Talk amongst yourselves
7/29: KC IDP, STL RB
7/27: ARI TE, various IDP updates.
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02 Feb 2014
Here's the in-game discussion thread for Super Bowl XLVIII, the first-ever matchup of the No. 1 DVOA offense with the No. 1 DVOA defense. Let's hope we don't have any blackouts.
Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 02 Feb 2014
154 replies , Last at
05 Feb 2014, 7:30pm by
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I can't be the only Seahawks fan taking Hans Zimmer's "You're So Cool" from the opening as a sign.
I heard that song come on and thought the same thing!
Do you know where I could find a video of the opening with that? I searched youtube for it but didnt find anything. Thanks
I've been looking, and I haven't found it yet.
oh okay! I appreciate it!
I have been looking everyday since I saw it and can't find anything!
Go Broncs! I expect Seattle to win, though. We'll have a quality Super Bowl champion either way, which is wonderful.
Agreed. A worthy champion regardless. Allthough can anyone figure out why Broncos are laying points? I feel like the Seahawks are the (slightly) better team expecially considering the matchup.
I posted about it in the preview thread. Essentially people are paying too much attention to the past two games for both teams, and not realizing they may not be especially predictive. Plus casual fans love offense, I guess.
I'm absolutely falling apart. I follow a lot of different sports and consider myself a fan of a number of franchises/clubs/teams. I have never tried anything like this. My head is spinning. I alternate between feeling (a) convinced that Manning will find a way, and (b) feeling certain that the Seahawks will win by 20. I can't handle another minute of pregame chit chat. GET IT OVER WITH.
I'm sitting here alone in my appartment. In the dark. Biting my nails to the knuckles. Zach Lowe hit the nail on the head: "I watched the game alone, the best way to watch a game about which you care deeply. It’s better if no one is around to see the pacing, or hear the expletives fly. The degree of caring is embarrassing."
I'm pumped. Nervous. Confused. Embarrased by being hit by som much emotion because of sports. Mostly though I'm pumped. I think.
I'm actually looking forward to this game. I'll be happy for either team to win. Good luck to fans of both teams.
Props to the organizers hiring Rene Fleming to sing national anthem. Nice to hear it sung by a pro instead of a deer-in-the-headlights pop singer straining for the high notes.
So who had safety for first score? That was a real wtf moment.
So that's what 'Omaha' means!
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50 push-ups, Ramirez!
Just Manny being Manny...
Game over. Seattle by 40.
Damn, there's my night.
TV off. Going to bed early.
This is worst case scenario. Yikes. I think he got that 1st down too.
First view, live it looked short, by inches, but on reply he might have made it.
I would go for it if Seattle doesn't win the challenge.
Seattle and challenging of spots in super bowls.
I hope not going for it on 4th-and-a-hair comes back to haunt Carrol. It was supposed to be Fox that was timid and conservative.
So goes the aggressive on fourth down narrative for Seattle.
Every fear coming true. Bad special teams, Percy Harvin running funky sweeps, Wilson keeping it on the zone read, Chancellor laying big hits on recievers who can only get open within 3 yards of LOS. Total disaster so far.
As an aside from the game, I approve the commercial music so far. Hot Chocolate's You Sexy Thing. Yazoo's Situation. Doesn't get much better.
After early game jitters, Wilson is looking good. I'd be nervous if I were a Denver fan.
Yes, Wilson is looking pretty sharp. Having sat through 3 losses in 4 years 20+ years ago I'm not that nervous anymore though since the two wins in a row. But it isn't looking good, a stop here though and to be only 8 down would be not so bad.
No idea why that wasn't grounding, never had a chance of reaching the receiver and Wilson was not being held at the time... Oh well.
If being an uncatchable ball was enough grounds for grounding, there'd be 10 times as many calls as there are now. It just has to be within the general area of a receiver.
Yeah, I know, but when a ball barely gets halfway there and doesn't reach scrimmage that is pushing the general area thing to its limits. But they almost never get called for that kind of thing.
The ball doesn't have to reach the LOS because there was a nearby receiver also behind the LOS.
Reckon that pass was about 6 inches forward. If it goes directly sideways though that is a fumble isn't it?
