Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

287
Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:38pm

Wow, awesome awesome awesome trick play.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:41pm

And another blown coverage on Branch leads to a long touchdown to inflate Brady's stats. Christ. Maybe teams should start regarding him as a legitimate threat?

Attention DBs: Deion Branch is actually pretty good.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:48pm

Branch is great if you don't bother to cover him.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:39pm

The Patriots are just ridiculous right now. They look better than their 16-0 season.

And they have like half the picks in the first three rounds next year too.

34-0 now, blown coverage by bears who look like they don't know what hit them. It could have been worse, great punt return TD was already called back.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by JCutler6 :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:11pm

Pats are ridiculously good

Bears are ridiculously bad

Absolutely shocking, even the special teams are dismal

Not to take anything away from Brady, but the Pats O-Line is unbelievable. You won't get a bigger contrast between O-Lines than in this game

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RichC (not verified) :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 12:38am

"Not to take anything away from Brady, but the Pats O-Line is unbelievable. You won't get a bigger contrast between O-Lines than in this game"

I'm utterly amazed by people who think the Pats O-line is something special. Brady is one of the better QBs in the league at avoiding pressure, and he still gets hit more often than most. They're above average, but there are probably 7 or 8 lines in the league that pass block better than the patriots, and probably 20 that run block better than they do.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:41pm

Touchdown Jay Feely, first cardinal to score a TD in 2+ games. I know the Broncos are down, but the cards have blown leads before.

They are setting up a script for Tebow.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Q (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:43pm

The Pats are very good but also lucky. 3 dropped INT's and a fumble return for a TD when the receiver lands on the defender's foot.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:47pm

They have been EXTREMELY lucky this year. But that's largely a function of having so much of an edge in preparation and almost every other area. It's not always luck when the other team is demoralized because you're simply beating them up and down the field.

But yeah. Two near picks immediately precede a TD pass that was actually well underthrown. But there wasn't a defender within 5 yards, so it didn't matter.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 2:03am

I guess they prepared better than the Packers already for next week, as it was surely NE preparation that sent next week's opposing QB (Rogers) out of the game and like out for a few weeks with a concussion today.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by JonFrum (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:13pm

Not 3 'dropped' INTs. Three tips that the defender touched.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:44pm

Last three heavy snow games:

47-7 vs the Super Bowl Cardinals
59-0 vs Tennessee
33-0 at half vs 9-3 Bears

How are they consistently this much better prepared for the snowy field than the other teams? And how did Chicago not expect this?

I am just in awe of the Patriot way. It makes me sad that I root for one of their rivals. They're just so much better.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:55pm

I understand the domination of the Cardinals, a warm weather team.
The Titans have a bit less of an excuse - it does snow in Tennessee from time to time.

The Bears have absolutely no excuse. It's their home field!! They're not in Foxboro!!!

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:46pm

Apparently the real 49ers finally showed up today.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:57pm

Are they punching the opponent in the mouth?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Deelron :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:14pm

They did, as did the real Seahawks.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by dmb :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:46pm

I'm not watching it, but I thought that somebody ought to mention that the 49ers have managed to put up 37 points in 31 minutes of game time.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Jonadan :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:52pm

Did Chip Kelly take over as O-coordinator between the college season and bowl game?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:54pm

Interesting stat. At the half:

Patriots - 33 pts

Bears - 33 yds

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:56pm

Ug. Cards center cut thumb. bleeding all over the ball. Results in back-to-back botched snaps (cards recover each) before they pull him.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:58pm

Boy that Chicago pass rush sure is ferocious.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 6:59pm

Grr...and the CBS affiliate in DC has decided that local football fans would rather watch Jets-Dolphins than the rout in Chicago. Can't say I blame them, but I want to watch the rout!!

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RichC (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:07pm

Yeah. Toughest part of being a displaced fan... every once in a while you get a game, and then it gets switched out.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:08pm

NFL Sunday ticket. You can watch whatever game you choose.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:09pm

Bears finally score. Bellicheck is probably pissed off at this development.

The bears should have worn their white uniforms. It would help camouflage them from patriot defenders. And their fans.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:11pm

Brady is probably out there telling his team about those two missed TD opportunities the last two drives.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:19pm

Dolphins have Jets on the ropes, up 7 and driving for at least a FG, and Henne drops the ball on 3rd and long. Jets recover.

