Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Oct 2009

Turner trade

I am in a 10 team, 10 keepers per team league.

I have some depth at RB (MJD,Barber,McGahee,Portis,McFadden, Turner) I have been offered a few deals for Michael Turner.

Steve Smith (NYG)
Schaub
1st round pick(essentially 100th + pick)

for

Turner

and

Slaton
Berrian

for
Turner

and

B. Marshall
J. Cutler
1st round pick (same as above)

for
Turner

Would you do any of these. Which one do you like best?

Posted by: kb1171 on 07 Oct 2009

4 replies , Last at 07 Oct 2009, 11:23pm by Snowglare

1
Re: Turner trade
by Fontes of Wayne :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:42am

Right now, I'd rather have Schaub + Smith than Cutler + Marshall (though that could be as much personal bias as subjective evaluation of their fantasy talents), so trade 3 is out.
For the rest of this year, I'd rather have Slaton than Turner, so getting Berrian as well is a nice throw-in. Going forward, it's hard to predict, but between MJD, Barber, and McFadden, you've got up to three other potential keepers at RB, so picking between Turner and Slaton for the fourth is academic right now.

Without knowing the rest of your roster, I can't tell whether you'd actually do any of these deals. I think either of the first two are doable if you need the help at WR. Just remember that you're actually trading Turner + a bench spot in every case, which makes you less flexible if someone on the waiver wire suddenly breaks out. If you have a really deep league, though, that's less of an issue.

2
Re: Turner trade
by kb1171 :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:27pm

Thanks for the Reply. The rest of my roster is

QB-Rivers

WR-A. Johnson
G. Jennings
J. Knox
N. Washington

TE-O. Daniels

I don't really need a QB which is why I am hesitant to make a deal that includes one but I like Smith. I think he is top 10 WR the rest of the way.

And I think Turner is probably a little better than Slaton (they run more) this year but next year is up in the air. I also worry about having so many Texans on the team.

3
Re: Turner trade
by Fontes of Wayne :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 3:08pm

Well, you're essentially giving up Turner + Washington (or Knox, I'm just guessing at which one you'd drop) for any of those deals. As long as you keep that in mind, you can make the decision.
The Schaub/Smith trade requires you to make a second deal (i.e., move a QB) next week to get full value. Would you trade Turner straight up for Smith + the first-round pick? If it's close, Schaub would put it over the top.
I would take the Slaton/Berrian trade, and I've told you why that is. If you disagree about the relative values of the RBs, you might not want to do this; it's your team, after all.

4
Yes
by Snowglare :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:23pm

I'd make any of those trades. Schaub/Smith looks the best. Slaton/Berrian is close, but I think a good backup QB is worth cutting a lower tier player like Knox. So is Berrian, though, and you can always use more RBs. Cutler/Marshall's the only iffy one, and I still like the pair over Turner, especially as keepers.

I wouldn't worry about too many Texans. I had four last year (five while I had their kicker), and it didn't hurt me. Wish I had Schaub right now instead of Romo, which would put me at four Texans until I cut Brown again. Having three Cowboys has hurt me, but only because they've all played poorly. If I had the right ones, I'd be fine.

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