You are correct. I thought at first it was a good challenge. But on the replay it was obvious the ball did go ever so slightly forward. You would think that on a high stakes game like this (or any NFL game) teams would hire guys to immediately check plays.
Yeah, the reply looked pretty obvious to me, close but a bad challenge.
Good play by Irving gives Denver something.
Being down only 8 here is a miracle...
Is it just me, or does the crowd seem pro-Seahawks?
Well they do have more to cheer for.
That is true. But it has seemed really loud when Denver has been on offense. I haven't noticed the crowd as much when Seattle has had the ball.
Based on the noise levels during drives, seems like that to me as well.
(double post deleted)
Right now it's pretty tough to imagine the Broncos getting any offense. There is nothing. Manning is getting moved around in the pocket and nobody is getting open.
Out of the frying pan, into the fire for Denver. After a quarter, they've seen what, 7 plays? How are they supposed to make adjustments when they don't even know what they're doing on defense yet?
I hate to brak it to the 'Hawks but they aren't running it anywwhere it on obvious running downs.
Sadly that isn't making much difference to the state of the game.
An ad with Tim Tebow that wasn't annoying. Almost as surprising as the score.
I was glad to see he's comfortable making fun of his image.
Multiple post deleted
a commercial with Tim Tebow that isn't annoying. Almost as surprising as the score.
Speaking of annoying... :D
so much for my wife's ipad. Its back to the desktop for me.
Why have the Seahawks started blitzing. Seems a little too cute.
Watching the SB from a hotel in Germany is interesting. No commercials.
I think the Seahawks have to be encouraged on that incomplete deep pass. A younger Manning (or present day Rodgers) completes that pass.
Malcolm Smith gets the gift memory of a lifetime.
Goodnight. This is like those 80's Broncos Super Bowls.
Such mixed feelings watching this game so far. Watching the Seahawks administer a beatdown like this makes me wish the Patriots had won two weeks ago.
Looking at the reply, Moreno only turned round after the ball was thrown. He probably didn't pick up the off trajectory of the ball, whereas Smith was watching it all the way.
And if Holliday's knee was not down this is likely game over (if it isn't already). Looks to me like it shouldn't stand up to review.
It's over. How in the holy hell do you even begin to come back from this? This could be shutout.
Here's your complementary Trindon Holliday fumble, I hope you've enjoyed you stay here at the Mile High-Inn.
Figures that when we finally get to legit teams in the SB, it's the first blowout of the last ten years.
Denver can still score in a hurry. If they get themselves together, a 22-point lead is not safe.
Still "only" 3 scores despite the fact the game has an "this is over" feel. Could be worse if Seattle got TDs instead of FGs. Need 6 here.
OK, if Denver get flagged for that PI in the endzone then that was a PI downfield.
TMQ applauds going for it on 4th-and-2.
Hey we missed the parallels between the opening play safety and the Devin Hester return in Mannings first SB.
That was a mistake. Should have taken the figgie.
Reminds me of the Colts/Pats championship game in 06. Similar first-half stomping by the Pats. Dungy called for a field goal on 4th down at the end of the half. 3 points made a difference in the end. Plus, putting some points of the board had a good psychological effect. Especially when the alternative is a turnover on downs, sending your team to the locker room with nothing but bad vibes.
Yeah nothing bolsters moral like a stalled drive in a 22 point game.
I disagree. Even if they didn't make it.
Yep, because reducing a three touchdown advantage to… still needing three touchdowns to lead is so, so valuable. Seriously, I'm amazed that anyone on this website is arguing for taking three there. When even John Fox thinks you being too cautious, that's a bad sign.
That's why I mentioned the Colts/Pats championship game. In this particular situation, I would have taken the field goal. No strategy fits every situation.
So can i still get Cliff Avril as MVP at 100:1?
The conventional wisdom was that the game would be decided by the Seahawks offense against the Broncos defense; the world's-best Denver O and Seattle D would cancel each other out. That analysis sure seemed legitimate to me.
However, this game so far has truly featured a contest between the great Hawks D and the Broncos O, with the Hawks winning handily.
its now beaste mode timeL "run when you're winning" right?
I think it's "play action bomb" time, myself.
its now beaste mode time "run when you're winning" right?
Broncos could use a turnover on this possession....
