Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Feb 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion

Here's the in-game discussion thread for Super Bowl XLVIII, the first-ever matchup of the No. 1 DVOA offense with the No. 1 DVOA defense. Let's hope we don't have any blackouts.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 02 Feb 2014

154 replies , Last at 05 Feb 2014, 7:30pm by adbush

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Travis :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 6:13pm

Be sure join a star-studded cast of your favorite FO posters for playoff internet relay football chat!
Instructions moved to a pastebin due to overzealous spam filter: http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=Qjf3ZzvE

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Insancipitory :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:15pm

I can't be the only Seahawks fan taking Hans Zimmer's "You're So Cool" from the opening as a sign.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by adbush :: Tue, 02/04/2014 - 10:13pm

I heard that song come on and thought the same thing!
Do you know where I could find a video of the opening with that? I searched youtube for it but didnt find anything. Thanks

Ashley B

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Insancipitory :: Wed, 02/05/2014 - 4:41am

I've been looking, and I haven't found it yet.

156
Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by adbush :: Wed, 02/05/2014 - 7:30pm

oh okay! I appreciate it!
I have been looking everyday since I saw it and can't find anything!

Ashley B

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:21pm

Go Broncs! I expect Seattle to win, though. We'll have a quality Super Bowl champion either way, which is wonderful.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:27pm

Agreed. A worthy champion regardless. Allthough can anyone figure out why Broncos are laying points? I feel like the Seahawks are the (slightly) better team expecially considering the matchup.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:35pm

I posted about it in the preview thread. Essentially people are paying too much attention to the past two games for both teams, and not realizing they may not be especially predictive. Plus casual fans love offense, I guess.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:24pm

I'm absolutely falling apart. I follow a lot of different sports and consider myself a fan of a number of franchises/clubs/teams. I have never tried anything like this. My head is spinning. I alternate between feeling (a) convinced that Manning will find a way, and (b) feeling certain that the Seahawks will win by 20. I can't handle another minute of pregame chit chat. GET IT OVER WITH.

I'm sitting here alone in my appartment. In the dark. Biting my nails to the knuckles. Zach Lowe hit the nail on the head: "I watched the game alone, the best way to watch a game about which you care deeply. It’s better if no one is around to see the pacing, or hear the expletives fly. The degree of caring is embarrassing."

I'm pumped. Nervous. Confused. Embarrased by being hit by som much emotion because of sports. Mostly though I'm pumped. I think.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:29pm

I'm actually looking forward to this game. I'll be happy for either team to win. Good luck to fans of both teams.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:35pm

Props to the organizers hiring Rene Fleming to sing national anthem. Nice to hear it sung by a pro instead of a deer-in-the-headlights pop singer straining for the high notes.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:37pm

Lolwut.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:38pm

Great.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:38pm

So who had safety for first score? That was a real wtf moment.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:44pm

So that's what 'Omaha' means!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:39pm

(Double post deleted)

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:38pm

50 push-ups, Ramirez!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Lyford :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:39pm

Just Manny being Manny...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by OmicronPersei8 :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:40pm

Game over. Seattle by 40.

Damn, there's my night.

TV off. Going to bed early.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by The Ninjalectual :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:41pm

Poor Namath.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:46pm

This is worst case scenario. Yikes. I think he got that 1st down too.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:48pm

First view, live it looked short, by inches, but on reply he might have made it.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:48pm

I would go for it if Seattle doesn't win the challenge.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:49pm

Seattle and challenging of spots in super bowls.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:52pm

I hope not going for it on 4th-and-a-hair comes back to haunt Carrol. It was supposed to be Fox that was timid and conservative.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:52pm

So goes the aggressive on fourth down narrative for Seattle.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 7:58pm

Every fear coming true. Bad special teams, Percy Harvin running funky sweeps, Wilson keeping it on the zone read, Chancellor laying big hits on recievers who can only get open within 3 yards of LOS. Total disaster so far.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:01pm

As an aside from the game, I approve the commercial music so far. Hot Chocolate's You Sexy Thing. Yazoo's Situation. Doesn't get much better.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:03pm

After early game jitters, Wilson is looking good. I'd be nervous if I were a Denver fan.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:06pm

