich in '72.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:18pm

If I recall correctly, Brundage didn't let 11 dead Israelis slow things down much.

Brundage was a quality human being -- famous for '72 and for hating Jim Thorpe.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:51pm

I'm going to say that Steve Tasker flipped a switch somewhere so he can get more air time. Sneaky Bill!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Hurt Bones :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:53pm

For a second I thought Steve Tasker thought he was Al Haig.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:56pm

LoL.

Kids today might not get the reference.

42
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:56pm

It's ludicrous to think that Alex Smith can manage a 3-TD comeback better than Kaepernick could. A QB switch would be an act of desperation.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:56pm

And the wives of America say in unison, "Forget TIVO, we're watching Downton Abbey live!"

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:30am

I dual cast and this caught the greatest Maggie Smith/Dowager Countess line ever-- referring to the former Downton servant Ethel who left the Abbey, had an illegitimate child and since turned to prostitution but has been "saved" by Mrs Crawley and has just cooked (with Mrs. Patmore's surreptitious help) a "get better lunch" for the grieving women after Sybil's death. As Robert marches into Mrs. Crawley's home to raise a ruckus over this horrible turn of events and inform the ladies of Ethel's previous means of income, the poor woman comes back into the dining room holding dessert, at which point the DC says "Well she seems to have a costume for all her activities"....

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by dcaslin :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 9:56pm

Somewhere in that stadium is an electrical engineer who will never ever be OK again...

47
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Crus :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:01pm

I'm not a big fan of Ray Lewis, but I do like the way it looks like he has a bionic arm.

54
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:25pm

Good to see Bernard Pollard screwing up for the TD, going for the big hit instead of just tackling the receiver.

55
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:29pm

Every time I see either of the Harbaughs ranting on the sideline I get this overwhelming desire to demand cake.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:30pm

Uh oh. It's falling apart.

56
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:30pm

Uh oh. It's falling apart.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:30pm

Bryant McKinnie, ladies and gentlemen.

59
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:33pm

Holy smokes! Now THAT's blocking!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:40pm

The power outage has really ruined this game.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:46pm

Or the 49'ers came back on their own and the power thing was meaningless.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Purds :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:47pm

Maybe if you're a Ravens fan. As a neutral fan, after the wait (great time for a bathroom break, check some email, eat a few more cookies), I am glad to see a closer game. Might be a game worth watching in Q4.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:28pm

It killed the flow of activity. A football game is intended to be played in a certain amount of time.

At the very least, it has seriously affected how the game has been played. "Killed" is probably too strong.

Edit: and no, I'm not a Ravens' fan.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 10:46pm

San Francisco's equipment manager will be picking pieces of Jacoby Jones out of Delanie Walker's helmet for weeks.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Pilkington (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:18pm

I wasn't paying attention - why did the 49ers go for two with 10 minutes left? If the Ravens get another TD, they'll be down two scores with little time left.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:22pm

Converting would have tied the game.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by ima_pseudonym (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:27pm

The knew the Ravens wouldn't get another TD.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:12am

If the Ravens scored another toughdown, the 49ers were pretty much fucked anyways.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:26pm

I wonder if 49ers fans are going to spend years hating on Vernon Davis the way so many Pats' fans hate on Wes Welker.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:33pm

FG and onside kick? Or 4th and long?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:35pm

Jim Harbaugh wants a holding call on the biggest play of the day?

Does he not know what league this is? Has he been watching this game today?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:39pm

It would have been a tough catch to get inbounds even had Davis gotten a hand on it.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:46pm

Yes, CK was hit as he released the ball.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 1:33am

I'm sure his brother wanted illegal hands to the face, too. Neither got the call.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Jim W. (not verified) :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:36pm

Should the hit by Jimmy Smith on Crabtree on 3rd and goal have warranted a penalty?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:40pm

The NFL is not going to have a Super Bowl decided by somebody throwing a flag.

Not unless something really obvious and egregious happens.

(Go back and look at how egregiously Richard Seymour was being held on the famous Helmet Catch five years ago.)

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:10am

"The NFL is not going to have a Super Bowl decided by somebody throwing a flag"

The problem is, every superbowl is decided by guys breaking rules and not being flagged. Its being decided by the absence of flags.

There shouldn't be different rules in the playoffs.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:16am

Oh, I agree completely.

But the officials decided early today that were not going to throw many flags.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:40pm

intentional safety wins the game here, yes?

75
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:40pm

Well done, sir!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:42pm

Simms: I would not take a safety here.

Baltimore takes an intentional safety.

Simms: Good call, well executed.

Genius.

79
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by James-London :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:51pm

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

That is all

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 1:35am

Admittedly, you usually don't get to run 7 seconds off the clock when punting from ones own end-zone.

