Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Sep 2009

Week 1 Open Discussion Thread

With the arrival of the college season comes a new board for discussing its games. You can talk about all the debuting freshmen in here.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 02 Sep 2009

16 replies , Last at 07 Sep 2009, 9:38pm by Will

1
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by Kevin 11 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 1:56pm

It has been 238 long days since last season’s Bowl Championship Series title game.

Tonight is the night…College Football kicks off with an already pivotal game between Oregon and Boise State. If the Broncos win, they’re set to run the table and we’ll all have an Autumn of Misery with the pro-Boise crowd wrongfully complaining that the Broncos deserve a shot at the national championship. Go Ducks.

The earlier game features on of my surprise teams for 2009- the North Carolina State Wolfpack. They’re a darkhorse, but I would not be surprised to see this team win the ACC. Other surprise teams: Arkansas, Illinois, USF, and Houston.

Two teams I’m forecasting to disappoint are Oklahoma and Alabama. They have talent but both teams have to rebuild their offensive lines and I’m picking each to finish third in their brutally tough divisions.

Michigan’s woes will continue, and they’ll finish eighth in the Big Ten.

Ole Miss has had an odd offseason, going from everyone’s darling in February to being labeled as overrated all summer. Fact is, Ole Miss is really good, and they could go 11 -1, beat Florida in the SEC title game, and play for the national title- they’re that good.

The other media darling is Georgia Tech. They’re overrated.

Here’s my preseason Top 25:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Southern Cal
4. Mississippi
5. Penn State
6. Oklahoma State
7. LSU
8. Oklahoma
9. Georgia
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. California
13. Ohio State
14. Nebraska
15. Clemson
16. Iowa
17. North Carolina
18. TCU
19. Oregon
20. Pittsburgh
21. Illinois
22. Boise State
23. Miami
24. Arkansas
25. Georgia Tech

2
Re: Georgia Tech
by Brian Fremeau :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 5:07pm

I really like Georgia Tech. I actually think they might be underrated nationally. I know the bowl game was ugly, but the first half field position was freakishly unbalanced in that game -- outplayed, sure, but I don't think it was indicative of the teams. And the 400+ rushing days late in the year were more like where I think this team is headed.

3
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by Rocco :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 7:11pm

Great start by the Wolfpack.

4
Re: South Carolina/NC State
by Brian Fremeau :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 7:57pm

The Wolfpack field position deficit is staggering so far -- all from that first fumble.

5
Re: South Carolina/NC State
by Rocco :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 9:28pm

I've been flipping between this game and the Steelers/Panthers preseason game but it appears to be a crapfest between two mediocre to lousy teams.

6
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by Brendan Scolari :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 1:45am

LeGarrette Blount is an absolute punk. I hope that guy is done for the season. What an embarassing night for Oregon.

7
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by DavidL :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 11:17am

I came away from the Oregon/Boise game wondering how either of those teams managed to be nationally ranked. Oregon was just putrid in all phases of the game (and is now going to be missing their star running back if there's any justice in the world), while Boise committed a season's worth of unassisted fumbles in one game.

8
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by myteam.gt.yourteam (not verified) :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 11:52am

I agree that Oregon looked bad. They simply weren't ready to play in any phase of the game (and they weren't ready to handle defeat, either). It will be interesting to see how they deal with this. Will they suck it up and learn, or spiral out of control?

Boise looked very strong. First-game fumbles mean little to me. They dominated on both sides of the ball; only their special teams were lacking.

9
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by DavidL :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 4:05pm

Yeah, they dominated, but they dominated a team that "simply (wasn't) ready to play in any phase of the game." If they'd turned in the kind of performance that gets 13 points in 24 minutes of possession against a competent opponent, we wouldn't be talking about domination.

10
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by Eddo :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 8:55pm

Would it be possible to link direct to this discussion from the Extra Points page? Personally, I scan all Extra Points for "new comment" alerts, and I passed this one up after the first time I read it.

11
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by Dennis :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 10:30pm

Score another one for the Mountain West. I know everyone will say Bradford was injured, but he doesn't play defense and BYU came up with the big drive with the game on the line. It keeps getting harder to claim the Mountain West is inferior to the BCS conferences.

12
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by utvikefan (not verified) :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 11:32pm

Yes, if the Mountain West could just play with the big boys like Oklahoma or Alabama, maybe they would get some respect. Or not, BCS RULES!

13
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by Alternator :: Sun, 09/06/2009 - 12:02am

The Mountain West just *did* play with the "big boys" like Oklahoma, and spanked them like young toddlers.

14
Re: Week 1 Open Discussion Thread
by MC2 :: Sun, 09/06/2009 - 12:50am

I was glad to see Oklahoma lose (mainly because I'm tired of hearing that idiotic homer Skip Bayless blathering endlessly about how they should be favored against the field to win it all). However, I think it's a bit of a stretch to say that BYU "spanked them like young toddlers", considering that it was a one-point game that easily could have gone either way. To me, it said more about how overrated Oklahoma is than how underrated BYU is.

15
Early weeks of the season...
by Justin :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 9:27pm

Maybe this type of post doesn't belong in this exact section, but here it goes anyway: does anyone else think the opening week or two of the football season allows for some advantageous betting opportunities? In theory because no one, including the odds makers, really knows what to expect from the teams. I’m guessing the odds makers are just basing their lines off of last year’s statistics. What do you think?

16
Re: Early weeks of the season...
by Will :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 9:38pm

The oddsmakers are basing their lines to try to get the same amount of bets on each side of the line. This usually correlates to how they see the game, but that's not always the case.

Will

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