I don't think the Jets offense has done much today, though. Sanchez looks bad, and the Dolphins are getting a lot of pressure.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:19pm

I don't want to sound like a whiny Pats hater (I'm not), but Matt Light has been ineligible downfield on almost every WR screen they have run.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Athelas :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:22pm

Colts fan?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:05pm

Yeah.

I'm aware Jeff Saturday does it all the time too.

I don't dislike New England though. I'm just sad that the Pats took advantage of a down year in the NFL (overall no team is without major weakness) while my team just got hurt and fell apart.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Athelas :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:07pm

I know the feeling--and I don't hate the Colts anymore. I'm not sure when that happened.

Really hate the Jets though--HOLD ON DOLPHINS!

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:25pm

As a Pats fan, I don't mind the Colts. I just mind the guy who does their color commentary for highlight packages coming out of their home stadium; his screechy hick voice is so bloody annoying.

I actually feel kind of bad for Manning this year, but I certainly hate Polian and his personnel structure.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Spielman :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:59pm

That seems to be one of those things that's called very, very rarely compared to how often it actually happens for any team.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by BSR :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 10:19pm

I don't think it is a penalty as long as the pass doesn't cross the line of scrimage and they don't start blocking before the pass is caught.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Pilkington (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:20pm

For about the fourth time, the Patriots gain big yardage on a screen to Welker. You'd think the Bears might have scouted that play or something.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:23pm

Apparently a player is allowed to interfere with a fair catch, at leasts if he's wearing a Jets uniform.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:24pm

For just a moment there, Henne was 5-12 for 55 and Sanches 10-24 for 110.

Then Henne went to 5-13 and screwed the whole thing up.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Gus (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 10:32pm

Hahaha I love this comment.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RichC (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:29pm

One of the Jets staff just tripped one of the dolphin's players while he was running down the sideline.

Guess LT's class is rubbing off on everyone.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:30pm

Dolphins special teamer is running downfield to cover a punt. He's running out of bounds along the Jets' sideline. One of the Jets coaches nudges his knee just a little bit forward to trip him and bring him to the ground.

Classy.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Athelas :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:31pm

Guyton interception--slowing down the Bears fabulous comeback.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:47pm

I guess the "fire your coach to win a game" trick didn't work for Denver.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Shattenjager :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:53pm

And next week the "Put in Tim Tebow to win a game" trick won't work, either. If they win another game this year or any games next year, I will be surprised.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:55pm

I think Cutler just thought he played for the Pats. There's really no other explanation for why he just tossed it softly directly to the wide open non-moving Patriot defender standing alone in the end zone. Wow.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Deelron :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 7:55pm

Deon Butler just got carted off for Seattle on a late meaningless touchdown catch, his right leg was kicked pretty hard while he was flying through the air.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Q (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:02pm

Stupid decision by Rex Ryan to kick a FG, down by 7 (10-3) with 5:30 left in the game

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:05pm

OK, Jets down by 4 late in the game..they need to get a TD.

I wonder if the Dolphins can play better defense than the Texans did under similar circumstances.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:08pm

Dolphins prove that yes, they can play better defense than the Texans. Jets go 3 and out.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Athelas :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:13pm

Nice return Cromartie.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:16pm

Here is our chance to see if the Jets have truly had the horseshoe removed from their ass. They got a 5 yard penalty and have plenty of time, but they do have their work cut out for them.

If they can get a win with the way Sanchez has played today, they're just plain blessed, no way around it.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by JonFrum (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:19pm

What will the Patriots do without Moss 'taking the top off' the defense?

So much for 'experts.'

And how about the 'Randy Moss makes Wes Welker' meme? Welker is lined up for another 100 reception year - breaking J. Rice's record. And he has a shot at another 1000 yard season. Not bad for a guy who only got numbers because Moss drew double coverage.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:19pm

Not bad for a guy coming off a torn up knee.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Athelas :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:20pm

And the Jets' fans turn on their own.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:21pm

Cameron Wake sacks Sanchez on 4th and long to seal the Dolphins' victory.