Yes, Wilson is looking pretty sharp. Having sat through 3 losses in 4 years 20+ years ago I'm not that nervous anymore though since the two wins in a row. But it isn't looking good, a stop here though and to be only 8 down would be not so bad.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:04pm

No idea why that wasn't grounding, never had a chance of reaching the receiver and Wilson was not being held at the time... Oh well.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Perfundle :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:07pm

If being an uncatchable ball was enough grounds for grounding, there'd be 10 times as many calls as there are now. It just has to be within the general area of a receiver.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:09pm

Yeah, I know, but when a ball barely gets halfway there and doesn't reach scrimmage that is pushing the general area thing to its limits. But they almost never get called for that kind of thing.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by The Ninjalectual :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:22pm

The ball doesn't have to reach the LOS because there was a nearby receiver also behind the LOS.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:08pm

Reckon that pass was about 6 inches forward. If it goes directly sideways though that is a fumble isn't it?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:14pm

You are correct. I thought at first it was a good challenge. But on the replay it was obvious the ball did go ever so slightly forward. You would think that on a high stakes game like this (or any NFL game) teams would hire guys to immediately check plays.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:17pm

Yeah, the reply looked pretty obvious to me, close but a bad challenge.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:11pm

Good play by Irving gives Denver something.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:11pm

Being down only 8 here is a miracle...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:15pm

Is it just me, or does the crowd seem pro-Seahawks?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:17pm

Well they do have more to cheer for.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:22pm

That is true. But it has seemed really loud when Denver has been on offense. I haven't noticed the crowd as much when Seattle has had the ball.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:24pm

Based on the noise levels during drives, seems like that to me as well.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:25pm

(double post deleted)

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:20pm

Right now it's pretty tough to imagine the Broncos getting any offense. There is nothing. Manning is getting moved around in the pocket and nobody is getting open.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by The Ninjalectual :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:24pm

Out of the frying pan, into the fire for Denver. After a quarter, they've seen what, 7 plays? How are they supposed to make adjustments when they don't even know what they're doing on defense yet?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:24pm

I hate to brak it to the 'Hawks but they aren't running it anywwhere it on obvious running downs.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:27pm

Sadly that isn't making much difference to the state of the game.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:33pm

An ad with Tim Tebow that wasn't annoying. Almost as surprising as the score.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:34pm

An ad with Tim Tebow that wasn't annoying. Almost as surprising as the score.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:37pm

I was glad to see he's comfortable making fun of his image.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:39pm

Multiple post deleted

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:35pm

a commercial with Tim Tebow that isn't annoying. Almost as surprising as the score.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:37pm

Speaking of annoying... :D

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by young curmudgeon :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:42pm

so much for my wife's ipad. Its back to the desktop for me.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:38pm

Why have the Seahawks started blitzing. Seems a little too cute.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by SFC B :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:39pm

Watching the SB from a hotel in Germany is interesting. No commercials.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:40pm

I think the Seahawks have to be encouraged on that incomplete deep pass. A younger Manning (or present day Rodgers) completes that pass.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:42pm

Malcolm Smith gets the gift memory of a lifetime.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:42pm

Goodnight. This is like those 80's Broncos Super Bowls.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:45pm

Such mixed feelings watching this game so far. Watching the Seahawks administer a beatdown like this makes me wish the Patriots had won two weeks ago.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:46pm

Looking at the reply, Moreno only turned round after the ball was thrown. He probably didn't pick up the off trajectory of the ball, whereas Smith was watching it all the way.

And if Holliday's knee was not down this is likely game over (if it isn't already). Looks to me like it shouldn't stand up to review.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:48pm

It's over. How in the holy hell do you even begin to come back from this? This could be shutout.

Here's your complementary Trindon Holliday fumble, I hope you've enjoyed you stay here at the Mile High-Inn.

