Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Nov 2009

Week 11 RBs

Any advice on who to start this week? Standard Yahoo! scoring, no PPR. Start two...

AP v. SEA
Thomas Jones @ NE
Beanie Wells @STL
Moreno v. SD
Justin Forsett v. MIN

AP is starting obviously, but I'm considering starting Wells over Jones due to match ups. I drunkenly dropped Julius Jones for Forsett while watching the Hawks this last Sunday. A no go this week, but hopefully a viable option moving forward (assuming J.J. stays hurt... not that he has made a compelling case for the starting job anyway). Thanks in advance for any advice here.

Posted by: Ten Drink Drunk on 19 Nov 2009

3 replies , Last at 19 Nov 2009, 6:49pm by tomdrees

1
Re: Week 11 RBs
by tomdrees :: Thu, 11/19/2009 - 12:05pm

Dropping Julius Jones for Forsett is like dropping a "no" for a "maybe." It shouldn't matter in either case unless all of your other RBs get hurt. I wouldn't even be comfortable starting the Hawks' RBs against Detroit next week.

Depending on your record and how badly you need a win this week, it might be good practice to start relying on Wells given the Cards' schedule down the stretch. Then if he lets you down you can be once bitten and twice shy about it now instead of during the playoffs. Jones is more consistent, Wells has a higher ceiling and a better matchup.

2
Re: Week 11 RBs
by DaveP :: Thu, 11/19/2009 - 5:25pm

I like Tom's last point. I'd start Wells this week and see how it works, unless your matchup calls for the consistency.

I'm facing the same general issue. Lost Ronnie and Clinton this week due to
injuries. I'm starting Mendenhall and DeAngelo but am looking for a third back.
I managed to grab Wells and Snelling and at the moment, could drop Portis and get Betts who is still available. Any ideas if Portis will come back or is dropping him for Betts (not a keeper league) a good play? Which of the three would you start/want on your team for the rest of the year?

Dave

3
Re: Week 11 RBs
by tomdrees :: Thu, 11/19/2009 - 6:49pm

Betts is banged up a little himself, but did WAY better against Denver than anybody expected. Could be a sign of the Shermans in DC showing flashes of play-calling competence (i.e., finally just running the ball). I'd drop Ronnie for Betts if you still have him on the roster, though. Forsett might also be a good idea if available (if Betts is, Forsett probably is). Jamal Lewis is also looking shaky healthwise against the Lions this week, and with Cribbs out, Jerome Harrison might not be a bad pickup if available. As for dropping Portis for Betts, it's not the worst thing you could do if you're desperate, but it's not like the Skins are facing too many cupcakes that would magically make Betts (or Portis) into an auto-start anyway. I'd say pick Betts up and drop him after he has a shaky outing (6 or less) in a start.

As a guy who did not do a good job evaluating RB talent in his draft and/or trades, it's weirdly fun to see all of these workhorse backs drop like flies. All of a sudden I look like a genius just because I was holding on for dear life with Ricky and LeSean.

Edit: And definitely keep Wells. The Cardinals are playing the UFC teams during weeks 14-16.

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