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22 Dec 2012
Here's a thread where you can talk about Week 16's games and toast to the end of our server problems.
Posted by: Rivers McCown on 22 Dec 2012
165 replies , Last at
25 Dec 2012, 1:42am by
Good to have you back. I bet Calvin Johnson is just PO'd right about now ...
111 yards to Rice.
1845 through three quarters of game 15. Now officially on pace for 2000 yards.
Obligatory comment mentioning that the Lions should have gone for it on fourth and goal at the two point conversion line.
I don't know why Gruden was saying the post wasn't there on the interception. Megatron was wide open, but Stafford threw behind him right at the trailing Samuel. If he leads Johnson properly that's at least a 25 yard gain.
“Treat a man as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be, and he will become what he should be.”
I read that the same way. It was a bad throw, but it didn't look like a bad read to me.
You saw what I saw.
Is there any precedent for a team/QB like the Lions and Stafford going from bad to pretty good and right back to bad again-- though the bad is nearly all 4th Quarter bad-- ever actually climbing the mountaintop?? To me-- and admittedly I'm watching them through Green and Gold tinted glasses-- this team is hopeless. But for two months last year, they simply find a new way to lose--over and over again.
People expected way too much out of Stafford because he is a good fantasy player who puts up big aggregate stats.
"Is there any precedent for a team/QB like the Lions and Stafford going from bad to pretty good and right back to bad again"
Happens all the time, actually. In the FO Almanac the Lions chapter predicted that Stafford would regress, because his YPA improvement from 2010 (in an admittedly small sample size) to 2011 was considered unsustainable. Lions fans that want to be optimistic will point out Drew Bledsoe and the Patriots breaking through to make the playoffs in 1994, then Bledsoe regressing badly in '95 and Patriots seemingly returning to the ranks of the losers, before rebounding in '96.
Stafford's ceiling will probably that of Bledsoe...attempting a lot of passes and racking up a lot of yards, but never really able to carry the team by himself, and being considered good but not great because of it.
"this team is hopeless."
If this coaching staff stays, I will 100% agree with that assessment, but with a new, more competent coaching staff, they would have some decent parts to work with.
I thought that the niners broke the plexiglass ceiling.
Anyhow, this year's Lions offense was better than last years according to DVOA regardless of Stafford's YPA dropping from 7.6 to 6.9. It's the defensive DVOA that's worse.
Congratulations to Megatron!
So why isn't anybody talking about Megatron for MVP? It all comes down to the W-L it seems. He's having the best season of any WR in NFL history, and because the Lions are awful, he cannot be "most valuable."
I don't know advanced stats, but it looks like a pretty empty 'great' season to me. Five touchdowns all year?
Yeah, not a lot of touchdowns, and a LOT of garbage time yards.
Where are all these "garbage time yards"? Calvin gained all of 237 yards when the team was down by 14 pts or more in the 4th, and not all of that can even be considered so-called "garbage time", unless you play fast and loose with what you call garbage time.
As a Packers fan, I'll be happy to trade CJ for James Jones straight up any day. I don't think the Pack could fit him under the cap, but I would love to see what CJ would do with an elite QB.
That's ridiculous. He's been dominant all year and certainly in this game. I don't watch the Lions enough to have an idea why he doesn't have more touchdowns, but it shouldn't detract from what he's done.
He was absolutely dominant today.
Yes, he was dominant, and as I said, I don't know advanced stats, but the criterion was 'best season ever,' not 'dominant.' One of the few things I know is that big yardage numbers are not necessarily worth a hell of a lot.
Oh, that was the misunderstanding. You put the word great in quotes, so I thought you were claiming that it wasn't a great season. This in my opinion most certainly qualifies as a great season. It could be argued if it's the best ever, but he certainly has been dominant and he certainly is a huge parts of the Lions offense.
2 turnovers, 0 points. Just sayin'.
You know, it's funny. I'm not a Lions fan or a Calvin Johnson fan, but I saw the game that he played today and I can't see how anybody couldn't have seen it as absolutely dominant even if that fumble was huge in the game, his catches all day for big yardage and lots of first down outweighed it by a long shot.
This loss wasn't on Calvin Johnson.
And I'll be the first to argue that pure yardage isn't the sole definition of a quality season, but it's still impressive when he's generally dominant by any measure and he also happens to break the record for most receiving yards.
I have to give him kudos when they're due and he's earned them.
I don't think yardage is the sole definition of a quality season. And when I made my first comment, I was doing so in my capacity as a fan, not with the seriousness level of somebody submitting a paper to an academic journal. But I think this season has to rank very highly. Is one of Moss's seasons better, when he had many more TDs? Perhaps.
But breaking the 16-game yardage record in his 15th game is a feat that ought to be applauded, not derided.
So...225 yards receiving doesn't interest you?
(And the box score says only 1 turnover.)
