Talk amongst yourselves
8/29: WAS QB
8/27: DEN WR, JAC IDP, NE WR, PIT WR, SF IDP
8/26: ATL WR, BAL RB, DEN RB, DEN K, HOU RB
* * * * *
The 2015 KUBIAK fantasy football projection workbook updates all preseason for only $20 -- or get it absolutely free with a $10 first-time deposit at DraftKings.com. Purchase it here!
08 Dec 2013
Discuss this riveting Jaguars-Texans game. And I suppose other games too, if you can even bear to think about them.
Posted by: Rivers McCown on 08 Dec 2013
208 replies , Last at
10 Dec 2013, 8:11pm by
Not sure if I'll be able to tear myself away from this riveting matchup to post any thoughts on the game on here. Or I might take a nap.
You could always watch The Sound of Music Live.
Nap it is!
I'm praying for Heidi.
Klum? Yeah, me too.
whahaha - good one
Don't get why this was picked for a primetime game. This couldn't have looked like a compelling matchup eight months ago, and Houston's collapse doesn't make it any more interesting.
Well, Thursday Night games aren't really primetime. They generally suck because teams have little time to rest and get ready for the game, so they end up sloppy. Usually the games are what the other networks were willing to let go of (aka, one of the early games), so no true marque match-ups usually end up on here. So, divisional game between Houston and what is sometimes a reasonably competitive Jags team. Of course, not this year, for both teams.
I think with the expansion of the Thursday night schedule, every team in the league got at least one night game. So that's how the Jaguars got this game. And the Texans won the division, so this probably was expected to be one of the more interesting games on the Jaguars' schedule.
Mattock just stated the problem with Gabbert has been staying healthy. Um, no.
I suppose it could've been a subtle insult. "The problem with Gabbert is he plays when he's healthy, so it's too bad he's generally healthy." :)
Dupe. Both the comment and often me.
And a Schaub sighting. I haven't watched a lot of Houston this year, is Case Keenum just too green, or does he not have consistency? I know his run backwards from the sack is an issue, but not what his other ones are.
Saw Tainer's post on the various emergency QBs that are playing. Decently answered my question.
And somehow it's not a horrid game (at least the outcome is in doubt late). As I understand it Schaub came in late-3rd period, and as of late-4th he has nearly 200 yards passing on 26 attempts. Extrapolating that out to an entire game, he'd have passed for about 800 yards on 100 attempts. Bledsoe/Brees/Stafford illness? Trying to make up for lost time? Or just a horribly one-sided attack?
Okay, things tailed off as the game ended. Schaub had a few more attempts but no more completions (to his own team, that is). Pro-rated for playing time, he would have racked up 625 yards on 85 attempts. And then his arm would have fallen off. That's how things go in an 11-game losing streak.
Oh Matt... It had been so long, and we've been basking in the art of the Wheeden, that we had forgotten that you bring the opportunity to witness a QB pull a "Schaub"
So, with 2:32 to play, HOU with no time outs, the Jags facing 3rd and 11 on their own 49, and Henne completing less than half his passes...they throw, and incomplete, giving Houston the two-minute warning and over twenty seconds.
Then Schaub promptly throws a pick. Some games are shootouts where the last team with the ball wins, but this one's more like who can be the last team to make a mistake. I almost wish they were trying to tank the game rather than just being this incompetent.
Note also, that if the Jags hold on, they'll be two games ahead of Houston with the head-to-head tiebreaker and three to play. They will have *clinched* at least third place, and actually have a mathematical possibility of passing Tennessee for second (JAX plays Buffalo, Tennessee (in Jacksonville) and Indy, while TEN plays at Denver, Arizona at home, at Jacksonville, and then hosts Houston, so...I can actually see both teams tying at 6-10 or 5-11 and the Jags getting the tiebreaker by beating the Titans and ending in second place. @_@ )
I actually saw an analysis today, I forget where, in which the writer figured a way the Texans could make the playoffs as a WC at 6-10. If it would work for them, why not the Jags? Win-out, have all the right teams lose, and screw up your draft for next year.
I like your use of clinched--must use it next time I run a race with my 13 year-old. "Ah, the old man clinches second place!"
Jaguars make the playoffs at 7-9 if:
* they win out
* Titans lose to Broncos
* Browns lose to Bears, beat Steelers, Jets
* Jets beat Raiders, Dolphins, lose to Panthers
* Steelers beat Dolphins
* Raiders lose to one of the Chiefs, Broncos, or Chargers
* Dolphins lose to Patriots or Bills
* Chargers lose any two of four against Giants, Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs
* Ravens lose to Patriots, Bengals and either Lions or Vikings
There may be other scenarios. It's actually not totally unrealistic...
