Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Aug 2012

Using KUBIAK for trade evaluations

Does anyone use KUB for evaluating trades? I'm guessing that you would add the total value over baseline before & after to determine if trade is good/bad????? Any other thoughts?

Posted by: pack4life on 21 Aug 2012

2 replies , Last at 25 Aug 2012, 4:33am by socctty

Re: Using KUBIAK for trade evaluations
by Zac :: Wed, 08/22/2012 - 12:05am

If you've already got your whole team drafted, then you might as well do the total Fantasy Points (column CN) for your projected starting lineup both before and after the trade. Generic replacement level is great when you don't have the information, but in this case, taking your teams strengths and weakness into account (remembering that the idea is to get the most points scored by your starters).

Re: Using KUBIAK for trade evaluations
by socctty :: Sat, 08/25/2012 - 4:33am

In a pinch I've done what you suggest OP, but I think we could do better than that.

One approach you may want to take is to compare the difference in total FPOB between your best starting lineup before and after the trade. For instance, you could envision a scenario in which you might be getting more FPOB in the trade than the other person, but if the players you receive are players at positions that won't be starting over players you already have, then have you really gained anything at that position?

Conceptually, you're making a new baseline, comparing players not just to a replacement-level player at their position league-wide, but instead comparing them to your "Before" roster.

I suppose this approach doesn't do much if you're trading for your injury-prone RB's backup, and it's probably useless if you're trading the same number of players at the same positions (ie a WR&RB trade for a WR&RB). But if someone is sending you a TE and a QB for a RB and a better QB, then I think this approach would be useful.

I think this is more or less what Zac above was suggesting.

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