Depends. Calvin doesn't play defense, so I'm not going to hold that against him. But is he finishing plays like Julio Jones? Hard to say, doesn't look like it to me. But he's not protecting his QB like Brandon Marshall protects Cutler. Cutler goes to throw the pick, Marshall might just turn into a defender and preserve the possession with an OPI. DVOA thinks that play is a big mistake, head coaches will universally disagree.
The yards are impressive, but (clearly) they don't win games. Megatron has all the measurables in the world, and while we often mock intangible qualities that elude measure, I think we've all had experiences which lead us to appreciate value which isn't readily apparent.
Well, if you're going to make a claim that some other receivers are better at other skills (Brandon Marshall playing defense against potential interceptions) or Julio Jones at finishing, I can go ahead and give you benefit of the doubt. I mean, why not? Because Julio being a little bit better at finishing and Marshall being better at preventing interceptions don't really change how he's played because I never claimed that he's better than every other receiver at every skill that a receiver can have.
Also, as far as "finishing" is concerned, I'm not sure that that means, but I'd take it to mean that it would be the ability to make somebody miss and continue the run after the catch because that's the skill that I'd imagine makes a receiver better able to score a touchdown. Or maybe it means winning jump balls because that would also be helpful. Or getting behind the defense. I'm not sure, but to my eye Calvin Johnson looks very good at all three of these things, but maybe Julio Jones is better. I really can't say.
The turnover was a case of most credit to Abraham (well downfield, btw) and not much blame to Johnson. It was a rip-out, and not because Johnson was holding the ball insecurely/with bad technique. It was bang-bang, before Johnson could tuck it completely away.
I guess if TDs are your metric, Calvin Johnson isn't as good as Cecil Shorts or Santana Moss.
Personally, I think the only metrics that matter for WRs are completions, yardage, YAC, and completion percentage.
A lot of teams switch to the running game when they get close to the end zone. Last season, BenJarvnus Green-Ellis had more TDs than Wes Welker. This did not mean that he was more important to the Pats' offense.
Regarding TD's, Johnson was tackled 5 times this year at the one yard line. That sounds like a non-repeatable stat.
I'd include 1st downs, too. Calvin leads the league with 88 1st downs on 117 catches.
The Lions do have 9 more rushing TDs this year than last. Some of those short-yardage TDs that went to Calvin last year probably went to Leshoure this year. But it also doesn't help that Stafford has been off this year, either.
Um, what on earth is Logan thinking? Taking a knee on the 4 yard line on the free kick?
Interested to hear how FO discounts this game as an outlier for the Falcons as well. At some point people have to acknowledge this is a pretty darn good football team that knows how to win games, at home AND on the road.
No one is discounting the ATL games. No one is saying they aren't a "pretty darn good football team". What they are saying is that they might not be as good as their record shows. Which should be pretty uncontroversial.
ATL will likely move up a bit this week and be considered a team that is in the top teams in the league. A team with a couple of home playoff games that is pretty likely (all things considered) to win the Super Bowl. What more do you want?
If you want someone to say they are great and clearly the best team because they beat a pretty mediocre DET teams, well that is silly.
DVOA certainly might be a bit low on the Falcons, but it is not as though they are some powerhouse. They scare no one.
I hope someone at Fantasy Outsiders takes a look at the Lions decision to kick the field goal in the 4th quarter. 4th and goal from the 2 and down 8 points to the Falcons with around 10 minutes to go. Seems like kicking the field goal is a poor decision, but I'm curious to see how kicking the field goal vs going for it changed the game in terms of expected points and win percentage.
DET has been horrible at these decisions all year. Schwartz is supposed to be a modern intelligent stats friendly guy, but frankly there has been extremely little evidence of that in his time with DET. I doubt he gets another sniff at a head coaching job.
FO's secret forumla will probably say that the Lions had a higher success % per play, and therefore a higher DVOA. Also, they will conider the falcons +3 turnover diff as lucky.
I don't think they take win probability into account as much as EPA and success rate.
I like the Advanced NFL Stats formulas better because of the above, The falcons rate much higher there than here.
DVOA will consider the fact that the Falcons forced more fumbles and interceptions to be a positive thing, but the fact that the Falcons recovered both fumbles means that it will be discounted slightly because of fumble recovery luck.
But, having watched the game, I'll be surprised if the Falcons aren't on top in VOA rating and probably DVOA rating. Of course, DVOA tends to favor the weaker team because it's an opponent adjusted metric.
As for your last comment, it makes it look like you like their stats better because it rates the Falcons better. Surely that's not the only reason. Perhaps you prefer something about their methodology?
Falcons are 8th in GWP and 9th in DVOA, so there isn´t a lot of difference. They look a little better in EPA and EPA/P, but thats neither opponent-adjusted nor as predictive as GWP and DVOA.