Impossible, no. Unrealistic, absolutely. They had less than 0.1% playoff probability going into Thursday's game, maybe it's up to 0.2% now. Let's say a 1/500 chance.
If the Dolphins beat the Steelers, then the Jags are eliminated. The Jags were probably getting 300-1 at the beginning of the season to make the Super Bowl. If they're 500-1 to make the playoffs at this moment, I would call that unrealistic.
After this weekend, I am pretty sure this is the Jaguars only path to the playoffs. There are different ways it can happen, but all of the following have to be true.
*Jags Win Out
*San Diego wins no more than 1 more game
*Pittsburgh wins no more than 2 more games
*Miami and Baltimore win no more games
*Jets beat Miami but lose the rest of their games
*Oakland doesn't win out (I'm pretty sure if everything else above is true, but Oakland wins out, everyone but Oakland and Jax would get eliminated at step 3 of the tie breaker formula, then Oakland would move on because they have the Head to head over Jax)
That puts it at a Multi-way tie at 7-9, with no head to head sweep, and where Jacksonville, oddly, has the best conference record.
I wish the Jags had pulled out a game or two earlier on in the season. We could have the threat of one of the worst teams ever making the playoffs.
I continue to be amazed by the Texans ability to narrowly lose all of their games, no matter if they're playing one of the worst teams in the league or one of the best (see their games against the Seahawks, Patriots, and Chiefs).
Even their wins were equally narrow, with dramatic last-second comebacks! Only the Baltimore, San Fransisco, and St. Louis losses were blowouts.
They are the Temple Owls of the NFL.
I can't even fathom how far the Texans have fallen. You could see the wheels coming off at the end of last year though. They've never had primetime or postseason chops and Schaub has never been the same since being injured in 2011 (or maybe he is just finally rearing his ugly head as a QB). I feel like the real crime here is the torturing of Andre Johnson. Been with the team since 2002 and has consistently been one of the top 5 receivers in the league. Humble guy and I'll always love him for handing it to Finnegan last year. Feel bad for Johnson.
Be sure join a star-studded cast of your favorite FO posters for internet relay football chat!
Instructions moved to a pastebin due to overzealous spam filter: http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=Qjf3ZzvE
Crazy snow in Baltimore. FIrst series for the Ravens they get close to first down yardage on 3rd down, but the refs bring in the chains and have no idea where to put them because the ground is covered in snow.
Who turned into the Detroit, Philly game to watch two power house offenses only to laugh at the intense snow that is going to likely stifle both of them.
Me. I like seeing how teams adjust in these kind of situations.
Also it is a bit like watching ghosts play football.
My lord--I'm happily watching the Patriots game when my son comes running in--"Turn on the Eagles game--you can't see a thing!"
The network is superimposing the yard lines on the screen so it looks like the ghost players are under the field. So strange!
After a long completion Megatron had to take a play off to dump all of the snow out of his helmet. No one can get any traction, so every play looks like slow-motion. I really like it for variety, but this is much more boring than the modern game.
So far, the Eagles are better at going 3 and out and the Lions are better at fumbling.
Bizarre call on fumble review in Vikings game. Dude clearly down, reviewed ref says fumble stands. Was about as clear as its going to be. Also no idea why they are playing in this if they supposedly care about injuries.
And now Adrian Peterson leaves the field on a cart. Knee?
I'm not a Vikings fan, but football is better with Adrian Peterson is playing, and it would just be depressing if it's a serious injury.
Apparently he is having Xrays on his ankle but is walking.
Is there any indication messy fields lead to more injuries? It should lead to lower speeds of impact and the lack of traction might mean feet can't get stuck and rolled over so easily.
I would think it would make some injuries more likely. Others less likely, here will be few injuries cAused by having a planted foot stick in the ground. On the other hand you Are a lot more likely to lose your footin and come down awkwardly. I would think generally being on an unfamiliar surface.
This will sound facetious, but does anyone else think that the Lions are enjoying a serious advantage by having white uniforms? Visibility is so bad and that blue trim doesn't really jump out much. I would not play zone defense if I was the Eagles.
I agree--I think a receiver could get lost out there.
I'm red-green colour blind so when I play Madden I have to alter the uniforms because I struggle to see some of the home uniforms (Eagles and Seahawks green players just disappear). I make sure my opponent is always in white so they show up against the green field. I find it's much, much more important to be able to see the opponent because you know where your own players are going to be.
