Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Sep 2009

Week 4 Open Discussion Thread

In the proper place this week ... Your Week 4 Open Discussion Thread.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 30 Sep 2009

90 replies , Last at 06 Oct 2009, 4:42pm by Moridin

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 11:20am

Woo, football!

2
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Hurt Bones :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 11:57am

I believe there is a two woo minimum with an exclamation point. w=!+1

Woo woo woo, football!!

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by wagnew :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 12:54pm

Keyshaun just called them the St. Louis Lambs on national TV. The Rams use that to help beat the Niners. Bulger on the bench!

Wil

4
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by joe football (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 1:47pm

Be sure to join a star-studded cast of your favorite FO posters for IRC football chat! Server: bendenweyr.dyndns.org, channel #fo

Brief tutorials for the IRC-shy:

- go to mirc.com and download the client

- type /server bendenweyr.dyndns.org in the status window

- type /join #fo in the status window

or

- go to mibbit.com

- click on the server link and paste bendenweyr.dyndns.org as the address

- enter #fo as the channel, pick a nick, hit go

Please do something to get these open threads back on track, it is disheartening to see it like this when they used to be such an awesome companion to watching games. Better front page placement would help

5
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Rocco :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 1:56pm

Anyone know why Ryan Moats is getting carries for Houston?

8
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by JIPanick :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:01pm

I think Slaton was just benched for the fumble. Seems to have recovered.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Rocco :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 2:25pm

At some point the Ravens will learn that touching Tom Brady is a penalty and will stop.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 2:25pm

If by touching you mean diving at his knees, sure.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by JIPanick :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:02pm

Anyone else have absolutely disgusting TV quality for Chiefs-Giants?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:17pm

Do you mean because the Chiefs are playing, or is there some other quality issue with the game?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by JIPanick :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:27pm

Poor broadcast quality. Keeps skipping and the picture is poor. I'm sure the Chiefs' play would be ugly too, if only I could see them...

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by sldfkjsfls (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:06pm

The Ravens' bench got a 15 yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct, apparently because Harbaugh was woofing at the ref over what he thought was a dubious illegal contact call against his defense. Don't see that too often...

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:15pm

I found it rather funny.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:13pm

There haven't been a lot of calls going BAL's way. NE's gotten the benefit of several calls -- two roughing the passer calls on 3rd downs to keep separate (eventual) TD drives alive, and now the unspotted but called 1st down on the fake FG, that makes BAL take a challenge TO, and not get the ball. I'd be a bit pissed, too.

I'd love to see the NE fans explain those roughing calls -- from 2003-2005 all they could complain about was the emasculation of football by too many calls.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:19pm

You see, there's this new rule that says a defensive player can't dive at the QB's knees, which explains the second roughing the passer call. The first one was hands to the face, the same call the Patriots defender was called on later in the game.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 6:56pm

You see, the defender touched The Golden One with a hand, not anything more. That was such a dangerous dive at the knees.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by PatsFan :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 8:46pm

A Colts homer bitching about a QB getting favorable treatment is pretty damned hilarious.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Bobman :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 4:13am

Oh font of wisdom, please cite the last roughing penalty against a Colts opponent.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by sldfkjsfls (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:28pm

Uh, they reviewed the play and didn't find sufficient evidence to overturn the call of a first down. It's not like the refs made him throw the red flag..

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 6:55pm

The refs never even marked the ball. They screwed up. Then, they tried to use video to spot when the player went out of bounds.

Hey, I'm not saying the Pats did anything wrong -- I'd take those calls, too. What I am saying is that Baltimore's coach had reason to be hot about the refs. And, the announcers noted during the call on the bench that they had never actually seen that call made -- unsportsmanlike on the coach for yelling at refs. Thin skin much?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 8:31pm

Harbaugh got the penalty cause he was complaining about an illegal contact call on the Baltimore defense. And the replay clearly showed there was contact and the call was correct.
Edit: You're right that the refs screwed up on the illegal shift penalty, but (I'm assuming that an illegal shift is the same as illegal motion), the play should have been blown dead at that point. The pass never happened, and the Ravens wouldn't have gotten a chance to decline the penalty, as there was no play. It's the same thing as a false start penalty.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 12:10pm

An illegal shift does not stop play. The play can count if the penalty is refused. Only a false start and a defensive offsides unabated to the quarterback stop play.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Eddo :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 1:39pm

And delay-of-game, encroachment, and neutral zone infraction. But your point still stands, I'm mostly certain illegal shift is a non-play-stopping penalty.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by PatsFan :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 8:46pm

(deleted -- replied to wrong post)

13
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:24pm

So, who loses their starting job first, Jake Delhomme or Jason Campbell? I'm betting on Campbell, cause Zorn needs to do something to save his job.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:38pm

I would bet Campbell, too. He may be losing his by tomorrow morning.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 12:12pm

After the first game, Delhomme hasn't made a mistake. He has three interceptions, but all three are on the receivers. He has thrown some beautiful passes in the interim. Who else are they going to start?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by tuluse :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 1:52pm

After the first game, Delhomme hasn't made a mistake.
This might be the craziest assertion I've ever heard.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by sldfkjsfls (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 3:57pm

I hope Harbaugh wasn't planning on needing that timeout later...looked like a clear catch to me.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:10pm

Why would you need a timeout in the 4th quarter of a close game?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Harris :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:14pm

My guess is that he's challenging the spot. It's Ravens ball if the fake didn't get the first down.