I admired how the Baltimore linemen were clearly instructed to hold like hell. Now *that* is good coaching.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by vcs (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 3:13am

Phil Simms used to be a complete mystery to me -- how can someone so 'cretinous' hold the #1 color job for so many years?

During this game, I finally finally figured it out. The network loves Simms because he takes both sides of every decision. The average fan must filter out what they don't want to hear and assume that Simms is on their side.

Another example with the fourth down play where Simms effectively said: "Great no-call by the officials, but you can see the holding right there."

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:43pm

Funny how the last few Super Bowls have ended with strange strategic scoring decisions: Letting opposing runners score, runners trying not to score, kickers voluntarily taking safeties...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Purds :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:59pm

I think it is the most visible product of thinking in unusual ways but with the end goal being to win, as opposed to doing what is expected. The traditionalist football of the last century is dead, or is dead for teams that win. Those teams occasionally try the unusual -- going for it on forth instead of punting on the opposite side of the field, fake FG attempts, surprise on-side kicks, etc. We've seen all of those in recent years as well.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:05am

Agreed. Also, the games have been much closer, decided by one score at the last minute, which requires coaches to use every last trick in their bag.
You wouldn't find Norv Turner trying such unusual tricks which is, perhaps, the point.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:59pm

Goodell: "Here's your trophy. Now I'm getting the hell out of New Orleans!"

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by coboney :: Sun, 02/03/2013 - 11:59pm

As a 49ers fan I'm hardly unbiased here but I felt the referring in the game was terrible. Boger really should be fired for it in my opinion.

There were a lot of bad no-calls particularly on the Ravens let free (but the niners got away with a few too I will say). In particular the scrum - pushing a Ref and punching a player on the ground intentionally and clearly in view not illiciting anything more then 'offsetting penalties' is a disgrace.

The end of game no-calls were really irritating no doubt as well.

Also Phil Simms should be killed along with any relative to him in the name of Darwinism.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by JIPanick :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:08am

I had a (casual) rooting interest in the Ravens, but I agree strongly. I don't think the Niners got screwed on more calls, necessarily, but the high leverage calls all went to Baltimore and some were very bad.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Joshua Northey (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:43am

It was not a well reffed game, but the Superbowl rarely is, so it doesn't really matter that they picked a substandard ref this time.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by tgt2 (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 1:22am

I agree that both those scrum calls should have been called. If so, though, the 49ers player that ripped off williams helmet when he was held down in the pile should be ejected. The lack of calls in the scrum was a "If we call this right, we lose multiple players on both sides...fuck it, offsetting" call.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Cro-Mags :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:01am

Flacco as MVP, his agent must be drooling like Pavlov's dog.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:21am

Long drive home in the minivan tonight.

"It was pass intereference!"
"Was not!"
"Was too!"
"Defensive holding, then!"
"Was not! It wasn't even a catchable ball."
"Was too!"
"Was not!"
"MOM!!"
"Jim and John, if I hear one more word out of either of you, I'll tell your father to pull over right here!"

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by JIPanick :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:31am

+1

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:23am

Anyone tackling the final timeout decision by Harbaugh yet?? I think it was incredibly stupid. Is 3rd and 10 near the goal line that much worse than 3rd and 5, when you aren't going to run anyway except with your QB and it opens up space for both he and his receivers to be 5 yards back?? Obviously Kapernick made the bigger mistake in not getting the snap off but Harbaugh should not have wasted the time out. And the upshot is that you don't get another chance-- as it was a 3 and out and they get the ball back at midfield or better (Baltimore would not have taken a safety with 50+ seconds left on clock) with 45 seconds or so and a reasonable chance to win-- probably at least 20-25%.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by JIPanick :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:31am

I think the 5 yards were worth more in improving the chance of succeeding NOW than the 40 seconds would have been in event of failure to score. Especially since the Ravens likely wouldn't have turtled so hard if the TO was still there, and a first down was very likely in that event IMO.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:34am

love to see the stats on that. Baltimore was not allowing Gore to score up the middle from the 5, so they were pretty much left to a Kaepernick rollout or fade pattern or scramble-- I've got to believe 3rd and 10 would only been a tad worse chance to score than 3rd and 5 given 25% more space opening up....

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:35am

and the Ravens would have allowed an 5-7 yd out to Crabtree-- exactly what SF tried-- on 3rd and 10, thus giving them a 4th and 3-5 anyway....

108
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:15am

Historically: 9-28 in 3rd or 4th and goal from >5 yards, and 20-50 in 3rd or 4th and goal and 5 or fewer.

That's not a huge difference in success rate, but what's markedly different is play selection. It's 82% passes from 5+, and 40% passes from 5 or less.

Basically, in a 3rd and a lot situation, the defense knows you're passing. There's utility in the increased play call variety in short goal situations.