I don't think it could be ready for a qb trying to see defenders in grey pants and white tops.
Steelers about to punt. The guy who's covering the gunner shifts inside to rush the punter, leaving the gunner (Wheaton/receiver) wide wide open.
Delay of game, Steelers.
Again, the Dolphins squeeze their cover guys inside, leaving Wheaton open.
There is no audible for a quick snap to the protector or the punter to throw the ball?
Appears fly if you are Matt cassel it is ok for the blitzerto smack you in the face while tackling you. I would love to see that go uncalled against on of the top QBs.
Detroit score with help from an ill advised pass which was picked by a cloaking Lion.
Eagles get a first down and promptly fumble an exchange on a running play. Footballing excellence.
Conditions are so bad in the Lions-Eagles game that the Lions eschew the extra point after a touchdown and go for two, which they convert.
I remember the Kurt Warner Rams, I think in 2001, had their kicker injured, so they simply went for it on every 4th down in opposing territory and went for two every time they scored. Of course that was the Greatest Show on Turf in the dome, so the situation is a bit different.
DVOA will not like the Lions'6 first half fumbles (2 lost).
Worse team...2011 Colts without Manning, or 2013 Packers without Rodgers?
Jeff Tripplette blows a replay in the Colts-Bengals game, giving the Bengals a TD on 4th and goal, after it was originally called correctly (down on the 1) on the field.
One of my friends who lives in Cincinnati texted me that even their homerrific radio broadcast team didn't think that was a touchdown.
It was a great example of the type of bizarre and ridiculous, obviously nonsense call which only Jeff Triplette can make.
He has to have pictures of Goodell with a hermaphrodyte Brazilian prostitute, right? How else is he still employed by the NFL?
you got a problem with that, bro?
Only that Jeff Triplette still has a job.
he stinks at reffing
The Colts threatened to make a game of it at one point in the third quarter, but luckily for Triplette, the Bengals pulled away and the extra 7 points didn't matter.
True, and I know there's no measurable, proveable, quantifiable "momentum" but it would not be surprising to see a team make a big play/drive to close out the first half to start the second half charged up while the other team is a bit lethargic.
So it may have had a greater impact than the subsequent scoring indicates.
Many many reasons the world is a better place for my not being a Colts player today, because I would have probably not been able to avoid hitting, taking out his knees with a kick from the side, or threatening Triplette. Call it poor impulse control. As a player I'd have absolutely no recourse to his incomprehensible call--"we're gonna screw you and there's nothing you can do about it." My instinctive response is a paradigm shift along the lines of stepping outside the limited rules of NFL play: I will cripple you and there's nothing you can do to prevent it. Let's call things even after that. Incredibly stupid and my career would be over, but, like I said, poor impulse control.
But as an NFL fan, maybe I can send an anonymous letter to Richie Incognito saying that Triplette's been taking naked pictures of Mrs., Incognito.... Both of them will no longer have an NFL career... problem solved! Two birds with one stone.
Dolphin catches ball, turns upfield, Clark lowers as low as his helmet on the hip.
Receiver ducks, hits Clark's helmet and lo and behold: helmet to helmet hit on a defenseless receiver.
He was so defenseless that he could lower his helmet into Clark.
Jeremy Ross returns a punt for a touchdown, and what should be an insurmountable lead in these conditions, but last year has taught me to never put it past the Lions to blow a 2nd half lead.
They're already half way there.
In any case, that must've been one of the slowest return scores ever. The weather is making this game a little comical.
If you ignore the logos and graphics, you would think you're watching high school kids play with how slow everything is.
McCoy scores on a long TD run after a bogus roughing penalty on Fairley. And another bogus call gives the Eagles another chance and they convert.
I picked the wrong team to watch while I'm trying to cut down on my drinking...
Eagles would be wise to clear off the field for the extra point during this booth review.
Polamalu 3rd INT TD return. That doesn't seem like a lot in almost 11 seasons.
It seems like he usually leaves his feet to dive for interceptions and fumbles.
Jeez, now Gronk is carted off? What's going on this week? (This year for that matter)
Well, the New England Patriots are no longer Super Bowl contenders this year, as Rob Gronkowski went down with a serious knee injury. It'll be a couple of days before the Patriots comment, or put him on the IR, but anyone watching recognizes that he's done for the year.
And I recognize that rule changes have made things a little more difficult for defensive players, but I'm never, ever, going to accept that going at a guy's knee as he's planting is a "clean hit."
