Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Jul 2012

Undervaluing Wide Receivers

After compiling seasonal VOB data from 2007-2011 I've found that KUBIAK 2012 has substantially undervalued the projected VOB points for WRs this year. NB: This is using PPR data. I can't see any clear explanation for this. Anyone?

WR Data:
http://gyazo.com/370327cc2bb8076a7d116e29dcc421ae

RB Data (as a comparison):
http://gyazo.com/7d7e0b0f99e1fc699d7d7fa1d6dc0161

Posted by: lf_11 on 14 Jul 2012

4 replies , Last at 17 Jul 2012, 4:02am by Zheng

1
Re: Undervaluing Wide Receivers
by frievalt :: Sat, 07/14/2012 - 5:50pm

I'll posit a guess:

Basically what you're saying is "The 20th WR is significantly closer to the #1 WR than in years past," and I find this to be accurate. Just looking at my KUBIAK results I have guys like Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant and DeSean Jackson ~20)

In years past, go-to-guys were more prolific. Last year was the year of the "I thought this guy was gonna be the #2" receiver. Especially on the super-elite outlier offenses (NE, GB, NO) (Colston-Graham, Welker-Gronk/Hernandez, Jennings-Jordy ), but also you had big-time fantasy pairs like

cruz/nicks... roddy/julio... mike wallace/antonio brown... dez bryant/laurent robinson... maclin/desean...

The league's "offensive explosion" is generally overstated, most of the growth is actually coming from a few high-passing-volume, super-effective outliers (NE, NO, GB). Their pass-catching options are utterly polluting the fantasy landscape.

2
Re: Undervaluing Wide Receivers
by frievalt :: Sat, 07/14/2012 - 5:57pm

On a related note, I've found the opposite conclusion to be true in my 14 team league.

Never has my KUBIAK been so WR crazy at the top end of the draft.

20 out of the first 37 points-over-baseline guys are wide-outs. (.5 ppr/2RB/3WR/1TE/1QB)

3
Re: Undervaluing Wide Receivers
by nkowal :: Mon, 07/16/2012 - 9:01am

To me, this makes sense due to the fact that RB is top-heavy and then gets scary, and WR is relatively deep this year.

4
Re: Undervaluing Wide Receivers
by Zheng :: Tue, 07/17/2012 - 4:02am

It makes sense to me because you're trying to fill 3 WR positions (and no flex) in a 14-team league. .5 PPR helps close the raw point gap with the RBs too.

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