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Keisel does his bow and arrow celebration, going to one knee after a sack on 3rd and long. 15 yard penalty, 1st down Bengals. I noticed Keisel did that before and didn't get flagged, but its a clear violation. I don't know why anyone told him to stop, or if he thought he could get away with it.
Christian Ponder takes over and goes 3/3 for 62 yards leading the Vikings to take the lead 7-3 against the Texans. With home field advantage on the line you'd think there'd be a little more effort shown by Houston.
4:43 left in 1st quarter and the third 4th down play in the game results in the third refusal to punt.
But Eagles were 2/2 while Redskins fail to convert.
JAX up 10-0? (sigh)
Texans are moving the ball well, get into field goal range, Foster gets a good run on 2nd down, and coughs the ball up giving it to the Vikings.
Has the loss of Winston and Breisel, and Tate being out for such a long time contributed to Foster's down year? Or did the Texans just overpay? By a lot.
Down year? He's 1313 yards on 325 attempts in 14 games. I know it's only 4.0 YPA, but it's on league leading attempts. He even has 14 TDs if thats your thing.
If 325/1313 in 14 games is a down year for your runningback, I think it's fine to sign him to max-contract.
Hate seeing JAX punt with 4th and 1 at midfield. Sure, you're winning now, but do you really think the Jags can keep the lead up by playing safe? See how well that worked out for SF.
Redskins score TD on a play where the replay seems to indicate that the receiver's knee was down when the ball was a wee bit short. But the camera angle is bad, so refs allow TD to stand.
Why doesn't the NFL have cameras set up permanently to look directly at the goal line from the side? Surely they can afford that. Why leave replay up to the vagaries of wherever the networks decide their cameras should be?
Whitney Mercilus earns what will probably be the lightest, yet legit, "Helmet-to-helmet" hit in NFL. The side of his helmet brushes the facemask of Ponder and draws a flag on a play which was a converted 3rd & 10 anyway putting the Vikings in the red zone. Vikings are dominating the Texans when they're on defense, and their offense is converting the big 3rd downs Houston isn't.
A first down by the Bengals is reviewed and reversed, on third and one the Steelers are offside and give them the first anyway. Their season in a nutshell.
Not really defenses fault today. Ben responsible for 10 Cincy points. I think he throws a very high number of pick sixes
Houston gets into Vikings territory after they recover a Ponder fumble. They fail to convert a 3rd down which leaves them at the Vikings 45, but facing 4th and 4. Kubiak punts.
Houston had done little up to this point in the game. They had shown spotty ability to actually stop the Vikings. Why not go for it in that spot? That the punt fair-caught at the 9 was fortunate. The decision to punt rather than go for it facing 4th and 4 when they've not had much luck moving the ball, or stopping the opponent seems to be a really bad decision to me.
Marvin Lewis doesn't like a 50-yard FG at Heinz field, so he elects to go for it on.... 4th-and-22!! I don't know - that might be going overboard.
(AJ Green catches it in double coverage, but his second foot is barely on the line - incomplete).
Brady ducks his head into Mincey during a sack, gets the 15 yard penalty. So if I'm QB at this point and its 3rd and long, why not just let a guy come off the edge, maybe slow him down a little bit, and just have the QB intentionally dive his head into part of the body of the pass rusher? Probably not a good long term decision with a franchise QB, but why not just put a crappy QB in instead and just rack up 15 yard personal foul calls?
Cinci just went for it on 4th and 22 at midfield up 3 with 9 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Explain.
1. A.J. Green
2a. No Ike Taylor
2b. Keenan Lewis gimpy
2c. Curtis Brown gimpy
2d. Josh Victorian in coverage
3. Commentators are talking about a supposedly PI-happy Back Judge. IDK.
Did it work?
No. Green was out of bounds by a heel.
Houston gets 1st and Goal from the 1. Vikings hold firm and even get a 14 yard sack on 3rd down forcing the Texans to settle for a FG and remain down by 2 scores.
On that swing pass, I was thinking, "Why is it taking so long for the teleprompter to show the flag?"
I guess I was giving too much credit to the officials.
Redskins win on intentional grounding penalty. The penalty was well-deserved.
As someone who has defended the Colts defense around here as just run of the mill bad, not totally atrocious, I need to retract that. Giving up 500 yards to the Chiefs does officially make you the worst defense in the league.
Flacco gets to the line, audibles to "Larry". Ravens run an option to the left. Let me guess, if he said "Roger" they'd run it to the right? Are audibles really that simple, or is that just the Ravens? I'm guessing its the Ravens.
Moe = middle?
At the 5 yard line, he audibled to "Joe" and it was a Jump ball to Torrey Smith (a fade, but close enough).
Looks like fumble look could determine Saints-Cowboys game. Loose ball recovered at Dallas 2. By Saints?
Edit: oh, this is stupid Possession is not reviewable?
