Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Aug 2011

Useless QB's?

I'm in a league with some pretty strange scoring settings (deflated TD values, lots of negative points for turnovers and even getting sacked). When I put these settings into Kubiak, there isn't a single quarterback who is more valuable than $0.00. This is clearly false - it has to be worth $1 to get Vick instead of Kerry Collins, right?

Also, any idea how I should interpret this in my auction draft tomorrow night? Just wait on QBs?

Posted by: atwilson0328 on 30 Aug 2011

8 replies , Last at 31 Aug 2011, 4:56pm by jabrch

Re: Useless QB's?
by Key19 :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 1:12am

I'm personally inclined to think that you'd almost be better off not having a QB at all than having a bad one. Sounds like a bad day could end up resulting in negative points. I'd say try and target a cheap game-manager. Maybe somebody like Flacco. Or Big Ben, because he's actually a very good QB who is undervalued. Both QBs have easy schedules (face NFC West), so INTs (and turnovers in general) should be among the lowest in the league for them.

Re: Useless QB's?
by Paydro70 (not verified) :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 3:49am

This is sort of hard to imagine. The only way no quarterbacks are worth more than $0 is if no quarterbacks score points (like by the end of the year, they actually have registered a 0 or below), or if the difference between the best and worst is so small as to be meaningless.

If it's the former, then I guess don't draft one and leave the roster spot blank, and then quit your league because the rules are stupid.

If it's the latter, you should still probably quit your league, but it means QBs are like kickers... nominate ones you prefer to keep, but allow everyone else to pay $2 if they want and just take #10 (or however many teams you have).

Re: Useless QB's?
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 1:52pm

I agree with Paydro. Quit your league. It is dumb. :-)

If all QBs have a zero or negative value on your team, then the thing to do is draft a QB who you absolutely know has no chance of having a negative value....so draft the third stringer in New Orleans or SD....someone with virtually no chance of playing...and if the #1 or #2 gets injured, quickly go find a different #3 who has no chance of playing...

Then - quit your league.

Re: Useless QB's?
by atwilson0328 :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 2:03pm

Here's the thing - QBs definitely do have value. The rules (as they affect QBs) are:

1 point for 25 yards passing
1 points for 10 yards rushing
3 points for passing TD
4 points for rushing TD
-2 points for turnover
-1 point for sack

So they're harsh, but not insane. Very rarely does a "startable" QB get negative points. This is why I'm worried about how KUBIAK is interpreting the rules. It's also giving some pretty insane auction values for the top players, e.g. $140 (out of $200 budget) for Arian Foster.

Re: Useless QB's?
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 2:12pm

You need to redo your data entry. There's something not right about those results given those inputs.

Re: Useless QB's?
by tally :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 3:04pm

Yeah, using those values and KUBIAK's default auction details ($100 budget, 50 cent minimum bid), the top QBs are coming in at $23 or so, or about 2/3 the value of the top RBs, which isn't out of the ordinary.

Re: Useless QB's?
by atwilson0328 :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 4:35pm

Hmm... could this be one of the bugs that come from running KUBIAK in OpenOffice? I've noticed a couple bugs but nothing like this before now.

Re: Useless QB's?
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 4:56pm

Entirely possible - but I know there should be significantly different numbers coming back that what you are saying.

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