TMQ just typed "game over."
Ubelievable. No really: I can't believe this.
Oh my god, this game is really over. I'm having flashbacks to the 1980s. Hopefully someone else in the AFC can be competitive in the Super Bowl in the next ten years.
Broncos with more fit defenders might be more competitive, some of the plays have been a bit fluky against them. Not saying that Seattle aren't good value for a win though, I'm a Broncos fan who expected the Seahawks to most likely win, though not quite like this!
The problem of the facing the great defense is that once things go wrong in a must win game it really can snowball.
Agreed, the injuries have been a big problem, but after they shut down the Pats, I was thinking Seattle would have a tough time. I think the Broncos got tired in the first half. TOP was very tilted!
They did not shut down the pats, Brady had no healthy wr except JE. Let see what happens next year when hopefully brady has his weapons healthy.
So much anticipation for this game. So much disappointment. Funny that a game like this, where almost everyone predicted a close game, turns into a total blowout, while that Pats-Giants 2007 game was a down to the wire classic…
I am very disappointed. This is the worst Super Bowl in recent memory. People thought it had the chance to be a classic as did I. I knew Manning would have his work cut out for him, but I didn't expect this! I wonder what Seattle's defensive DVOA is in the first half! Best in Super Bowl history? (better than '85 Bears?). I don't know.
I'm just rooting against a shutout at this point.
Don't blame you there. Hard to imagine a shut out.
One more comment from me: Why is Manning wearing a glove on his throwing hand? It's not cold out. The ball is floating on him like crazy.
If the glove isn't to blame, then what is it? He has been very inaccurate on mid to deep routes. I mean its unreal how bad he's missed some throws tonight. Jitters?
He's been wearing that glove all year - in preparation for this potentially very cold game. It's not the glove.
No I know, but he's made several overthrows that have been very unManning like. The Seattle pass rush is part of it, but there have been several where he's had plenty of time.
On a positive note, my wife just made some baked cheese-onion dip. It's pretty awesome.
I'm even allergic to onion, it's just that kind of night :D
I'm in real trouble now...my wife just said this is boring. Least Paul's got the cheese-dip.
The Dober-huahua Audi commercial best of the night...
Downton Abbey comes on at 9:00. The Countess of Grantham has an impressive sack rate.
I hope for everybody that this will go down as the most dominant defensive super bowl performance ever rather than the Super Bowl where Manning choked.
If Seattle gets the shut out, I would have to say it is a better performance than the '85 Bears, from the standpoint that Denver's offense is way better than the Pats in '85. That lost fumble didn't help the Bronco's or FOX's ratings.
"Denver's offense is way better than the Pats in '85."
Yeah, just a little.
Also, Peyton Manning 2013 > Tony Eason 1985.
In case anybody was wondering or felt the need to look it up.
Yeah, but Steve Grogan was miles better than Denver's backup QB...
Most prolific offense in history or Tony Eason...hmmm.
We can't know for sure until DVOA reaches back to 1985.
Don't think it is either. Manning not playing well, but Denver is misfiring all over the place, and Seattle getting it done in all 3 phases.
Thomas fumble case in point. Carrying like a loaf of bread...
Just when Denver looks like it's coming back ...
As a Cowboys fan, I have a vested interest in Denver scoring at least a TD. Cowboys still are the only Super Bowl team to limit the opposing team to just a fg. Yeah it's a reach, but I need some reason to watch this slaughter.
Yakety sax. I mean ffs... Where at the tail of the bell-curve now in terms of possible outcomes. This is getting spooky.
Any candidates for Super Bowl MVP? Anthony Kiedis is my vote, 51 years old and rocking it!
All kidding aside, any thoughts?
Jesus Christ. Who would have thought that by picking Seattle to win and pointing out that they were clearly the better team I was drastically underestimating them. God damn, this is just a clinic. Well, at least beer is still delicious.
Terrell Davis on UK TV - 'This is a butt-whipping'.
It galls me to admit it, but Irsay was right all along.
Wow...a perfect storm of Denver shitting the bed and Seattle firing on all cylinders.
Seattle is clearly the best team in the NFL right now and soon to be SB champs.
Would have liked a closer game, but it's ending with the right team on top.