Torrey Smith's hanging on the goalpost is supposed to be a flag, right? I'm pretty sure you're allowed to fake jam but not hang on.
Is that a post-Vai Sikahema rule? He used to go off on them.
I hate to say it but I think Ed Reed is washed up.
Baffling sequence of plays in Baltimore. Mike Pereira thought Jones made a second act after catching the ball at the 1 and stretched into the endzone, but the ref disagreed. Then the Ravens run 2x with Rice to go nowhere at the 5 yard line. I hope Jim Caldwell doesn't think that just by calling running plays to Ray Rice he won't get fired, because to run on 3rd and goal on 6 yard line is just stupid.
I'm really confused by that call. That looked like a clear touchdown to me, and to reverse it based on "conclusive evidence" just seems ridiculous.
On a different note from the same game, the Giants still look awful. Finally, some consistency! And the Ravens offense is alive for the first time since...uh...since...
Watching the highlights of the early games, I see that RG3 threw another one of those top-spin lobs to Santana Moss for a TD.
Yeah, that was a thing of beauty, wasn't it?
Ummm, anyone else confused watching the BAL/NYG game? Of course the Giants would have had an advantage had the play been called a fumble, it would have been 1st and 10 instead of 4th down. Refs are mystifying both ways.
Who is the ref for this game? The calls are weirder than I've seen since the replacement refs.
Corey Webster has been beat like a rented mule in this game. didn't he used to be good?
Where have these Ravens been for the last month?
Somewhere the Giants weren't.
Buried under Cam Cameron and an offense designed around Anquan Boldin isolation routes, with the occasional hopeless Torrey Smith bomb.
This Ravens' drive is remarkable for how many flags have been thrown, on both the offense and defense. We must be up to six or seven by now.
Confusion again with the refs in Baltimore. They called a chop block on Oher when he went low on a pass rusher who was then engaged with the LG. But aren't two consecutive OL allowed to go high/low? I thought it was if you brought in a RB or WR and went high/low then it would be a chop block. But two OL next to each other should be OK.
You are correct, sir. Glad someone else saw that. My wife's analysis was "I have no damn clue, you're really asking me about this?"
Two lineman lined up next to each other may go high low on running plays only, never on passing or kicking plays. It was the correct call.
Aha, thanks for the clarification!
Mike Tanier is currently appearing on the phone on Channel 4's NFL coverage in the UK. We have by far the best coverage over here.
I hate to agree with Collinsworth, but that was a clean hit on Vernon Davis that was flagged as helmet-to-helmet. The officials need to learn that a hit to the chest can cause a head to whiplash.
I agree with you. But I've seen that called several times this year. Maybe it should be a Point of Emphasis next year - not calling a penalty when it's a legit hard hit even when it looks bad - but I'm not counting on it.
"Points of Emphasis" never help. They just cause overreactions and quick trigger fingers.
I don't think they said helmet to helmet, For me, he left his feet.
DBs aren't allowed to leave their feet to lunge at receivers?
I agree, it was a clean hit. But I needed to look at it a couple times in slo mo to be sure. Tough for the refs in realtime, especially when a guy's on the ground obviously concussed after the hit. Didn't two officials throw flags? I think that hit would be (wrongly) flagged 7-8 times out of 10.
The NFL (and NHL) has just got itself all mixed up about hitting, violence, concussions, the whole shebang. It won't be too many years until hitting is outlawed, which won't be the end of the world, but seems kind of silly in a world where MMA and Boxing are still things.
Seahawks escape bad penalty call by returning blocked FG for TD. Akers looks like he's fallen off a cliff in kicking effectiveness.
49ers taking as many delay penalties this week as fumbled snaps last week. They might be better off if they fumbled snaps instead.
Terrific read by Willis on screen to Turbin. Would've been a loss even if the throw had been on target.
I liked Collinsworth's comparison of Wilson to Tarkington. That last scramble was very like Tarkington.
FWIW, the iOS spell check recommends Tarkington after the first four letters.
The 49ers are legitimately behind. That doesn't mean they're not being screwed by the refs.
Manningham's arm was grabbed on the niners' opening play.
Smith was held outside the pads and Whitner had his jersey stretched out on Lynch's first run (the sort of holds you actually see get called), I think RJF was tripped too but I haven't seen it enough.
The hit on Davis was correct if you think that trailing your foot doesn't prevent a penalty for leaving you feet to hit a defensive receiver.
There was no whistle on the Culliver PF, what the fuck is he supposed to do?
The niners run a screen pass, Clemons holds Gore (again you see the jersey pulled away from his pads) and it leads to an illegal man downfield, there should have been at least offsetting penalties.
Seems like if you'r wearing an ulgy ass Seahawks uniform you can hold as much as you like, as I type they hold Smith again, even Collingsworth called it but no fucking flag. Then the TD pass should be a delay of game. Bullshit.
