Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Sep 2011

Texans Swap: Johnson for Foster and Tate

Hello all,

I have been offered a trade: I would give away Andre Johnson for Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Important things to know are that the league is points-per-reception and points-per-carry. My team is as such:

QB: Matt Ryan
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Stevie Johnson
WR: Mike Willaims
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Peyton Hillis
TE: Antonio Gates
W/T: Rob Gronkowski
W/R: James Starks
W/R/T: Santana Moss
DEF: Chicago
DEF: Philadelphia
K: Robbie Gould
BN: Nate Burleson, Robert Meachem, Kevin Kolb, Rex Grossman,
BN (continued): Houston DEF, Reggie Bush

I have a waiver pending add Daniel Thomas and drop Rex Grossman. Will probably drop Reggie Bush if I find a suitable receiver instead.

I've thought about the issue already and these are the pros/cons I've come up with:

Pros:
1. I have the depth to replace Andre if necessary -- Calvin Johnson can't hawk all of the Lions touchdowns forever and Burleson has been getting respectable catches and yardage. Picking up Denarius Moore or even somebody like Scott Chandler would let me free up Santana Moss if I don't want to start Burleson.
2. Peterson/Hillis/(Tate/Foster) and hopefully Thomas is insane depth at RB. Peterson and Hillis are must starts, if Thomas repeats Week 2 frequently he's a must start, and I'm always willing to put chips on the Texans run game this year. This gives me a pretty solid core and guarantees consistent points throughout the year. WRs are more prone to be inconsistent anyways.

Cons:
1. Foster's return -- will Foster/Tate split carries? I'd rather have Johnson if they're splitting 50/50; Johnson is one of the most reliable WRs in the game and I'm not thrilled to trade him when a committee is in town. Johnson practically functions as a running back himself he's so consistent.

If I knew 100% that Foster or Tate would get the bulk of the carries, I would probably be confident to OK this trade. I was wondering if you guys had additional insights.

Posted by: belicheckyoself on 21 Sep 2011

3 replies , Last at 21 Sep 2011, 10:18pm by fantasy1123

1
Re: Texans Swap: Johnson for Foster and Tate
by fantasy1123 :: Wed, 09/21/2011 - 8:28am

I agree with your concerns about Tate and Foster. Tate is looking really good and it very well could be a RBBC when Foster returns. Kubiak is also irritatingly unpredictable in his decisions. The Texans are anticipating being in the playoffs and will most likely keep Foster out until he's 100%. However, even if the dynamic duo end up splitting caries, they still would be a heck of a one two punch as the Texans are probably the most proficient run offense. Both could produce RB1 or RB2 numbers. I worry about Hillis this year. His YPC are down and the Browns are talking about limiting his touches. He also has a brutal playoff schedule, (Bal wk 13 and Pit wk 14).

2
Re: Texans Swap: Johnson for Foster and Tate
by belicheckyoself :: Wed, 09/21/2011 - 9:35am

OP here. Update from waivers -- I was able to add Johnathan Stewart, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Daniel Thomas for Rex Grossman, Kevin Kolb, and Reggie Bush.

Fantasy1123 -- for the first few weeks this would be an advantageous trade because Ben Tate will put up RB1 numbers and Andre Johnson will either match it or do less (maybe the Saints can keep him from the endzone). Do you think that starting both (one as RB, one as flex) is a solid option given my other available backs? If I didn't have anything I'd leap at this trade, but I feel like now I've gotten a lot of depth.

I also offered the counter-offer of Stevie Johnson for the pair, but I don't think the owner will take it.

3
Re: Texans Swap: Johnson for Foster and Tate
by fantasy1123 :: Wed, 09/21/2011 - 10:18pm

I agree. With the RB depth that you've acquired, I would hold onto A Johnson. I think your team will be more balanced by not doing the trade.

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