It galls me to admit it, but Irsay was right all along. Two weeks of viewing Seattle game film and Peyton's master plan was to throw underneath against a defense that wants you to throw underneath?
It was mentioned in the game previews on this very site that Seattle is weakest on short passes in the middle. What would you rather they do? I don't think Denver's mistakes can be reduced to a bad gameplan.
I was not depressed about this Super Bowl until the last commercial break. Bob Dylan hawking Chrysler was the straw that broke the camel's back.
Yes, Joe. The Packers had small corners like Woodson, Al Harris, and Tramon Williams while Schneider was there. Seriously, who gives these guys their talking points?
Surprise onside kick coming up!
I could be mis-remembering, but this feels quite a bit like the Tampa/Oakland Super Bowl... are we sure that no one from Denver's staff has been standing on the Seattle sideline all game?
Also reminds me of the 1994 Mike Tyson/Don Knotts fight.
Reminds me of Super Bowl XVIII
Only danger to Seattle is all the friendly fire going on, seems like every time a second tackler comes in he drills his own guy.
Wilson will get the MVP but he shouldn't.
ANYONE on Seattle's D deserves it more IMO.
I'd just give it collectively to Seattle's defense.
It went to Malcolm Smith, who is a good choice. I favored Chancellor, but really as long as it was a Seattle defender I wouldn't really have minded which one.
I'd probably have given it to Avril, but I'm fine with Smith also.
The only thing that rubs me wrong about Smith getting it is that he probably wouldn't have without the pick-six, and Avril deserves more credit than Smith for that play.
Still, it's hard to say anybody on the Seahawks defense had less than a great game, so I can't argue too much.
Smith made the most noticeable plays. One could have made a case for Harvin as well. But this was such a close team effort that no one really stood above the crowd.
I'd still give it to Chancellor on that basis
This is going to take quite a bit of analysis to find out what the hell happened. Obviously "Defense Wins Championships" gained some more credibility, but I don't think that statement is supposed to mean "a great defense will completely destroy a great offense."
With an ass-whoopin' of this magnitude, in the most important game of the season, you have to look at the coaches, don't you? Seattle was better-prepared strategically and psychologically. Denver seemed nervous and bumfuzzled from the opening snap, literally.
Coaching is almost certainly the main factor in a blowout like this. Denver did not look ready for the intensity of Seattle's defense at all, especially the pass rush. Manning wasn't knocked down, but the Seahawk DL didn't give him much room to work with, either.
Also have to wonder what Peyton Manning is thinking right now. The AFC is there for the taking again assuming he decides to carry on, but can he bear the thought of another potential big-game humiliation at the hands of the Seahawks or 49ers next year?
I think Tom Brady with some healthy teammates will have something to say about that.
Well. Shit. In any case, I can't say I'm surprised the Broncos lost. I sure as hell can say that that I'm surprised that they came into this game looking like they were tipped onto the field from their beds and were shocked that they had a game to play. This game played out in pretty much exactly the only way that I didn't plan for, a crappy, jittery effort that plays pretty solidly into the Manning narrative. Congratulations to the Seahawks and their fans. I was pretty convinced that you were the better team, but the degree to which you were the better team sincerely surprised me.
Congratulations to Malcolm Smith (who I thought was perfectly deserving, though far from the only deserving Seahawk defender) may this usher in an era of acknowledgement of the defensive side of the ball. Also, man... Percy Harvin. His speed really is on a whole other level isn't it?
Well, a couple of things. I called for Denver's overrated wide receivers to get soundly beaten by Seattle's dbs, but this was ridiculous. I'm hesitant to even call it a professional effort by the stiffs with horses on their heads. To me, the last straw came at the end of the half, when Denver still was contemplating a competition, and Julius Thomas makes no effort at all to sell the PI on Earl Thomas Hell, if you aren't going to look like you think you can catch it, then the referee likely isn't going to call it. Really awful.
I expected Seattle to win by six, so obviously I missed something. Like, among other things, snapping the ball over the qb's head on the first snap of the game. A kickoff return which, by the way, I called just before it happened. It just seemed predictable, but I certainly didn't expect Denver to make it so easy, by looking like 11 drunks trying to find a set of car keys.