The niners haven't played well, theyd be behind by at least ten but they've been royally screwed by really shit officials. I don't like getting beaten but at least give a level playing field.
(And if you're going to reply calling me a niners homer then please point out where I was wrong with the specific calls)
Lol. I love thinking about some basement-dwelling 49ers fan, too angry to even type properly, taking down notes after each play so that he can whine about them all week on this website. Enjoy your beatdown.
Quality post from a quality person.
Calling someone the old MSSM vs. blogger insult of "basement-dweller" because they're upset over calls going against them is classless. Says a lot about you as a person. Enjoy your night. Hope your team chokes the lead away.
Hits a little too close to home, eh?
Not taking notes, unlike you I have this thing called a brain that allows me to remember things.
Funny thing about brains, they have biases that cause us to miss things. In your case, missed calls in the 49ers favor.
And you can point them out or are you just full of it?
A couple false starts, more holding than I care to count, a facemask, and obviously the personal foul on Chancellor.
Also at least 1 offsides.
Oh and a push off by a receiver.
When? On who? You're making stuff up.
Actually, I don't know why I bother, you're clearly a troll.
Too late, you already bothered!
lol in real life
Have you paid attention to possible bad calls in favor of the 49ers? I'm guessing no. If there are equally bad calls on both sides, then there is no bias, just bad officiating. I imagine Seattle fans could point to similar missed calls, so even if all the calls you mention are correct, that isn't enough to prove bias.
It seems that pretty much everyone that isn't a 49er fan and some 49er fans themselves have decried the flag on Chancellor's hit.
Those are still flags that get called all the time so I consider the marginal at this point. The only penalties I complain about are the absolutely blatant ones. I didn't watch the 1st quarter so cannot comment on that but they didn't seem to screw up any blatant calls in the 2nd quarter.
Culliver left his feet on his PF. It was the same as the call against Chancellor.
Ok, I don't know the names of SF's O-line and the game has been over for a bit at this point, so I apologize in advance that this isn't as specific as your list but...
1. SF's LT (pretty sure it was LT) flat out underhooked a guy on SEA pass rush to no flag.
2. Kaep's no call delay of game was much worse then Wilson's.
3. No, I don't think that was a good call against Chancellor.
4. Really blatant false start from SF's center wasn't called.
5. I think SF was offsides at least twice for every time they got flagged for it.
I'm not going to say Seattle didn't get away with some stuff, but so did SF, so let's not pretend otherwise. This is a 35-15 game even giving your argument the benefit of the doubt.
As a Packer fan I'm happy the 49ers are losing but I can't help shake the sense that the Seahawks look a lot like that 2010 Packer team. A team that by stats was one of the best in the league but by record were just skating by. If the Giants miss the playoffs (they just matchup well vs the Pack) I think the scariest team the Packers could play is Seattle at this point. The almost wild card teams don't scare me at all, the Falcons don't scare me much at all. The 49ers and Seahawks are both scary matchups.
Yep, they do. Of course, the 2012 Packers also look a lot like the 2010 Packers, at least in terms of injuries and the possible running game revival at the end of the season. DVOA says that the NFC was rather weak that year, and in fact the strongest opponent for the Packers in the playoffs was their first one, the Eagles; indeed, they were a Bishop shoestring tackle from probably losing that game. This year, the NFC is far stronger.
True. This is a Packer team that has been at 75% all year long and still been a top 6 team so they definitely have another gear if they can all get healthy at the same time. They are still going to be soft on the OLine and at LB since those guys are out for the year but they can certainly take their game up a notch and Rodgers is still as good as any other player in the NFL.
Why no DPI on the attempted catch by Moss?
Game over man!
Impressive win by Seattle.
Smith held again (outside the pads again)
Well, the NFL pretty clearly has a hard on for Seattle. Niners played very poorly, but holy shit the refs. Seattle was holding on literally every single play. And I guess DPI doesn’t exist anymore.
Are you alleging that the NFL (who specifically are you talking about, anyway?) fixed this game for the Seahawks?
49ers really missed Justin Smith and Vernon Davis. Kaepernick was overwhelmed, Harbaugh said at halftime that they had to simplify the play calling for him. He also threw too late on a deep ball where Moss was wide open behind 3 Seahawks in the end zone.
No question the 49ers are far better than this, but the Seahawks still looked very impressive.
Yep. Fatigue was a factor, injuries were a factor. But the biggest factor was the Seahawks. They're not merely a "dangerous" team, or a team that "nobody wants to play." They're the best team in football right now.
I mean it’s pretty bad when Colinsworth has to drop the “well, little bit of a grab,” “kinda got away with one there” over and over again when they’re trying to show Okung highlights.
Really, it's 42-6. You seriously want to make this about the officiating? Best to go back to the Niners boards.