Some would argue getting shut out at home by Cleveland even before Gronk went out is the sign that the Patriots aren't a serious Superbowl contender.
Nah, as we can see now, it's obvious that they deliberately had Gronk injured just so that their inevitable comeback could seem more epic. Next week they'll saw Brady's head off with a chainsaw in the locker room and put his zombie corpse out there to throw five second-half touchdown passes.
Peyton Manning, your large forehead is looking... delicious! Brains!!!
The Browns are a lot like last year's Cardinals (Ray Horton, Quentin Groves, and a top-tier CB on a defense that is the better unit of the team, a QB shuffle that included Hoyer, and a fast start that's hit the skids lately,) so if you wanted to look at it that way it had the potential to be a surprise game.
Newsflash: the entire human body is going to get injured as long as you hit hard enough. You just can not time your hit, as a defender so you can avoid injuries. Not getting hurt, really, is on the offensive player.
Big guys are just going to get cut more than smaller guys. And defenders have aim lower nowadays, and yes, that will result in more injuries, I'd guess.
The force required to damage a planted knee is far less than that needed to hurt a player while making a clean tackle in the torso area.
But I didn't really need to say that, did I?
So you're saying that the NFL needs a strike zone from the hip to the shoulders?
That's going to lead to more injured defenders. And way more hits that end up in standoffs, so more defenders come in to hit the player.
I don't know if that's going to help.
No. But targeting a planted knee is far more likely to lead to an injury than a blow to the torso. Your comment about how any part of the body can be injured seemed to dismiss the fact that the knee is far more vulnerable than most parts of the body. That's why it's long been considered dirty play to target the knees when going for a tackle. Without modern surgical techniques, a hit like today's hit from Ward could have ended a player's career.
Come on, this is where we are in the NFL. Ward's hit was hard, but it was legal. In his defense (and he alluded to as much after the game), if he hits the guy at the shoulders, he risks a helmet hit, and a fine/personal foul call. If the NFL wants to prevent guys from getting hit high, they will have to deal with guys getting hit low.
Tie game delivered to the Eagles by virtue of two phantom penalty calls, both the roughing the passer call and the defensive holding penalty.
If you squint really hard, you can see the ghost of Jeff Triplette in the snow.
Immediately followed by their special-teams DVOA sinking in the west.
Does anyone have the address to the Packers front office? I need to send them a thank you bouquet for cutting Jeremy Ross.
My god, can we please stop committing penalties on two point attempts?
Just wait until he starts fumbling while trying to field the ball in good weather.
He fumbles? Well he'll fit in with the Lions just great then!
Umm...wierd time to suddenly start trying an extra point. Is 5 yards that big a deal when you have Megatron? And to use a timeout to clear the field?
And now the Eagles are winning, as McCoy seems to have thoroughly learned how to deal with this snow.
McCoy is just unstoppable now. I wouldn't attempt more than 3 passes the rest of the game if I'm Philly.
5th fumbled snap by Stafford, this time lost. Why do I root for this team again?
Like Arrakis; the Lions were created to train the faithful.
Packers hold on to beat Falcons with Jerrett Bush intercepting the ball with 4 seconds left on the clock. Since there were three guys around the receiving target with the Packers dropping eight into coverage, I'll guess that Bush intercepted while being out of position again just like Atari Bigby before him.
Very disheartening to see the Lion's defensive line just get dominate like this. They look like they don't even realize this is a game, and not practice.
*facepalms* Really Vikings? You finally manage to overcome your D giving up the lead late in the 4th, and you give up a KO return for a TD? GAH!
you were saying?
This game is crazy.
It's like that old arcade game NFL Blitz.
Wow, amazing last few minutes of Vikings-Ravens.
And getting more amazing--four TDs now in the last minute of game clock!
Good grief! It just gets crazier! (Subject to review, of course.)
O.O what the hell? Nice YAC by Patterson on that screen, Vikings back up
This is why the NFC North can't have nice things.
It's called DEFENCE!!!
Meanwhile, the Fins/Steelers game has broken the NFL's stat reporting. It may even exist. Maybe.
What a nutty week.
If not enough fans observe a game, it doesn't come into existence.
That's because of quantum.
Second week in a row the broncos allow long return. Ugh. Titans up 14-7.
Had a small shot on that short kick to set a craziness record. oh well
Steelers pull of a miracle play - only to have Brown step out of bounds, just an inch, at the 13 yard line.
Wait, what the hell? Denver is losing to the Titans?!