To beat Seattle, you really have to be willing and able to stand toe to toe, and trade hooks and upper cuts. There aren't many teams suited for it, and Denver ain't one of 'em.
I think it plays to the hidden variables in a defense wins championships narrative.
With a great defense, there's always the chance that they'll create a big play to separate by multiple scores; which completely tilts the field to their advantage particularly if their forte is pass defense.
If teams can't throw deep, but need to be viable deep to come back, it's not a 50% O-DVOA v a -35% D-DVOA. It's maybe a 30% O-DVOA vs a -100% D-DVOA. That's not the matchup before the opening kickoff, but it will be until the end of the game until the offense overcomes that mountain to get back on schedule.
How many analytic models or simulations have that kind of feedback built in?
In that sense, the damage from the safety might not have even been the quick points or the resulting FG, but the 4 minutes and 20 seconds of milkshake Russell Wilson drank off the clock while the Broncos gameplan was still viable. Once the Broncos got down 3 scores, they were in some deep shit.
Wait, that first drive was seriously 4:20?
Ballpark. PFR doesn't have the game data up yet. NFL.com says 14:43 to 10:25. So, 4:18.
I don't think any one thing can explain this blowout. I'd say it was a combination of a few things.
-The Broncos greatness may have been exaggerated by their schedule. If you swapped them into the NFC West for the Rams, I don't think they'd break many scoring records.
-I don't know if it's just me, but Pete Carroll coached teams seem to exhibit an interesting pattern. At times they seem like juggernauts, but they often have these inexplicable letdown games where they lose to or barely beat much weaker teams, which makes everyone question how good they really are. When they need to really show up to a game though, they usually do.
-Seattle was the luckier team, probably by a lot.
-Denver matches up horribly against the Seahawks. Seattle's strengths (like press coverage) are direct counters to Denver's strengths.
-Denver's game plan was pretty questionable from the start, and the in game coaching was very bad. Fox's early punt from the 40...yeash. Was it 20 yards of field position gained with that?
-Most important, Denver seemed to give up early. Some good examples were the poor tackling on Harvin's kickoff return and Kearse's "pinball" TD, as well as TE Thomas' poor routes. These are the kind of things that turn a solid victory into a massacre.
Anyway, I've been a Seahawks fan all my life and this is exactly how I pictured this game going, so I'm pretty happy :)
While I was not able to google stats about this, it seems like most Super Bowls with a two week layoff turn into blowouts. Perhaps the Pro Bowl needs to be played after the Super Bowl again.
Several of the Broncos bad games featured the a collection of bad (and often slightly bizarre) errors and odd bounces etc... When things started to wrong for them this year it tended to snowball, though they were also good at building up the good things the other way.
I think some of that comes from being an offensive juggernaut in a very literal sense, slowly grinding up defenses until they broke rather than a bombs away destroyer from the word go. Seattle's defense was simply too good to do that to when the little things were going wrong. Special teams (and ridiculous snaps) lead to a field position imbalance, and a very good defence playing with a lead forced bad things to happen. It was probably one of only 2 or 3 games all season where Clady's injury really showed up, but Clark was going backwards all game at LT and thr Seattle secondary was covering and tackling well enough to give no relief.
Demaryius Thomas comes out OK, he was making better plays than expected against a physical defense. The Denver front seven did well enough for much of the game. Wilson was very efficient for Seattle, Harvin was also as advertised, though he was gifted the return TD by a special teams coverage that seems surprised when the ball bounced (it seemed to freeze some of them whilst others broke lanes to run to the ball. Mike Carlson on UK TV also pointed out how Seattle essentially built a 3-4 man blocking wall by having other blockers swing around the 2 men making up the wall, something they had time to do with the bounce etc...). The Denver coaching stuff come out badly, they seemed to have no plan-B.
Congratulations to the Seahwaks, very deserving winners. I'm pretty sure the game that happened was a pretty extreme outlier in possible game-space, but also that the 'Hawks would win a lot more then they'd lose in that continuum. Will be interesting to see what the fallout is regarding Bronco's veteran players (Bailey, Manning especially) and some free agents (Decker, Moreno, DRC, Philips...).
Best team over the season won, and they were by far the best on the night. Enjoy it Seattle fans, you've got a real tough division to repeat from, good luck!
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