Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Nov 2013

Week 9 Open Discussion Thread

Discuss all the Week 9 football happenings in this thread.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 03 Nov 2013

170 replies , Last at 05 Nov 2013, 1:13pm by Jimmy

1
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by justanothersteve :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 8:31pm

Pretty amazing that tonight is the last chance for an NFL team from any team in Florida to get a win in October. Last time a Florida-based team won: Dolphins on 22 September.

8
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by JIPanick :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 12:07am

There were three minutes left in the month when they pulled it out. So close.

2
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:24pm

Dalton making horrible throws to his sideline receivers. Result: two interceptions, second for a TD. And like that the Dolphins are up by 14 in a game where they don't look like the stronger team.

3
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:50pm

Wow, I forget this game is even on, show up to see the Bengals score the 1st td and then a quick 2nd to tie it up. Good to know I seem to have not missed much.

4
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Anger...rising :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:24pm

Nugent made the kick, but the way Cincinnati played that after having 1st-and-10 at the 42 was beyond dumb.

5
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by justanothersteve :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:57pm

Whoa! I have never seen an OT end in a safety. Cool.

6
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DEW (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:58pm

I wonder how many games have ever been won in overtime on a safety before tonight...talk about a weird way to go!

9
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Ender (not verified) :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 12:08am

Apparently this is the 3rd.

20
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by steveNC (not verified) :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 10:41am

But the first with a QB sack safety ending OT.

7
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Ender (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:59pm

Dalton is pretty clearly in the Eli, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Cutler etc class of elite QB. The guys that require their WR to bail them out constantly because their throws are erratic type of guys.

10
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Steve in WI :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 12:22am

I know conventional wisdom says that Cincinnati was correct to punt in overtime rather than attempt a ~57 yard field goal, but I would have liked to see them try it. Nugent was good from 54 just a few minutes before, and the benefit of pinning Miami deep disappeared when the Bengals defense let them march down the field.

11
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 12:27am

Conventional wisdom is wrong. Your kicker just nailed a 54 yarder with plenty to spare to send it to OT. He's won 2 games already with FGs, why not give him a shot?

13
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Perfundle :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 2:40am

Well, you could argue the same for Miami, who passed up a 58-yard field goal; Sturgis has made a 54-yarder this year as well, after all. Seemed to work out for them.

Meanwhile, missing the field goal would put Miami on their own 47, so they only need to go less than 20 yards to get into field goal range.

19
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DEW (not verified) :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 10:40am

I can see why Cincy would pass on the 57-yarder. The chance that Miami's offense would run down the length of the field against a normal (non-prevent) defense to get into FG range was pretty negligible; that two-minute drill was basically the only time it had shown up at all since halftime. And indeed, while field position did end up with them in their own end, eventually, the Cincy defense did indeed stop Miami's offense.

The Miami decision I'm not as sure about, on the grounds that with their shaky offense the number of times they would get that close again is not guaranteed to be something other than zero. I guess it comes down to Sturgis's range...or to a fear that Cincy picking up a couple of first downs was next to inevitable.

I don't know...it's hard, though, to pass up a shot to have a 50/50-ish chance of winning the game outright on one play.

12
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 12:28am

BTW, craziest thing about tonight's game had to do with gambling. The total on this game was 42. Going into OT at 40, the chances of not losing an under bet was virtually nil. The safety pushed it which was unreal.

14
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 4:37am

Does a bet on points scored include OT?! That seems odd. All bets in Europe, on soccer anyway, are made for regulation only.

23
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Perfundle :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 3:20pm

It depends. I believe you can choose to bet on either kind.

24
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by leviramsey (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:33am

American football betting (and that for most other North American sports for that matter) normally includes OT unless specifically stated otherwise. There was a lot of discussion on the gambling forums I lurk at regarding the effect of the new overtime rules.

It's especially crazy in college football totals where you can pretty easily see 20 points scored in OT. On a particularly close game, betting the under is tantamount to a bet that it won't go OT.

26
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 2:04pm

So if i take a team -1 against the spread and the game is tied after regulation, I can still lose? Thats crazy. By any reasonable definition I was right to take the underdog and the points, yet i still lose if the favorite wins in OT.

44
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by leviramsey (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:51pm

Yeah, quoting from a sportsbook's rules

"Winners and losers are official after: • Soccer 90 minutes of play - Overtime and/or Penalty shots are not included
• Football - NCAA & NFL - 55 minutes of play
• Basketball - NBA - 43 minutes of play
• Basketball - NCAA - 35 minutes of play
• Hockey - NHL - 55 minutes of play
• All other sporting events - 55 minutes of play
• Overtime periods, quarters or extra innings are counted in the final score when wagering on totals, money line and spread betting unless specified and with the exception of soccer lines including a quote for a draw.
• On half time wagers, overtime periods are included as part of the second half.
• All period and quarter wagers placed are for that specific period or quarter only. All overtime wagers placed will be for the full overtime, regardless of how many overtimes
• Other sports: All other contests that involve a scheduled length of play time or time limit must play to their conclusion or have five minutes or less of scheduled playing time remaining when the contest concludes to be considered official for betting purposes."

75
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Eddo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:40pm

What you've quoted refers to when a game is official, as in "has officially been played". So this:

"Football - NCAA & NFL - 55 minutes of play"

Means that, if due to weather or whatever, an NFL game is stopped with six minutes left, the sports book will not consider the game to be played and will nullify all bets (and give people their money back).