Hail Hydra!

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by dianagram :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:25pm

Seneca Wallace .... 33 for 45, 1 TD ... begs the question ... what is the record for most completions with no or only 1 TD in a game

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 6:07pm
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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 6:33pm

Second on that list is even more impressive. Warren Moon: 41 Completions, for 432 yards, zero touchdowns.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by John (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:28pm

For those of us without TV (and with an intense desire to see the Patriots lose), someone please post when Ravens succeed or fail.

Danke.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by John (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:28pm

Ach, looks like they blew it.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by sldfkjsfls (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:29pm

Fourth down drop to give the Patriots the win.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by John (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:41pm

Manning's 4th straight game with 300 yards...that means he got over 300 against Miami? 15 minutes, 300 yards. Amazing.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 5:32pm

20 yards a minute...seems about right.
Sure enough, his line for that game: 14/23 303 Yards 2 TDs 0 Ints.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by TimK :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 7:30pm

Well the Broncos defense seems to be at least half as good as their numbers (and much more than twice as good as last years' disaster).

Still question marks about the offense seemingly starting so slowly each week. But as a fan I'd take a suspect 4-0 team over an unlucky 0-4 team... (and several years of Shanahan offenses starting fsst and then stagnating later in games at least makes this a change).

I guess this is case of DAVE having trouble due to so many changes prediction becomes a toss-up, you can only go by the fact that wholesale changes normally mean trouble.

Be interested to see what DVOA makes of this game. It seemed to be a real game of two halves.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 8:35pm

Their defense definitely is better, but I want to know how much of today's performance can be attributed to Denver, and how much can be attributed to Dallas sucking. Dallas's offense really looked out of sorts.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by TimK :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 7:43am

Hard to tell by eye whether an offense is out-of-sorts or a defense is making it seem out of sorts. That is one of the things that most interests me about the whole advanced stats project : trying to help work out which is happening, or what proportion of the two.

I only listen on radio in the UK, so don't see much (except for the Sunday Night game), but it seems as though Denver are making good adjustments this year. Got gashed by some screens early but then changed the rush schemes and closed them down, or perhaps simply reduced the amount they blitzed and used the threat of early success in blitzing to keep Cowboys off-balance. They certainly have a valid pass rush for the first time in years, and that can cure a multitude of smaller defensive problems.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by neville :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 10:18pm

Ron Winter: is Tom Brady really so valuable to the NFL that defenses aren't allowed to, um, play football against the Patriots?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Bobman :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 4:17am

Ron Winter?!?! Wasn't it his crew who threw four flags on the Chargers' OT drive in the playoffs last year?

Pretty freakin' flag-happy, I'd say.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 11:17pm

Man, what's going on in Pittsburgh? Nice job with San Deigo pulling off the surprise onsides kick when they're down 14 with 4+ minutes to go.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Slinger (not verified) :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 11:50pm

I still say that ball was uncatchable.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Stitchcaa :: Sun, 10/04/2009 - 11:52pm

Is it just me, or was the clock management during the last two minutes of the SD-Pitt game massively terrible from BOTH sides? Why doesnt Pitt run on 3rd and 19 then punt with 45 seconds left instead of risking an incomplete pass?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 8:21pm

Let Brett Favre Bowl I commence...

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:03pm

Not quite the Favre Bowl to start of course.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 8:59pm

Uh, defensive taunting? Maybe shouldn't be jawing in the first 5 minutes of a game when the O is still moving down the field.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:05pm

Heh, I was just about to make a comment about the obvious hold not being mentioned, and then Jaws does us proud.

And TD Favre to finish the drive.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:10pm

That Jermichael Finley, he's not bad...

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:12pm

Well, that blitz sucked. Why was there only 1 back in that area with 2 Packers?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:24pm

Uh, how do you get sacked when someone takes a 5 yard dead run at you while you are looking at him?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:25pm

Okay, that catch was ridiculous.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:26pm

Good, now Childress lost his chance to waste a challenge/timeout.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:27pm

Ha! Nice route jump by Winfield, he looked like he was in front when Rodgers started that throw.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:36pm

So they call the holding on woodson, but miss the tackle the offensive line had on the lineman...

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:39pm

From what I've been able to tell, holding for linemen tends be when the O man is beaten and pulling him away from the QB. Rarely gets called even if the guy is sitting on him.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:40pm

...and the screeching weasels of minnesota go wild...