I still think Seattle gets bounced in the first round. They’ve had pretty much everything go their way in this game. Wait till they play the NFL’s golden boy RG3 in round one on the road. Suddenly the home-cooking refs won’t be there, nor will their roiding, DPI machine DBs.
I'm a niner fan, I've been upset by a few calls this game, but the DPI non-calls don't bother me. First of all, I'd like to see about 50% less DPI called generally. I'd prefer if the defender really was given an equal claim on the ball. Second, the niners play physically when their DBs are in a position to contend for the ball. I can't think of any plays this game where I would have called it and it wasn't called.
I said the niners played very poorly. Also, the refs are totally in the tank for Seattle. What about those two independent statements are you not able to process?
You're right, those are two independent thoughts. The first thought, you're using your brain. Second thought, you're using your heart.
I guess my heart is just making up all the times Colinsworth has had to make excuses for seahawks getting away with something. And he hates the niners. For whatever reason, the refs favor Seattle, they have all year.
'He hates the Niners'. I take it you're a 9-year old boy, correct? Because, otherwise, you sound like a total moron. You're team took a thorough beating, they are likely going to be a 3 seed in the playoffs now, and the last two weeks they have been exposed defensively, once by a great quarterback, and once by a guy who they couldn't chase down.
But, yes, you're right, it's because an announcer 'hates the Niners'.
And by the way, when you join two independent statements with a "but", it's a grammatical sign you don't consider them two independent statements.
Man, I didn't see the 49ers on the recieving end of such a lopsided beatdown. Gore 28 yards rushing, Kaep barely over 50% completions.
The big story to me is that the Seahawks O is having a great day against the niners' elite defense. Obviously Justin Smith is out, but it's hard for me to spot plays where RJF is playing poorly.
Here are some issues I've noticed:
-Niner pass rush can't corral Russell Wilson.
-Carlos Rodgers seems to have been beat a few times and he dropped that pick.
-Our OLBs seem to hesitate every run play in anticipation of the option (especially Ahmad Brooks).
-Our safeties aren't closing in on runs and short passes like they usually do (especially Whitner)
-On that long throw in the 1st half, we didn't even leave a safety back.
I think given the rain and the level of difficulty of the past couple weeks, we may just be worn out. Too bad we're throwing away that bye...
I agree with a lot of this, Wilson was amazingly good. Rogers has been pretty mediocre all year, he isn't worth his.money. I think we got hosed but to some extent the hawks are doing a very good job of coaching how to hold etc and have realised that the refs aren't going to call holding constantly. We also dropped plenty of passes which didn't help.
Seeing the Sherman interview is annoying, the NFL doesn't release the details and he can claim he's innocent even though all the evidence points to Sherman is a cheat, along with Bowner and he's getting away with it.
I still cannot understand why drug cheats only get a four game ban in the NFL. It should be begin with two years if they actually want to dissuade people, like athletics. I also worry that the Hawks approach of holding till they can't call it will spread.
I agree that 4 games seems too short for a PED penalty. I'm really curious how prevalent that is in the NFL though. I feel like the guys who have been caught probably only represent the tip of the iceberg.
One of my greatest fears as a 49er fan is finding out that our awesome defense is roid-fueled. I have no evidence that it is. But look at the bodies of guys like Patrick Willis and Justin Smith. Is the human body supposed to look like that?? I hope I never find out that it's not.
PEDs use on a Bay Area team? Surely you jest.
Steroids are more common in football than any other American professional sport, you just have to totally screw up to be caught. It is a bigger issue in the NFL than MLB by far.
I would assume HGH usage is through the roof in the NFL. Does anybody really think that there are still baseball players using this stuff, fighters in UFC and boxing using it, but that football players just do a lot of situps? I'd guess it's at least 60 percent of the league, but that's also just a random number I made up, so who knows? It's probably more.
If I had to pick poster boys for the 'NFL is probably on steroids/HGH/some other crap we haven't even heard of' movement it would start with Vernon 'muscles on muscles' Davis, move on to Brian 'gained weight, got good, failed test' Cushing, head over to the low round picks that suddenly became great pros starting at corner for Seattle and finish with JJ 'How can anyone that big move that fast?Seriously, go back 1000 years and this guy rules all of Eurasia, he'd outrun the fucking horses, outfight the damn elephants and rip mere humans limb from limb.' Watt. And that's five guys in a league of a thousand, there must be hundreds more, only a moron doesn't think it's an issue. However, that doesn't mean that if you maintain any hope for a clean league that you shouldn't be hoping for better testing and sterner punishments, along with public admonishment for those that fail. To hell with this 'four games and we'll let you pretend it's Adderall' crap. I am aware that the US has an issue with over-prescription of anxiety medication but there does seem to be a lot of NFL players on it.
The shit arse regime just makes it worse, as I have just thrown entirely unsubstantiated accusations at two of my favourite players (Watt and Davis if anyone is counting) just because they're so absurdly beyond normal human limits but my suspicions are aroused because the testing regime is so damn weak. Another reason to curse Goodell.
