30 Aug 2009
Hey all, this is not actually my first post; I've been posting as "c_f" for a while now, but without an account.
Anyhow, every year Michael Silver has a comically bad "Ultimate Mock Draft". It's a thought exercise in which, as far as I can tell, NFL teams suddenly lose all their players and every single person on earth is eligible for selection in a massive re-draft. Contracts disappear into thin air, too.
(His latest masterpiece is at http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ms-thegameface041709&prov=yhoo&typ... )
Silver wrote that piece merely to provoke discussion, but I think we can do him one better. If such a draft were actually held, presumably the players selected would be those who would contribute the most over the remainder of their respective careers. If I correctly understand the concept behind WAR (in baseball), GMs would select players based on who has the most WAR remaining over his career or at least 5/6 years of a contract.
Consequently, young promising QBs would go like hotcakes, followed by elite young defenders and maybe some promising left offensive tackles. Tradeoffs would have to be made between older "sure bets" and younger "upside" picks. (For instance, Matt Ryan might have more WAR remaining than Philip Rivers, but Ryan is less of a known quantity so we go with the safer pick in Rivers.)
Here's my guess for the first 16 picks:
QB Rivers, Philip 27
QB Cutler, Jay 26
QB Ryan, Matt 24
QB Rodgers, Aaron 25
QB Roethlisb., Ben 27
DE Williams, Mario 24
QB Palmer, Carson 29
QB Brees, Drew 30
QB Flacco, Joe 24
OLB Ware, DeMarcus 27
DE Allen, Jared 27
QB Schaub, Matt 28
QB Romo, Tony 29
NT Ngata, Haloti 25
OLB Merriman, Sha. 25
OLB Suggs, Terrell 26
(Way to go, NC State!)
I figure Palmer and Brees have enough left in the tank to be "drafted" sixth and seventh respectively. None of the young left tackles has been consistently dominant to merit a top-16 selection, but maybe Joe Thomas or Ryan Clady would be worth it. DE Trent Cole (26) and NT Vince Wilfork (27) would surely come off the board soon after the top 16.
Guards, Centers, and DBs are certainly not worth considering so early in such a "draft."
Where would aging stud defenders like Kevin Williams (29), Shaun Rogers (30) or Richard Seymour (29) go? What about suddenly-great Haynesworth (28)?
Where do adequate but unexciting QBs like Eli Manning (28), Jason Campbell (27), or Trent Edwards (25) go?
I know we all like to pooh-pooh running backs, but Adrian Peterson is an amazing talent; should he go in the first "round"?
Patrick Willis is another generational talent at middle linebacker; where does he go?
What do the sharp minds of FO commenters think of this list? Of this bizarre exercise?
2 replies , Last at 03 Sep 2009, 2:13pm by tuluse