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:41pm

God, is it nice to have a QB who isn't T. Jack to make QB-like throws consistently.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:44pm

Bleck. Injuries suck.

I love this Sears commercial even more in the longer version. I'm glad he's willing to make fun of himself.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:49pm

Has Rodgers been holding the ball this long before this season? Especially with an injury altered O-line, I'd think they would be trying to do quick drop throws.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:51pm

Wow, that was the 2nd one of those strip-6s this weekend.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:59pm

Son-of-a... dammit Berrian, get on the same page as Favre soon so those throws are TDs instead of sad, full-of-potential incompletions. The Vikings had their fill of that shit when Williamson was still one of our wideouts.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 9:58pm

seriously, why blitz favre on 3rd and long?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:03pm

Okay, that pass was read the whole way. Nice catch on the int too. It was interference, but mostly just as he was passing by. The offsides thankfully would've taken it back anyway.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:02pm

God, I hate Gruden as an announcer.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:05pm

What specifically? I certainly like him better than Tirico or Miller (not exactly a high bar there).

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:06pm

His voice, his innane comments. His complet lack of having anything interesting to say, his love of QBs, best exmplified of in the Carolina game when he blamed the receiver for one of Delhomme's atrocious interceptions.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:12pm

Ah. I don't mind the voice, but I'll have to pay attention for the 2nd half to what he actually says. Given the fun he had in Tampa with QBs, I'm surprised he's still a QB firster.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:24pm

You know, shouldn't the announcers mention the breast cancer awareness thing once in a while? I mean, I can guess what the pink stands for and all, but the only reason I knew for sure on Sunday was the NFL Gameday guys mentioning it.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:30pm

Okay, seriously. You can't give any QB infinite time in the pocket, but certainly not a competent one.

And a follow up to Berrian finally.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:34pm

Ah, there's that Viking special teams I've been dreading. Annnnnnnnd, never mind. Penalty negation.

75
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:40pm

Hmm... you know, this year the Vikings run D seems more like that it should be unbeatable rather than actually being. I wonder if Pat is showing his age.

76
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:44pm

The Pack should probably be doing a screen every couple of plays. Its not like the Viking D has done anything resembling stopping it yet.

Definately not a fumble.

77
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:55pm

Damn, I'm glad Shiancoe got his act together after we got him from the Giants.

78
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:57pm

I wonder what Chester Taylor thinks of being a pass-catching back now... he so rarely gets to run anymore.

79
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:59pm

have the vikings had a penalty accepted against them yet?

80
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:03pm

Uhm... ... A holding call early on wasn't it? They also had an illegal formation (declined, but I think you remembered that based on your comment), but I can't remember anything else.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:10pm

Ouch on the knee.

I also can't imagine having a new backup come in at LT doing much for the packer's passing attack for the rest of this game. Hopefully more/everyone is back in a few weeks for when we come to GB.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:30pm

Two great punts for Klewe and the special teams.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:32pm

Uh, Vikings? Maybe remember the game isn't officially over?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:46pm

gah, prevent defenses suck to watch.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:51pm

Kneel to win!

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:57pm

I have a hard time believing Morten or Gary Anderson or some other kicker (or backup like Garcia) hasn't 'defeated' every team in the nfl. Did someone curtail that list by skill position starters?

87
Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by ChrisZ (not verified) :: Mon, 10/05/2009 - 11:58pm

Anyone else think that down 16 points, it might be a better call to go for 1 pt conversions and a field goal to win rather than 2 pt conversions to send it into overtime?

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Shane S. (not verified) :: Tue, 10/06/2009 - 12:04am

you know, one of my friends and I had a conversation the other day. You know about Touchdown Jesus? Well, why can't there be a Safety Satan that is in the stadium? I couldn't help but think about this the two times the teams were near their own goal line....

Announcer: "And Rodgers has them lined up inside their own 1 yard line...flag on the play...looks like there's another false start."
Announcer 2: "I tell you, Jon, the hotfeet the Safety Satan has been giving the offensive line has really caused some problems here near the goal line."

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by JG (not verified) :: Tue, 10/06/2009 - 2:06am

Was it Gruden or Jaws that said something like "Rodgers needs to do a better job of getting his receivers open?" What the heck is that supposed to mean? Is he operating dudes with a joystick while scrambling for his life?

---

If Favre can abstain the whole year from becoming that lovable gunslinger with horrible horrible judgment, his numbers could wind up being pretty ridiculous by waiting to chuck it until defenses have committed all their resources to stopping #28. I personally love the Brett Favre who wants to go downfield into tight coverage on a 3rd and 2 with a receiver open in the flat. That guy is crazy entertaining.

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Re: Week 4 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Tue, 10/06/2009 - 4:42pm

I can only hope they meant he wasn't doing a good job of pump faking or looking off the safety type things (did he have time to?).

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