Figures that when we finally get to legit teams in the SB, it's the first blowout of the last ten years.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by miqewalsh :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:51pm

Denver can still score in a hurry. If they get themselves together, a 22-point lead is not safe.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by anotherpatsfan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:54pm

Still "only" 3 scores despite the fact the game has an "this is over" feel. Could be worse if Seattle got TDs instead of FGs. Need 6 here.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:55pm

OK, if Denver get flagged for that PI in the endzone then that was a PI downfield.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by miqewalsh :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 8:59pm

TMQ applauds going for it on 4th-and-2.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:03pm

Hey we missed the parallels between the opening play safety and the Devin Hester return in Mannings first SB.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:04pm

That was a mistake. Should have taken the figgie.
Reminds me of the Colts/Pats championship game in 06. Similar first-half stomping by the Pats. Dungy called for a field goal on 4th down at the end of the half. 3 points made a difference in the end. Plus, putting some points of the board had a good psychological effect. Especially when the alternative is a turnover on downs, sending your team to the locker room with nothing but bad vibes.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:10pm

Yeah nothing bolsters moral like a stalled drive in a 22 point game.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:10pm

I disagree. Even if they didn't make it.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:33pm

Yep, because reducing a three touchdown advantage to… still needing three touchdowns to lead is so, so valuable. Seriously, I'm amazed that anyone on this website is arguing for taking three there. When even John Fox thinks you being too cautious, that's a bad sign.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:54pm

That's why I mentioned the Colts/Pats championship game. In this particular situation, I would have taken the field goal. No strategy fits every situation.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:12pm

So can i still get Cliff Avril as MVP at 100:1?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:15pm

The conventional wisdom was that the game would be decided by the Seahawks offense against the Broncos defense; the world's-best Denver O and Seattle D would cancel each other out. That analysis sure seemed legitimate to me.
However, this game so far has truly featured a contest between the great Hawks D and the Broncos O, with the Hawks winning handily.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by drillz :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:16pm

its now beaste mode timeL "run when you're winning" right?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:19pm

Right!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by drillz :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:16pm

its now beaste mode timeL "run when you're winning" right?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:20pm

I disagree.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by jacobk :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:26pm

I think it's "play action bomb" time, myself.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by drillz :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:17pm

its now beaste mode time "run when you're winning" right?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by anotherpatsfan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:25pm

maybe

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by drillz :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:17pm

its now beaste mode time "run when you're winning" right?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by anotherpatsfan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:26pm

maybe not

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:34pm

Broncos could use a turnover on this possession....

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:35pm

Percy!!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:37pm

TMQ just typed "game over."

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:35pm

Ubelievable. No really: I can't believe this.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:35pm

GAME OVER!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by mehllageman56 :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:36pm

Oh my god, this game is really over. I'm having flashbacks to the 1980s. Hopefully someone else in the AFC can be competitive in the Super Bowl in the next ten years.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:46pm

Broncos with more fit defenders might be more competitive, some of the plays have been a bit fluky against them. Not saying that Seattle aren't good value for a win though, I'm a Broncos fan who expected the Seahawks to most likely win, though not quite like this!

The problem of the facing the great defense is that once things go wrong in a must win game it really can snowball.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:51pm

Agreed, the injuries have been a big problem, but after they shut down the Pats, I was thinking Seattle would have a tough time. I think the Broncos got tired in the first half. TOP was very tilted!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by amin purshottam :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:16am

They did not shut down the pats, Brady had no healthy wr except JE. Let see what happens next year when hopefully brady has his weapons healthy.

Amin purshottam

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by amin purshottam :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:16am

They did not shut down the pats, Brady had no healthy wr except JE. Let see what happens next year when hopefully brady has his weapons healthy.

Amin purshottam

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:38pm

So much anticipation for this game. So much disappointment. Funny that a game like this, where almost everyone predicted a close game, turns into a total blowout, while that Pats-Giants 2007 game was a down to the wire classic…

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:38pm

I am very disappointed. This is the worst Super Bowl in recent memory. People thought it had the chance to be a classic as did I. I knew Manning would have his work cut out for him, but I didn't expect this! I wonder what Seattle's defensive DVOA is in the first half! Best in Super Bowl history? (better than '85 Bears?). I don't know.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:41pm

I'm just rooting against a shutout at this point.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:46pm

Don't blame you there. Hard to imagine a shut out.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:43pm

One more comment from me: Why is Manning wearing a glove on his throwing hand? It's not cold out. The ball is floating on him like crazy.