Meanwhile, NE scores a touchdown, and Cleveland helps the Inevitable Yet Thrilling Comeback effort by letting them do the onside kick from the 50 instead of the 35. *eyeroll*
And of course New England recovers...
And of course they recover. Seriously, the Patriots are literally incapable of not ripping my heart out of my chest every damn week.
That DPI was horseshit
Kind of a ticky tack P.I. called on the Browns to likely hand the game to New England. Can we have Patriots fans stop complaining about the Carolina game now?
Actually now that I saw the replay that wasn't just ticky tack, it was a terrible call.
No, I have no idea why people think the Pats get all the calls.
No idea at all....
"I have no idea why people think the Pats get all the calls."
Because of confirmation bias.
Remember how the Pats won the Panthers game because they "got all the calls"?
And the Jets game?
Yup, that has to be it.
The tuck rule, the Brady rule, the Brady whining = penalty against the opponent and multiple years of leading the league in penalties called against and enforced during the BB era have nothing to do with it.
Don't quit your day job Dr. Phil.
Mugging of colts during AFC championship game with no calls...
Wow...so many examples I can CONFIRM that it's hard to remember all of them.
No one who mentions the Colts in a comment should ever complain about lame DPI calls or whining about non-calls in the same comment.
Did you watch the entire game or are you just whining about the ending? Boger and crew blew the whistle very, very quickly on a Browns fumble that easy could have gone for 6. I'm inclined to believe incompetence over malice on this one.
I agree. There were many questionable calls and non calls all game long. It was one of the worst officiated games I have seen in a LONG time.
Yes. At least since last week.
Or the week before.
Just give NE the Suber Bowl trophy now, NFL. What a terrible set of calls down the stretch. Hit on the receiver in the end zone? DPI?
Can you imagine if the refs called a DPI on the Pats like that? I think New England would explode.
I seem to remember the Colts winning an AFC championship after Ellis Hobbs got called for PI for "faceguarding", something that hasn't been against the rules for 20 years.
Also, look at the stats, the Pats are actually on the high end for being called for DPI, and low end for being the recipient of it. You're just a colts homer.;
You are right on the faceguarding call.
However, I'll use an old joke to try to explain something: Are you familiar with the quip that just because you are paranoid doesn't mean everybody's NOT out to get you? (i.e. you can be paranoid and they can still be out to get you)
I think you can apply that to a lot of NFL teams and their penalty situations. Saying "we get a lot called against us" doesn't necessarily mean you are innocent victims. You could be guilty of exactly that many fouls, or, more likely, more! And that number you are complaining about is just the ones the refs saw. Teams and players get reputations and if a ref thinks he saw some contact just before an incompletion and is pretty sure it was PI, he'll probably flag the guy with the rep because that's human nature.
But in reality, if you watch line play you will probably see holding on every single down. It is often mystifying, or at least confusing, when they do make calls because your mind flashes back to a half dozen other plays that should have qualified but were not called. If I watch a game and don't utter "what, are you frikkin' kidding me?" at least twice, I'm either not paying attention or really distracted.
No shit Bobman. I understand confirmation bias.
Brady doesn't get any more calls than anyone else. It's really fucking irritating hearing this shit every time the patriots are the beneficiary of a questionable call, when they get screwed on just as many (if not more) calls.
Its just a tired story.
And there it is. Yes, folks, the Patriots score more points in the last 2:37 of the game, with no timeouts and an onside kick recovery AND Gronkowski in the locker room watching, than they did in the entire rest of the game put together. I'm really getting depressed by the fact that, not so much that a good football team wins a lot of games, but that time and again they specialize in getting the kind of wins that make it seem like God cheats at football (see also: 2011 Tebow Broncos). (Mind you, being a Dolphins fan makes the last twelve years of the Patriots a general exercise in depression anyway.)
What annoys me is that the ref called that a penalty when A) it was incidental contact at most, and B) that decides the game.
You expected anything different? Brady could pull the Billy Cole play and the official would call a penalty on the defense for unsportsmanlike conduct for bleeding on the field.
The defender pulled on the receiver's shoulder pads. It gets called 90% of the time.
It needs to get called because its a foul. Letting them commit penalties just because its the end of the game is ridiculous.
Wow. Just wow. If you think that play gets called DPI 90% of the time, there is no reason to debate with you.
From the ESPN Pats blog: If you’re going to beat them, you have to knock them out, which they proved again Sunday -- with a little help from a questionable 29-yard pass-interference penalty on the winning drive.
