Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Jul 2010

Top Heavy AFC, Bunched Up NFC

According to the FOA mean projections, the top five teams in the NFL are in the AFC (Baltimore, Indy, NE, Pitt, and NYJ) as well as 5 of the worst 6 teams (Houston, Cincy, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Oakland), with Detroit being the worst. Could have a lot of gawdy final records in the AFC.

In the NFC, there's only a 1.6 game mean projection difference between the best team (Atlanta, 9.6 wins) and the 10th best team (Tampa Bay, 8.0 wins). With so many teams bunched up, a couple lucky or unlucky bounces of the ball could lead to some surprising NFC playoff teams.

Posted by: crw78 on 09 Jul 2010

2 replies , Last at 11 Jul 2010, 10:34am by John

Re: Top Heavy AFC, Bunched Up NFC
by ammek :: Fri, 07/09/2010 - 4:47pm

NFC #s 11-13 aren't far behind either. The computer seems to have thrown up its hands in despair at all the parity and regression-to-mean going on in the NFC. If you were buying the book for its team projections, you'd be a) a fool and b) pretty cheesed off.

Re: Top Heavy AFC, Bunched Up NFC
by John (not verified) :: Sun, 07/11/2010 - 10:34am

Hasn't this been true for years now? The NFC seems to be constantly changing.

Just out of curiosity, I looked at the regular season records of each team for the last 4 years.

The NFC teams that have had a winning record for 3 of the last 4 years:
Philadelphia, Dallas

AFC teams?
New England, New York Jets, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego

The AFC has a consistent, elite set of teams across all divisions; the NFC doesn't.

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