If the glove isn't to blame, then what is it? He has been very inaccurate on mid to deep routes. I mean its unreal how bad he's missed some throws tonight. Jitters?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:48pm

He's been wearing that glove all year - in preparation for this potentially very cold game. It's not the glove.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:55pm

No I know, but he's made several overthrows that have been very unManning like. The Seattle pass rush is part of it, but there have been several where he's had plenty of time.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:45pm

On a positive note, my wife just made some baked cheese-onion dip. It's pretty awesome.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:48pm

I'm even allergic to onion, it's just that kind of night :D

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:48pm

I'm in real trouble now...my wife just said this is boring. Least Paul's got the cheese-dip.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by anotherpatsfan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:57pm

The Dober-huahua Audi commercial best of the night...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:04pm

Downton Abbey comes on at 9:00. The Countess of Grantham has an impressive sack rate.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 9:55pm

I hope for everybody that this will go down as the most dominant defensive super bowl performance ever rather than the Super Bowl where Manning choked.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:00pm

If Seattle gets the shut out, I would have to say it is a better performance than the '85 Bears, from the standpoint that Denver's offense is way better than the Pats in '85. That lost fumble didn't help the Bronco's or FOX's ratings.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cro-Mags :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:07pm

"Denver's offense is way better than the Pats in '85."

Yeah, just a little.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by RickD :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:10pm

Also, Peyton Manning 2013 > Tony Eason 1985.

In case anybody was wondering or felt the need to look it up.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Lyford :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:40pm

Yeah, but Steve Grogan was miles better than Denver's backup QB...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cro-Mags :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:42pm

Most prolific offense in history or Tony Eason...hmmm.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by DRohan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:27pm

We can't know for sure until DVOA reaches back to 1985.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by anotherpatsfan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:02pm

Don't think it is either. Manning not playing well, but Denver is misfiring all over the place, and Seattle getting it done in all 3 phases.

Thomas fumble case in point. Carrying like a loaf of bread...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:00pm

Just when Denver looks like it's coming back ...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:02pm

As a Cowboys fan, I have a vested interest in Denver scoring at least a TD. Cowboys still are the only Super Bowl team to limit the opposing team to just a fg. Yeah it's a reach, but I need some reason to watch this slaughter.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:03pm

Yakety sax. I mean ffs... Where at the tail of the bell-curve now in terms of possible outcomes. This is getting spooky.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by cowboyinenemyte... :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:07pm

Any candidates for Super Bowl MVP? Anthony Kiedis is my vote, 51 years old and rocking it!

All kidding aside, any thoughts?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by The Hypno-Toad :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:07pm

Jesus Christ. Who would have thought that by picking Seattle to win and pointing out that they were clearly the better team I was drastically underestimating them. God damn, this is just a clinic. Well, at least beer is still delicious.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:09pm

Terrell Davis on UK TV - 'This is a butt-whipping'.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by karystrance :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:10pm

It galls me to admit it, but Irsay was right all along.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by karystrance :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:10pm

It galls me to admit it, but Irsay was right all along.

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by CoachDave :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:11pm

Wow...a perfect storm of Denver shitting the bed and Seattle firing on all cylinders.

Seattle is clearly the best team in the NFL right now and soon to be SB champs.

Would have liked a closer game, but it's ending with the right team on top.

Game. Ovar.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by karystrance :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:11pm

It galls me to admit it, but Irsay was right all along. Two weeks of viewing Seattle game film and Peyton's master plan was to throw underneath against a defense that wants you to throw underneath?

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by Cythammer :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:24pm

It was mentioned in the game previews on this very site that Seattle is weakest on short passes in the middle. What would you rather they do? I don't think Denver's mistakes can be reduced to a bad gameplan.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by karystrance :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:12pm

It galls me to admit it, but Irsay was right all along. Two weeks of viewing Seattle game film and Peyton's master plan was to throw underneath against a defense that wants you to throw underneath?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:16pm

I was not depressed about this Super Bowl until the last commercial break. Bob Dylan hawking Chrysler was the straw that broke the camel's back.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:17pm

Yes, Joe. The Packers had small corners like Woodson, Al Harris, and Tramon Williams while Schneider was there. Seriously, who gives these guys their talking points?

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by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:17pm

Surprise onside kick coming up!

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:18pm

Yes, Joe. The Packers had small corners like Woodson, Al Harris, and Tramon Williams while Schneider was there. Seriously, who gives these guys their talking points?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by dbostedo :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:36pm

(deleted dup)

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by dbostedo :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:29pm

I could be mis-remembering, but this feels quite a bit like the Tampa/Oakland Super Bowl... are we sure that no one from Denver's staff has been standing on the Seattle sideline all game?