That description of Watt was positively Tanier-esque.
Karl, it might be better if you start by wondering how Pacman Jones, Michael Vick, and Ray Lewis could be still in the NFL after being involved in crimes much worse than taking PEDs.
I also worry that the Hawks approach of holding till they can't call it will spread.
Oh for chrissake give me a break. Tell me you aren't so naive to think that every team, including your 49ers, isn't striving to do the exact same thing. Uncalled holds happen all the time, and you're always going to see it on "the other team's" offense because when your team has the ball you're watching the ball carrier, not the OL. Just stop it with this already, this is embarrassing.
Seahawks fan, but I agree with the hypothesis that the 49ers are worn out. The 9ers played well in the NE rain, so I'm not buying that. Why do I buy the worn out argument? Look at what NE did (or what they didn't do) in barely beating a pathetic Jags team.
I might buy it a little but for me the final score reflects that the niners played like crap, the Hawks played well, the refs were poor and the game snowballed on SF, without Davis and Manningham they had no way back (that Manningham got hurt on a play that shouldn't have happened is irritating). The niners probably were tired but that's the least of their concerns.
So, Redskins/Cowboys next week's for the division title, then, and since it's flexed into Sunday night by the time they play they'll know if a 9-7 Redskins team can slip in as a wild card (hm...is that even possible? Or is it strictly win-or-stay-home for both clubs, which would really make for an interesting football game. Then again, the Cowboys do not play boring football games this year. Not necessarily *good* football games, but always *interesting* ones...)
Kudos to Aaron and the entire team for the correct (and I believe they were/are the only place that had/has it right) assessment of the Seahawks. When someone comes out and says that not only is an 8-5 team really good, but that might be historically good-- in the same neighborhood as a bunch of teams that won Super Bowls, and said team follows it up with a rout of a bad team followed by a rout of a very good team-- the most decisive three week stretch in modern NFL history-- well, I just have to tip my cap.
After typing the words "Seattle can't win 3 playoff games on the road with a rookie QB just yesterday", I hereby retract them have a replacement.
The only things standing in the way of Pete, Russell, Marshawn, and the 'Roid Boys (and I use that expression with little naivete about any other team in the NFL and PED use, including the one I follow are 1) the emotion in Title Town and b) the legend of one P. Manning.
Seattle will make mincemeat out of RGIII in the first round, as much as that game will be hyped and we'll all want to settle in for a great rookie QB confrontation. Presuming that the Niners defeat the hapless Cardinals next week and that either SF or GB, as the 3 seed, defeat the Bears (Niners will have task) or Vikings (Packers will, by losing in Minnesota, get them "All Week", not just All Day), the Angry Bird Seahawks will expose the Dirty Bird Falcons.
So if, and this is a big if, GB defeats SF in whichever venue they play, I think only the raw emotion of righting the Fail Mary wrong could be enough-- in a violent Lambeau environment to deny Wilson and Co. the NFC title. And in a more substantive fashion, the Packers have found the best balance on both sides of the ball of any non-Pacific Northwest NFC team-- Matthews is leading a revived pass rush; the young DBs are playing as well or better than the Packers secondary did in the run-up to the SB in 2010; and with Grant, Harris or Green, they all of a sudden half a halfway decent running game to compliment Rodgers approaching peak form.
And if the Pack falls short, which they may, only the Denver mix on both sides of the ball plus Peyton's dream season might stop them in the SB. New England does not have enough defense. Houston would be a 7-8 pt underdog to Seattle right now on a neutral field, and the points would not be enough.
Carroll will be insufferable, of course, but the fact is the team is not going to go away any time soon, and unlike USC, Reggie Bush and a house cannot stop this dynasty. Count me in-- begrudging as it must be for a Packers fan-- Seattle is the real deal.
As a Bronco fan, I have developed a sincere fear of meeting the Seahawks in the Super Bowl... I have actually developed a sincere fear of meeting most of the NFC teams that are in the running for the playoffs. But Seattle might be the most terrifying, given their last month or so.
The one nit I will pick is that I don't think there is any way that Houston would be a 7-8 point dog... Just because that's not how point spreads generally work. I think that the mainstream perception is way behind reality at this point, and spreads are (mostly) opened on perception. I think that the two game separation in their record and the perception that maybe Seattle didn't "deserve" one of their wins (For the love of God, no one take that as an opening to restart the most tedious conversation of the season) would serve to at least keep the spread tighter than that... If not make Houston a slight favorite at least initially. Of course, if those two teams make the Super Bowl and Houston opens as a favorite, I might fly out to Vegas to throw down on that.
Here are all 64 non-tie NFC playoff scenarios in graphic form, distribute this graphic as you see fit:
Yikes. What a mess. Thanks for sharing. The NFC is crazy town banana pants this season.