From the Boston Globe: The Patriots pulled out yet another come-from-behind win Sunday against the Browns, and all it took was an onside kick, a questionable defensive pass interference call, and a Danny Amendola touchdown — the Patriots’ second in 59 seconds — to get it done.
Even the "Homer" media know it's a questionable call. Not you, though.
And even "questionable" is homerific. It was a terrible call.
The defender put his hands on Boyce's shoulder pads and pulled. Its pretty friggen clear.
Watch the tape.
The fact that it comes significantly early than the ball gets there doesn't make it not a penalty.
As a fellow fan of a team in their division, once the Dolphins lose in the playoffs, you should be rooting for the Pats to win it all. 1. They don't get a Brady replacement in one of the most quarterback rich drafts in the last ten years. 2. You get to enjoy Brady screaming at his teammates as they have the inevitable post-championship fall apart year. 3. It looks like your team will have the best quarterback in the division once Brady's done. 4. Unless the Pats draft someone soon, they will have the worst quarterback situation in the division; bad as Manuel and Geno have looked this year, they will improve. Mallett is going to be a trainwreck.
By the way, I'd like to thank your team for defeating my least favorite team, the Steelers. I'd much rather have the Jets miss out on a wild card blowout loss than see the Steelers quarterback in the playoffs again, not that I thought there was much chance of the Jets making it this year.
Re 1: You still underestimate the power of the Belichick.
Belichick is 61. How long do you think he will continue to be a great coach? Most coaches fall off a cliff in their early 60s, Coughlin excepted. I would not assume he stays in New England when Brady is finished, either.
"I find your lack of faith disturbing" - Darth Hoodie
You knucklehead... are you forgetting about the 6th round? If they need a replacement for #12 they'll just pick one up then. Maybe two, what the hell; it's nice to have a spare around, no?
Yeah, because quarterbacks taken in the 6th round work out all the time. I'm not saying the Pats are done right now, just that their championship window is in the process of closing within a couple of years. Also, that Dolphins fans should take heart, because they might have the team in the division in the best position of taking advantage when the Pats fall apart.
Antonion Brown and the Steelers could've had a game-winning play for the ages on a lateral fest, but he steps out of bounds by the barest of margins after he appeared to be past the defense… Too bad, that would've been absolutely amazing.
Looked to me like Big Ben shoveled the ball forward had Brown stayed inbounds and the play was reviewed.
yeesh. I loathe this pats team. Absolutely hate it. Bradys attitude makes me sick; he's 30-something yet still seems like a brat.
That was a beautiful stretch catch and tumble for a TD by Decker.
Well, almost TD anyway.
I feel bad for any team that has to rely on Billy Cundiff...
Refs - 1, Fans - 0
Cundiff 59 yards for the win comes up 2 yards short. Sickening.
Isn't 'average points' a better stat than '%' for red zone statistics?
Yes! I've always thought 'average points' was the way to go there.
I notice that in addition to having another huge receiving day - as we would all expect - Josh Gordon even managed to lead the Browns in rushing.
Yet another similarity to last year's Cards mentioned above--a top-tier WR who would be able to do more still with better QB and OL play.
There was no doubt what the eventual outcome would be after the "intentional grounding" call on Campbell. First Pats game I've watched all season, and it was a great reminder of why I stopped watching them.
Multiple reports that Gronkowski's ACL is torn. Obviously, if accurate, that ends his season. Adrian Peterson has a "mid-foot" sprain, which probably means Lisfranc. Two more massive injuries in a brutal season.
Two Colts this season had mid-foot sprains of their plantar fascia. One was out 4-5 weeks and played the past two. The other is expected back for the playoffs....
Whereas lisfranc is a season-ender in my experience. Then again, at this point in the year... 4-5 weeks = end of season. At least it might not need surgery or extensive rehab.
Questionable-call aided melodramatics aside, the Patriots are scarcely better than mediocre. Barely beating the Browns and Texans in two consecutive weeks is terrible, and now they've lost Gronkowski. It will be interesting to see if they can hold off the Bengals for a bye. Whoever gets the sixth seed should probably be hoping they get to play New England. It's really too bad that the conferences are so unbalanced. If someone can upset the Broncos the AFC's representative in the the Super Bowl will not be especially worthy to say the least.
The Patriots are pretty tough to beat in snow games, which would make them hard to beat in this years Super Bowl if they get there. They've also beaten the Broncos and Saints, and lost to the Bengals in a close one. Not sure if the NFC is that much better than the AFC at this point, just that the AFC South is so bad. I might add that the Seahawks needed overtime to beat the Texans.
