Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 Sep 2009

Tim Tebow and the Lewin Career Forecast

Last year around draft time the general consensus among the McShay's, Kiper's, and Mayock's was that Tim Tebow was not an NFL Quarterback and that if he had left Florida he may have had a chance being drafted in the 3rd round or later as a TE or Wildcat QB. However, I heard Mel on with M&M this morning talking about Tebow trying to get into the 1st round as a QB, which made me wonder if perhaps the evaluations are changing on Tebow. This made me think of the Lewin Career Forecast System for QB's.

If you look at Tebow from the LCF perspective, by my calculation he currently has 29 starts, so with his start at Tennessee he will have hit 30 and by the end of the year (assuming no injuries, which is always a dodgy assumption) should have 40 college starts under his belt (I'm also assuming Florida will go to a Bowl, which certainly seems like a rather safe bet). Also, his career completion percentage up to this point at Florida is 65.6 percent, so barring him deciding to turn into Kyle Boller for his last 10 Collegiate games, he's fairly certain to end well north of 60%.

Assuming he is projected by scouts to be a day one prospect (which, admittedly, is the biggest assumption in this diatribe, considering the concerns last spring regarding his arm strength and ability to function outside of a shotgun spread option attack), he looks awfully good from a Lewin Forecast System perspective. Any thoughts?

Posted by: 2manyids on 18 Sep 2009

3 replies , Last at 02 Dec 2012, 8:52pm by Randi

Re: Tim Tebow and the Lewin Career Forecast
by Dan :: Fri, 09/18/2009 - 6:59pm

I have doubts about using the LCF for QBs who are taken early on the basis of their running ability. Is Tebow a first round passer? Was Young? If not, then the scouts aren't playing the same filtering role for dual threats that they do for passers, so I would expect them to underperform their Lewin forecast.

We can revisit this at the end of the season when he's actually logged those starts so that we can see what the scouts think of him then.

Re: Tim Tebow and the Lewin Career Forecast
by lyly10388 :: Thu, 11/18/2010 - 3:09am

Thanks you for the post.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis
by Randi (not verified) :: Sun, 12/02/2012 - 8:52pm

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