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by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:18pm

Also reminds me of the 1994 Mike Tyson/Don Knotts fight.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Steve B :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:26pm

Reminds me of Super Bowl XVIII

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Cro-Mags :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:32pm

Only danger to Seattle is all the friendly fire going on, seems like every time a second tackler comes in he drills his own guy.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by CoachDave :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 10:56pm

Wilson will get the MVP but he shouldn't.

ANYONE on Seattle's D deserves it more IMO.

Cam, Avril...Smith...Clemons...

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:00pm

I'd just give it collectively to Seattle's defense.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:14pm

It went to Malcolm Smith, who is a good choice. I favored Chancellor, but really as long as it was a Seattle defender I wouldn't really have minded which one.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:21pm

I'd probably have given it to Avril, but I'm fine with Smith also.

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by DavidL :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:36pm

The only thing that rubs me wrong about Smith getting it is that he probably wouldn't have without the pick-six, and Avril deserves more credit than Smith for that play.

Still, it's hard to say anybody on the Seahawks defense had less than a great game, so I can't argue too much.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:37pm

Smith made the most noticeable plays. One could have made a case for Harvin as well. But this was such a close team effort that no one really stood above the crowd.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by DRohan :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:41pm

I'd still give it to Chancellor on that basis

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Paul R :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:14pm

This is going to take quite a bit of analysis to find out what the hell happened. Obviously "Defense Wins Championships" gained some more credibility, but I don't think that statement is supposed to mean "a great defense will completely destroy a great offense."

With an ass-whoopin' of this magnitude, in the most important game of the season, you have to look at the coaches, don't you? Seattle was better-prepared strategically and psychologically. Denver seemed nervous and bumfuzzled from the opening snap, literally.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 02/02/2014 - 11:29pm

Coaching is almost certainly the main factor in a blowout like this. Denver did not look ready for the intensity of Seattle's defense at all, especially the pass rush. Manning wasn't knocked down, but the Seahawk DL didn't give him much room to work with, either.

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by BJR :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:16am

Also have to wonder what Peyton Manning is thinking right now. The AFC is there for the taking again assuming he decides to carry on, but can he bear the thought of another potential big-game humiliation at the hands of the Seahawks or 49ers next year?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by amin purshottam :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:22am

I think Tom Brady with some healthy teammates will have something to say about that.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by The Hypno-Toad :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:56am

Well. Shit. In any case, I can't say I'm surprised the Broncos lost. I sure as hell can say that that I'm surprised that they came into this game looking like they were tipped onto the field from their beds and were shocked that they had a game to play. This game played out in pretty much exactly the only way that I didn't plan for, a crappy, jittery effort that plays pretty solidly into the Manning narrative. Congratulations to the Seahawks and their fans. I was pretty convinced that you were the better team, but the degree to which you were the better team sincerely surprised me.
Congratulations to Malcolm Smith (who I thought was perfectly deserving, though far from the only deserving Seahawk defender) may this usher in an era of acknowledgement of the defensive side of the ball. Also, man... Percy Harvin. His speed really is on a whole other level isn't it?

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by Will Allen :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 1:21am

Well, a couple of things. I called for Denver's overrated wide receivers to get soundly beaten by Seattle's dbs, but this was ridiculous. I'm hesitant to even call it a professional effort by the stiffs with horses on their heads. To me, the last straw came at the end of the half, when Denver still was contemplating a competition, and Julius Thomas makes no effort at all to sell the PI on Earl Thomas Hell, if you aren't going to look like you think you can catch it, then the referee likely isn't going to call it. Really awful.

I expected Seattle to win by six, so obviously I missed something. Like, among other things, snapping the ball over the qb's head on the first snap of the game. A kickoff return which, by the way, I called just before it happened. It just seemed predictable, but I certainly didn't expect Denver to make it so easy, by looking like 11 drunks trying to find a set of car keys.

To beat Seattle, you really have to be willing and able to stand toe to toe, and trade hooks and upper cuts. There aren't many teams suited for it, and Denver ain't one of 'em.

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by Insancipitory :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 3:59am

I think it plays to the hidden variables in a defense wins championships narrative.