We have no idea if it will snow in the Super Bowl.
I would argue that the top four NFC teams are all better than whoever's second best in the AFC. The AFC as whole probably one has four teams that are genuinely above average, at least at this stage in the season. Both the Colts and whoever gets the sixth seed are not very good. The Cardinals, Packers, and one of Cowboys/Eagles are all more deserving of a playoff spot.
Considering that right now one of those top 4 teams in the NFC is the Saints, and they lost to both New England and the Jets, I don't agree with that. The Colts are not a great team, but they still beat Seattle and San Francisco. I realize the 6th seed in the AFC probably won't be a very good team, but the no one in the NFC East is that much better than the Jets, much less the Dolphins or the Ravens.
I have to disagree. The Cowboys and Eagles are both considerably better than any of those three teams.
Are you kidding me? The Jets are a bad, bad team. It doesn't make sense to evaluate teams on single results. The Jets-Saints game was an anomaly. It was certainly one of the season's biggest upsets. The Jets have been terrible overall. Their win-loss record does not reflect their actual quality. The Dolphins and Ravens are only a step above the Jets. These are all teams that are lucky to even be close to .500.
The Colts were good but have completely collapsed. Even early in the season they were probably playing over their heads, but now they aren't even close to good.
I don't think the point was that the Jets are a good team.
That the Saints lost to a team of the Jets' caliber was the point. They also didn't look good at all last week.
That's not to say that there are many legitimate contenders in the AFC. I think Gronk's injury is the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots. As things stand, they've lost two of their top defenders and their best non-QB weapon on offense to season-ending injury. That they have 10 wins is absurd.
The Colts also look to be in disarray, but I wouldn't dismiss the Bengals that quickly, and the Ravens are capable of a run (as we saw last season).
It would be funny if the Pats got the #1 seed. They have the tiebreaker over Denver after all.
At this point it's all house money. No team could possibly win a Super Bowl after everything that's happened since January. The run defense alone disqualifies the Pats from serious consideration as a contender.
Nice counter-jinx attempt, bucko.
Swear to god the biggest thing keeping the Broncos down is Fox being conservative. A punt on 4th and 3 at the 40 is bad under any circumstance, with Manning under center its inexcusable.
And the Titans, meanwhile, take the opposite approach and are up 21-10. Gutless cowardice reaping its own rewards.
My thoughts exactly! What do you get out of that, maybe 25-30 yards? Jeesh.
Titans now with a double-digit lead against the Broncos to set up the inevitable Manning 2nd half comeback heroics.
Welker seems kind of washed up.
Belichick? Is that you??
The things is, in Denver he only has to be an experienced 3rd-4th receiver. He seems to fill that role pretty well.
I don't think that he is paid that way and he drops too many for that role. I mean he is fine because they have other underpaid players but it is a wasteful use of resources.
At this point, I'd take Edelman straight up over him, without even considering the contracts. The fact that hes WAY cheaper for NE just cinches it.
In my eyes, Edelman is a good player, but as a Broncos fan, I have to say that Welker has a been a great addition to their offense and calling him washed up seems, well, crazy.
Prater makes history: 64 yarder.
Anyone know how much the low temperature effect cancels out the thin air effect on the 64 yard FG?
Broncos went for 2 4th downs on their first drive, and got them both, but Fox seems to be back to normal more or less now.
The air at 15 deg in Denver (5280 ft) is same density as the air at Arrowhead (889 ft) at 98 deg or the density at sea level at 116 deg. Combined with the added stiffness of the ball in the cold (mostly mitigated by ball heaters but not completely) this was pretty comparable to a kick at a mid altitude stadium (KC or Chicago) in hot weather. Add in the effects of humidity (water vapor is much less dense than air) and this may have been a slightly harder kicking environment than a typical early season game in a Hot, Humid location.
So you're saying that it really shouldn't be an asteriks on Praters record? Thats interesting - I'd love to see some further analysis.
I found a calculator that includes humidity here http://www.baranidesign.com/air-density/air-density.htm
This says the conditions in Denver yesterday (15F/-9.5C, 70% humidity) considering air density only (ignoring ball temp) were equivalent to sea level at 102F/39C, 100% hum or to KC at 91F/33C, 70% hum.
So a really hot and muggy game at sealevel (not unheard of) or a pretty typical September game at Arrowhead. And remember, this doesn't consider ball temp. This is not a dismiss-able kick just because it was in Denver.
Why are defensive backs so allergic to touchbacks?