In past two weeks, with the season on the line, against their top two divisional rivals, the Jets' offense has put up a total of 9 points.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:27pm

And yet they still have a leg up on everyone for a wild card. I think they basically only need to beat Buffalo in order to clinch, since they have all the tiebreaks over the Dolphins. Not sure what'd happen if they and SD both finished 10-6 though.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:38pm

If the Chargers and Jets both go 10-6, the Chargers would win the 6 seed, unless the Chiefs are 9-7, then the chargers win the AFC West and the Jets get the 6 seed.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:14pm

The Jets still have road games in Chicago and Pittsburgh. If they cannot beat Miami at home, can they win either of those games? 9-7 will not be enough.

And really, if the only win they can get in their last 5 games is against Buffalo, what hope would they have as a wildcard?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Jonadan :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 8:52pm

Riddle me this:

Hightower has 148 yards and two TDs on 18 carries.
Skelton is 15/37 for 146 yds.

Why did Skelton throw the bal 37 times?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Spielman :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:40pm

Because Ken Whisenhunt is still in denial about Kurt Warner being gone.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Helter Skelter (not verified) :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 12:38am

Hightower compiled almost all of those stats in the 4th quarter when the team was trying to kill clock. I know both TDs were in the 4th and at least 70 yards.

I don't know why they passed so much with Skelton except that he was playing better than Orton.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by DEW (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:00pm

I looked at ESPN's score page, showing the score and the passing/rushing/receiving leaders for DEN/ARI, and could not for the life of me figure out how the Cardinals could have so utterly stomped Denver with Skelton heaving the ball up 37 times to no effect. Then I checked the box score and saw the turnover margin, and all became clear...

...but Feely kicked 6 FGs, 3 XPs, and *ran for a touchdown*? Whoa.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:22pm

This is hilarious...from the box score

FG 04:35 Jay Feely 36 Yd 3 3
SECOND QUARTER DEN ARI
FG 11:50 Jay Feely 48 Yd 3 6
TD 04:02 Jay Feely 5 Yd Run (Jay Feely Kick) 3 13
FG 00:02 Jay Feely 55 Yd 3 16
THIRD QUARTER DEN ARI
FG 09:40 Jay Feely 23 Yd 3 19
FOURTH QUARTER DEN ARI
FG 14:55 Jay Feely 49 Yd 3 22

Jay Feely personally scored 22 points in a row!! (Excuse the bad columns)

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:28pm

Jay Feely cannot be stopped, he can only be contained.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Athelas :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:52pm

I was peeking in on a Jets messageboard and heard complaints about their losing great players like Woodhead and Feeley.
giggle

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Spielman :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:36pm

Oh god, that's brilliant. The Cardinals have finally found their answer on offense.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:39pm

TD 04:02 Jay Feely 5 Yd Run (Jay Feely Kick) 3 13

Hilarious.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Otis Taylor89 :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:54am

I would hope 22 points in a row would be the most since at least 1970.

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Vick pass to Jackson
by Smose (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:34pm

60 yards, 30 seconds. So for the briefest moment, Vick is on pace to throw for 7200 yards tonight.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Marko :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 9:39pm

Congrats, Pats fans. That was one of the most thorough ass kickings that I have ever seen. Kind of like the polar opposite of Super Bowl XX (at least Bears fans will always have that to remember).

The good news is that the loss by the Packers to the Lions probably helps the Bears' division title chances more than a win by the Bears would have if the Packers also had won. The Bears can now clinch the tie-breaker over the Packers with a win over the Vikings next week in Minnesota (or Detroit or wherever the game ends up being played). That means that if the Patriots beat the Packers next week in New England, the Bears can wrap up the division by beating Minnesota.

The Packers' loss also means that even if the Bears lose their next two games, they can still win the division by beating Green Bay in the last game of the season regardless of what the Packers do the next two weeks.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Go Birds! (not verified) :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 10:26pm

The refs really let everyone kick the crap out of Vick. If I was a D coach facing the Eagles I would use that to my teams advantage by pushing the limit taking shots on Vick every chance I got.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Rocco :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 10:29pm

When Vick was in his heyday, he'd get that call where Spencer blasted him along the sidelines with no hesitation.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 12/12/2010 - 10:38pm

After Vick crosses the line of scrimmage, technically he's a running back, not a QB. He doesn't get the same protection that a QB in the pocket would get. Of course, even a RB would attract a flag for getting hit out of bounds, and he can always slide to avoid a hit.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Danger Dan (not verified) :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 1:33am

If I was a D coach facing Vick, I'd issue nylon cord to every player.