With a great defense, there's always the chance that they'll create a big play to separate by multiple scores; which completely tilts the field to their advantage particularly if their forte is pass defense.

If teams can't throw deep, but need to be viable deep to come back, it's not a 50% O-DVOA v a -35% D-DVOA. It's maybe a 30% O-DVOA vs a -100% D-DVOA. That's not the matchup before the opening kickoff, but it will be until the end of the game until the offense overcomes that mountain to get back on schedule.

How many analytic models or simulations have that kind of feedback built in?

In that sense, the damage from the safety might not have even been the quick points or the resulting FG, but the 4 minutes and 20 seconds of milkshake Russell Wilson drank off the clock while the Broncos gameplan was still viable. Once the Broncos got down 3 scores, they were in some deep shit.

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by the K :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 6:13am

Wait, that first drive was seriously 4:20?

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by Insancipitory :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 6:58am

Ballpark. PFR doesn't have the game data up yet. NFL.com says 14:43 to 10:25. So, 4:18.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by ooter :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 1:46am

I don't think any one thing can explain this blowout. I'd say it was a combination of a few things.
-The Broncos greatness may have been exaggerated by their schedule. If you swapped them into the NFC West for the Rams, I don't think they'd break many scoring records.
-I don't know if it's just me, but Pete Carroll coached teams seem to exhibit an interesting pattern. At times they seem like juggernauts, but they often have these inexplicable letdown games where they lose to or barely beat much weaker teams, which makes everyone question how good they really are. When they need to really show up to a game though, they usually do.
-Seattle was the luckier team, probably by a lot.
-Denver matches up horribly against the Seahawks. Seattle's strengths (like press coverage) are direct counters to Denver's strengths.
-Denver's game plan was pretty questionable from the start, and the in game coaching was very bad. Fox's early punt from the 40...yeash. Was it 20 yards of field position gained with that?
-Most important, Denver seemed to give up early. Some good examples were the poor tackling on Harvin's kickoff return and Kearse's "pinball" TD, as well as TE Thomas' poor routes. These are the kind of things that turn a solid victory into a massacre.

Anyway, I've been a Seahawks fan all my life and this is exactly how I pictured this game going, so I'm pretty happy :)

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 5:17am

While I was not able to google stats about this, it seems like most Super Bowls with a two week layoff turn into blowouts. Perhaps the Pro Bowl needs to be played after the Super Bowl again.

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Re: Super Bowl XLVIII Open In-Game Discussion
by TimK :: Mon, 02/03/2014 - 5:45am

Several of the Broncos bad games featured the a collection of bad (and often slightly bizarre) errors and odd bounces etc... When things started to wrong for them this year it tended to snowball, though they were also good at building up the good things the other way.

I think some of that comes from being an offensive juggernaut in a very literal sense, slowly grinding up defenses until they broke rather than a bombs away destroyer from the word go. Seattle's defense was simply too good to do that to when the little things were going wrong. Special teams (and ridiculous snaps) lead to a field position imbalance, and a very good defence playing with a lead forced bad things to happen. It was probably one of only 2 or 3 games all season where Clady's injury really showed up, but Clark was going backwards all game at LT and thr Seattle secondary was covering and tackling well enough to give no relief.

Demaryius Thomas comes out OK, he was making better plays than expected against a physical defense. The Denver front seven did well enough for much of the game. Wilson was very efficient for Seattle, Harvin was also as advertised, though he was gifted the return TD by a special teams coverage that seems surprised when the ball bounced (it seemed to freeze some of them whilst others broke lanes to run to the ball. Mike Carlson on UK TV also pointed out how Seattle essentially built a 3-4 man blocking wall by having other blockers swing around the 2 men making up the wall, something they had time to do with the bounce etc...). The Denver coaching stuff come out badly, they seemed to have no plan-B.

Congratulations to the Seahwaks, very deserving winners. I'm pretty sure the game that happened was a pretty extreme outlier in possible game-space, but also that the 'Hawks would win a lot more then they'd lose in that continuum. Will be interesting to see what the fallout is regarding Bronco's veteran players (Bailey, Manning especially) and some free agents (Decker, Moreno, DRC, Philips...).

Best team over the season won, and they were by far the best on the night. Enjoy it Seattle fans, you've got a real tough division to repeat from, good luck!