"In great attempts, it's glorious even to fail."
If you're the type that sits on a knee instead of taking a shot at making a game changing play - then you're not going to be an NFL defensive back. DBs have to be opportunists. Some learn along the way to do the smart thing - same as batting down a 4th down bomb instead of intercepting it.
And making a pick in the end zone usually means you've already made a big play, so it's kind of an adrenaline rush.
Fox is certainly trying his best to Kubiak his team. After the first drive with success on two fourth downs, he's since punted away on two fourth-and-shorts in the middle of the field, not gone for two when it would have put them up 14, and now kicked a field goal from the 1. I just don't understand why he'd be so adamant about not trying to win the game when he has the best offense in all of football and it's the other aspects of the team that are lacking. Time and again he handcuffs that offense by refusing to let them actually play.
I don't know why you'd expect anything else.
He's always been like this.
I have been infected with undying optimism since Ron Rivera saw the light.
I don't know how to handle it, but that call on interfering with a fair catch is unjust. The covering player is trying to run well to the side, but at the last moment the receiver realized he had misjudged the ball and ran right into the covering player. There was no way to avoid the contact, and you cannot permit intentionally drawing fair catch interference to be an effective strategy.
I can't agree with this. When the returner signals a fair catch the defense has no reason to get anywhere near him. It was a dumb play from a unit that's normally very good.
When the returner signals a fair catch the defense has no reason to get anywhere near him.
Really? I would think being a couple of yards away would help you spot where the ball goes. Regardless, it's a very long standing rule and the Seattle gunner hit James just after he caught the ball. That's going to get called every time.
Do you think LMJ deliberately swerved late to draw the foul with the risk of the muff that would entail? Of course not, it was a legitimate call.
Let's not mention that non call on the DPI on Crabtree.
Do I think it was intentional? No way. He misjudged and had to move. But now they've established that if the receiver makes a sudden last minute move and runs into a covering player then it's a foul on the covering team. That is absolutely open for exploitation.
It was a bad call because the covering player was doing exactly what he was supposed to be doing, running down field to cover the punt and giving the receiver a wide berth once he called fair catch. He could take no practical action to avoid the contact. This should fall into the same category as calling fair catch too late.
All I can say is that this happens, I can understand that sometimes it's tough on the coverage man but the game has to allow the returned to catch the ball on a fair catch without getting hit.
The niners got burnt on the same deal a few weeks ago, c'est la vie.
Absolute first thing I thought when I saw that was that if I were a coach, I'd put in an "exploit this loophole" play Monday morning. Your receiver has to make a good play on the ball, hopefully catch it, but if not, it's a de facto 15 yard return. (and may soften their coverage next time)
I didn't see the play in question; I just disagree that there's no reason to near a returner who's attempting a fair catch.
Well give it a look, you're not going to recover many muffs by hitting the returner in the teeth an instant after he catches the ball on a fair catch.
Were I running the Seahawks, I'd have permitted an uncontested score on the play immediately following Kaepernick's 1st down run. Does the data back me or Carroll?
Don't know, but I do know that nothing good ever comes of throwing the ball to Jermaine Kearse.
I was thinking the same thing. Let them walk in and have 90 seconds to try something with no TOs instead of the 28 seconds they got.
Big difference was the FG-needed versus TD-needed factor. I suspect they made the right call--getting 40 yards and a FG in 30 seconds is probably more likely than 80 and a TD in 90.
First and goal, at that point letting them just take it in and getting the ball back with about 1:40 on the clock would have given them a fighting chance. They had no timeouts and a defensive stop didn't give them any chance of mounting a comeback.
Don't you have to trick the offense to make that work. If it's optimal to let them score a TD, they can just kneel and take 40 seconds off the clock.
I don't know if the Seahawks should've let the 49ers score. However, don't forget that the 49ers would've attempted a two-point conversion to go up a full touchdown, so there would be about a 50% chance that the Seahawks would at best be able to tie the game.
It's a matter of either 25 seconds or so to win the game on a field goal versus 1:40 to score a touchdown to either win the game or get to overtime.
Harbaugh's pretty conservative, isn't he? And his D was playing well and is very stout. I am not sure he'd have done that.
I'd hope that every coach in the league knows that with only a bit over a minute left, a five point lead and a six point lead are about the same since two field goals are exceedingly unlikely while a seven point lead is a huge improvement.
I think that as much as many coaches make bad decisions in games regarding when to go for two, I think this one is very much a no brainer.
© Football Outsiders, Inc. // Site powered by Stein-Wein // Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties