Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Sep 2010

On the value of Projections

I want to do something very simple. But I have no idea how to go about it.

I want to compare ESPN's preseason projections for the last ten years to player's actual performance in each season.
My gut feeling is that in a shocking number of cases ESPN overhyped players and failed to accurately predict sleepers or rookies. But I would love to be surprised to know that they aren't making it all up as they go.

Does anyone have the data?

Posted by: jeffathon on 03 Sep 2010

2 replies , Last at 05 Sep 2010, 11:03am by DrG

Re: On the value of Projections
by Ten Drink Drunk :: Sat, 09/04/2010 - 1:11pm

I have no idea where to find that data, but I would love to see it.

Re: On the value of Projections
by DrG :: Sun, 09/05/2010 - 11:03am

Somewhere around August 10 this year, the Fantasy Football Librarian posted 'expert' rankings re most of the major sites' projections for the last 3 years. Not as much depth as you would like, but a start.

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