This is great, but you have a slightly larger version maybe?
As a Seahawks fan, I'm super stoked about the performance, but once again our biggest weakness shown through... base pass rush. I'm concerned with our inability to create any sort of 4-man pass-rush - not even pressures. Our blitz schemes have not been very effective (only 6.5 sacks total from non D-line types on the season).
The 2 teams I'd least like to face in the post-season are GB and Atl.
I'd feel very confident going into a SF rematch - especially with their injuries, and think we match up really well against DC.
Having beaten Dallas and Minnesota pretty easily, I feel good about those match-ups as well.
What do others think?
I think my biggest concern for SEA is that I worry about Russell playing all of a sudden playing like a rookie at an inopportune time in the playoffs. It can be easy to forget this kid just started sometimes, but even tonight after he threw the INT it looked like the Niners D started to get to him and he seemed really indecisive for a whole quarter.
Also, I'm still not in love with our playcalling at times. It seems like we get cute on 3rd and short too often.
But, I really do like our chances overall, especially if we luck into the division title or even better the #2 seedd.
The lack of pressure isn't ideal but when our secondary can cover as well as it has, especially in the red zone, it's a secondary or even tertiary issue. The fact that Seattle shut that offense down with its 5th (and 6th on nickel packages) string corners in leaves me not that concerned. With that said, a 3-tech DT that can generate pressure seems like priority #1 and #1a in the draft.
Not especially scared of Atlanta. Will never NOT treat a game against SF as life or death. GB scares me too. If Seattle's good enough to get to the SuperB owl Denver scares the crap out of me, and NE as well.
As a football fan, I think a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl would be outstanding. As a Denver fan, I would absolutely hate to see it happen. But then again, I would feel pretty much the same level of trepidation for a Denver-Green Bay or Denver-San Francisco Super Bowl.
And yes, I know I'm probably underrating the Falcons for not including them in that list. But for whatever reason, they don't elicit the same visceral response in me. No offense intended to Falcon fans... Just my flawed perception of reality at play here.
I think the Falcons do some stuff scheme wise on defense which isn't immediately obvious, but which is obviously impactful. Then Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the seemingly immortal Tony Gonzolaz are going to make their share of plays. I don't think they've played the whole season as good as their record, but I think they're playing much better of late. And, that a team that doesn't prepare like they're playing a team with the Falcons record might just end up getting themselves embarrassed.
That said, the Seahawks crushing the Broncos would exercise a lot of demons from my youth. I'm not saying I want to see my southeastern sky alight with flames consuming everything in the state of Colorado, as the wind stirred by the conflagration carries the screams of the damned to my ears, because that sounds like it could reflect poorly on me. I mean it's not like I'd go out in the stinging winter rain, stripped to the waist, to bathe in the glow while laughing maniacly. I'd probably just watch it on TV or something.
I completely agree with what you said about the Falcons. I'm aware that I'm (probably) wrong in my assessment of them and that regardless of what anyone thinks of them, any team that doesn't take them seriously is probably in for a world of hurt. I've watched Peyton Manning pretty closely throughout his career, and I'm not convinced that I've seen him more out of sorts than he was in the first half of the Denver-Atlanta game this season.
That second paragraph was masterful.
As a Denver fan, I'd be thrilled to be playing Seattle in the Super Bowl because that would mean we survived Manning-Brady IV.
Of course, I'd be even more thrilled to be playing the Falcons, Vikings, Cowboys, or Redskins.
A real Denver fan would be more thrilled to play against the Packers, 49ets, or Seahawks, unless you only value empty victories over inferior opponents.
While I appreciate the purity of your sentiment, I don't think there's anything wrong or weak about hoping for a more favorable matchup in the Super Bowl for your favorite team. In fact, I think most (but certainly not all) fans of teams who have a real shot at winning think in these terms pretty frequently.
As a Falcons fan, I'm not stoked about having to face the Seahawks, if it comes to that.
If we can
1) keep Ryan comfortable
2) get even an average running attack
3) make a few plays (sacks, turnovers) on defense
we'll have a chance against anyone. But we've had trouble against physical fronts, especially against our interior OL. Ryan's not a statue, but he's not mobile enough to deal with a heavy rush up the middle, which is the weak spot of our line. And I'm hoping Turner comes down with a lacerated ear lobe or something and has to be put on IR, because he's a well below average RB. We haven't been able to ride him to victory in prior playoff appearances, and it's not going to work this time either.
I haven't watched much of the Seahawks since maybe that game in San Fran in mid-October. The offense looked very different last night, but maybe I missed something. Last night Wilson was rarely just sitting in the pocket - the play design had him moving on most snaps. And that zone read can cause problems. The Panthers drove us crazy with it this season, but then I guess Newton is probably a more dangerous runner than Wilson, so that's nice.
Anyway, lots of golf left.
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