Non-SB, it's 41-45% for TD-1stD in short goal, and 22% for both in long goal.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:34am

You don't know you're going to get the ball back though. The Ravens were running pretty effectively. Also I think the difference between five yards and ten is pretty significant. Down by 5 and inside the 10, the 49ers needed to go for the win right there. Whatever chance they'd have after a punt would be miniscule in comparison. So do everything you can to maximize your chances, such as taking the timeout.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:38am

All I'm arguing is that I don't think 3rd and 10-- at the goal line-- is all that much worse than 3rd and 5..... given the defense and the potential play-calling..... Whereas the difference between 0 chance after failing and 20-25?? is significant.... And I don;t think Baltimore is more than a tiny bit more likely to make the first down without the second timeout... They are not risking an incompletion inside their own ten, so SF stops the run pretty easily...

107
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:00am

I suspect 3rd and 10 is a lot worse than 3rd and 5. In general, it's a lot easier to get 5 yards than 10. The fact that there is more space to throw into is counter-balanced by the fact that a lot of that space is worthless (unless you have Ray Rice against the Chargers). If you want to hit a spot in the end zone, you want to be 5 yards closer to that spot, don't you?

97
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by GMR (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:37am

The Ravens were able to hold on the intentional safety without any consequences, since the penalty for holding in the end zone is a safety anyway. That bought a few more seconds of time for the punter. I wonder if there's a rule change that would deal with that situation.

102
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 1:25am

Yeah except they didn't even throw the penalty on that.

The officiating was horrendous in this game. I counted 5 holds, two clips, and at least two PI/holding/illegal contact calls not made.

Horrible officiating IMO.

103
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by tgt2 (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 1:26am

+1

I was wondering why there wasn't more holding. There's no negative, as more time ticks off the clock in any case. Until you get to an "unfair act", it's worth it to be as illegal as possible.

106
Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by RickD :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 1:56am

They didn't call holding all game long. They weren't going to start on an intentional safety with 6 seconds left in the game.

There is always holding in the NFL. The refs let the players know in the first quarter how much holding they are going to allow. If they want to throw a flag, there's ample opportunity to do so. If they've allowed holding to go unwhistled for 59 minutes and 50 seconds, that's a pretty clear sign that it won't be called in the last 10 seconds either.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:27am

My point was that in that situation, it completely does not matter whether they call it or not. They were trying for a safety anyway! But holding does let you run more time off the clock.

That was a sneaky heads-up play.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Purds :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:28am

Yeah, but the Baltimore "blockers" were tackling the rushers. They clearly were coached to do so, as several of them were doing it, and yet the announcers said: "The 49ers are slow to react -- they didn't expect Baltimore to take the safety."

Actually, the 49ers reacted just fine, but the Baltimore blockers were tackling them. They have to make some sort of rule change to account for that. If you tackle enough rushers, you could take out 15-20 seconds with a fairly swift guy handling the ball and a bit of room to run. Imagine: Denver's leading by 4, on their own 20, with 30 seconds left. They line up to punt, but instead have little Trindon Holliday, he of the 10.07 100 speed, take the snaps and run for his life back there while every Bronco player tackles and opponent, and it's Holliday, about 2-3 tacklers, and 20 seconds. He runs into the end zone, dodges a few guys while 10 teammates tackle, and game ends.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Steve B (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:40am

Likely to be lost (or at least pushed to the back burner) in all the debate over whether defensive holding should've been called on that 4th down is how incredibly bad the playcalling was on those final three plays. How do you not run Kaepernick at least once there? And how does Kaepernick not know where the play clock is at in that situation.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:29am

By formation, though, the Ravens were daring SF to pass. In compressed space, where DBs can play off man while still spying the QB, it would have been hard to run it in.

Now, oddly enough, a Tebow jump pass probably would have worked.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Paul R :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:31am

Obviously venturing into mind-reading here, but I don't think Kaepernick had his head in the game.
He made some brilliant plays. After the ball was snapped, he was great. But he seemed to falter between the plays and lose track of the cerebral aspects of quarterbacking: Awareness of the clock, game situation, reading the defense...It's hard to recall specific incidents, but I got the feeling sometimes that he wasn't leading the team. He just seemed to have a deer-inthe-headlights look about him.

Even Phil Simms mentioned putting in Alex Smith once or twice. Simms is a goofball, but he's also a quarterback, and I wonder if he noticed something in CK's body language that a fellow quarterback would recognize.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Mon, 02/04/2013 - 2:53am

He's a rookie.

I doubt the issue was "not having his head in the game". Its probably "not being very good at that aspect of the game"

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Re: Super Bowl XLVII Open Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:28pm

He's not a rookie.

But yes, inexperience probably has a lot to do with it.

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