What? Too soon?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Brent Hutto (not verified) :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 7:56am

Well I guess pretty early in the SNF game Andy received the answer to his complaints about Vick getting hit. That non-call right in and among the Eagles on the sideline sounds like "STFU Andy", innit?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 8:16pm

Favre inactive. Let the Tavaris Jackson era begin. Again.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 8:37pm

I think that Rice controlled the ball, but because it moved while he was controlling it, it wasn't worth a challenge. Not enough to overturn.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 8:55pm

Third drive, Tavaris and Peterson collide knees on a hand-off. Both collapse to turf in agony, both being looked at, timeout.

Talk about a disastrous play.

For 3rd down Joe Webb comes in and chucks it downfield to Rice, who almost brings it down in double coverage but doesn't.

We'll see next series.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:02pm

They show a montage of Eli's interceptions vs Vikings (0-4, 10 interceptions) and right on cue he throws another one (2nd tonight).

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:15pm

Giants hold after INT. after punt, they run 77 yards, then 2 more runs to 1 inch line. Coughlin decides to challenge that Bradshaw didn't get in on the last one. I dont' think anyone doubted they'd punch it in with one more run. But challenge it is. Don't think he'll get it either.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:19pm

Sure enough challenge fails.

On 3rd down, as play starts flag flies in. Vikings D-line almost seems to stop, as if expecting false start or illegal procedure. Easy walk-in TD for giants as the penalty was defensive offside.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:32pm

This game is just painful to watch. Penalties every other play. Not personal fouls, just holds, false starts, inellible downfield, illegal procedure, etc.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:45pm

Shouldn't there be a 10 second run-off with the penalty? Or is that only in the end of the 4th quarter?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:52pm

only if the clock is running. it wasn't.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by aRX (not verified) :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 10:29pm

What a terrible rule change. Bobble, fumble, pinned to THE BODY OF THE DEFENDER, but apparently the "opportunity to make the fair catch" extends beyond all logic. Awful, AWFUL rule change, I can't even imagine wtf they were thinking.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 10:50pm

That was always the rule on fair catches. I remember this rule being applies over a dozen years ago.

The change was that before this, in addition to that it would have been a penalty on the Giants. The rule change was that yes, the Vikings keep the ball, but no penalty on the Giants.

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by aRX (not verified) :: Mon, 12/13/2010 - 11:01pm

You sure about that? The Fox crew (and the officiating guy they bring in for calls like this) said it was a new rule, and they did indeed call an interference penalty...

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Tue, 12/14/2010 - 1:38am

Yes, I'm sure.

Old rule: Penalty gives Vikings ball and 15 yards.

New rule: Vikings ball and no yards.

NFL 2010 Rules Changes Video. Go to the 6:40 mark of the video, they explain this exact change in detail, saying how it was before and how it is now.

Transcript:

"the next change involves the penalty for interference to catch a muffed kick. After a valid fair catch signal the opportunity to catch a kick does not end if the ball is muffed. The player who signaled for the fair catch must have a reasonable opportunity to catch the muffed kick before it hits the ground without interference from kicking team players. In the past, when this occurred, it was a 15-yard penalty from the spot of the interference. Beginning in 2010 when this occurs, the receiving team will be awarded a fair catch at the spot of the interference, but no penalty yardage will be assessed."

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Maximum :: Tue, 12/14/2010 - 1:14am

What if when the Ravens got the ball back with 12 seconds left in regulation, they spiked twice and then ran play clock and called timeout. The defense was clearly exhausted and although they won the toss if they had not I think fatigue could have been a major hindrance on the first drive of OT. If you spike twice you give your defense an extra 5 minutes or so to get rested and then you can just kneel on 3rd cause the Texans cannot stop the clock. Obviously this is a unique situation but am I wrong?

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Re: Week 14 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Tue, 12/14/2010 - 5:59am

I think so, yes. The play where Matt Schaub (!!) beats Jared Johnson to the corner, is indicative of how badly the D needed to get some air. They ran the Give-Up-Draw anyway, IIRC, so might as well have given the D a rest.

Consecutive drives of 99 and 95 yards plus a twopoint conversion to tie the game against the Ravens (tired or not) is quite impressive.

The look on the Ravens' defenders' faces, as they sat on the bench awaiting the cointoss, was pretty funny, as it can best be described as: bewildered. It seemed they were shocked anything like that could actually happen.

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