It has nothing to do with how the final score is determined. If a game is tied after 55 minutes, but ends up as a three-point game, the book will pay out based on the three-point actual spread.

78
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by leviramsey (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:47pm

I was merely quoting the whole rule... should have boldfaced the overtime bit.

89
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Eddo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:21pm

Gotcha. Carry on then.

69
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:04pm

Yeah well welcome to gambling.

15
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 4:38am

Ugh, Geno Atkins believed to have torn ACL.

22
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 11:13am

Yes, ESPN is reporting that he's out for the season.

I expect FO to give this news its own thread.

Huge blow to the Bengals.

16
Re: Week 9/Hartline's "catch"
by rgrunder :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 8:15am

What about Hartline's suspect "catch" late in regulation? Did the Bengals still have a challenge left? Why did the announcers barely mention this? Why did NFL not even bother w/a replay? I do not think he got his second foot down and I cannot believe Lewis didn't challenge that, assuming he could have.

21
Re: Week 9/Hartline's "catch"
by rgrunder :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 10:42am

I guess it was under 2 minutes to go in regulation, so why no booth review? Can't blame Lewis, anyway.

17
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Mike B. In Va :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 8:51am

There was some pretty rotten officiating in this game, including the "hold" on Gresham on the TD-that-wasn't and the phantom push-off on, I believe, Hartline. I could see how the push-off call got made, since the corner fell down, but I have no idea how that was holding on Gresham.

18
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Mike B. In Va :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 8:53am

I give up. I had more to say but the spam filter is killing me.

25
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by joe football (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 1:42pm

Be sure join a star-studded cast of your favorite FO posters for another season of internet relay football chat!
Instructions moved to a pastebin due to overzealous spam filter: http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=Qjf3ZzvE

27
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 2:30pm

Washington starts their first drive at their own 1, drive to the red zone before stalling out. The FG is blocked leaving the Skins with 0 points for an 8 minute drive.

28
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 2:39pm

Scifres' punt pins the Skins at their 1 again. SD's LE bats the ball at the line, and it is intercepted by their DT in the end zone for a TD.

29
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 2:41pm

The batter? The same lineman who blcked the FG earlier. I wanna say Ray Guy, which is certainly wrong.

30
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:05pm

What is happening to Ron Rivera is the best thing to happen to football analytics since Bill James. He, once again, goes for it on 4th down = easy, wide open touchdown.

50
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Nick2 (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:19pm

I know I'm thrilled. I'm actually kind of worried that he'll be let go if the Panthers slip against a tough second half schedule.

31
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:13pm

The Jets manage to have a 93-yard drive that results in only a field goal. They kick it from only three yards out… The Saints quickly score a touchdown on the next possession, of course.

32
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:24pm

San Diego blocks their second FG of the game as time expires at the end of the first half. They had went 11 years without blocking a FG and now have 2 in the game.

33
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:44pm

The Bills have first and goal at the KC 1, up 10-3. After two failed runs, Tuel throws a pick-six.

34
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:44pm

Chiefs with a 99 yard pick six in Buffalo. Ugh.

35
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:44pm

Wow!

The Bills were knocking on the door to a 17-3 lead having driven down to the one yard line to start the third quarter, but after a couple of stops, Kansas City intercepts the ball and returns it for a touchdown to tie the game.

36
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:47pm

Apparently Tuel was throwing to a spot. It was the easiest interception any defender has ever had.

38
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:00pm

Richard Sherman against Matt Schaub disagrees.

40
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:09pm

Andre Johnson could've broken that one up. At least he was close by. This would've been caught by almost anyone.

37
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 3:54pm

It was good to see the Bills go for it on fourth and three at the 37.

And, it was good to hear the announcers laud the decision.

It just sucks that the first down wasn't picked up as the ball was just a hair overthrown on a deep pass.

39
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:03pm

All of DC holds its breath as RG3 goes airborne trying to convert a 3rd and 10. He landed on his upper back after getting hit and spun in mid air. Amazing play, but he is not likely to last attempting those sorts of moves. First time I've watched RG3 for any length of time; he takes an absolute licking. I'd really think the Skins' would try to protect the QB they mortgaged several drafts for.

41
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:20pm

Alex Smith throws a pass behind the LOS to Charles, who is completely covered by a defender for a 2-yd loss. Inexplicable.

42
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by TimK :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:26pm

The KC Offense is obviously under instructions to just contain the Buffalo Defense and let their own defense score all the points... Wondering what the worst DVOA for a 9-0 team is now...

43
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:30pm

I get up for a few minutes and miss another KC defensive score. DVOA is going to really hate this performance by the Chiefs.

45
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by platypus (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 4:56pm

Flowers with the NFL's first ever pass defensed post-play.

46
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:01pm

The Skins have SD in a 4th and 2 which will end the game. They lose track of Keenan Allen who Rivers connects with for a big 20 yard gain on the 4th down.

47
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:06pm

The Jets have scored six times, but four of those are field goals. I have a feeling this will end 27-26 Saints.

48
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:10pm

Why is Rivers in shotgun inside the 1- yd line? Why are you throwing away the QB sneak?

49
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:17pm

It didn't end up that way, but one possible reason is you plan to draw.

51
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:29pm

It's possible to run a draw with the QB under center, even QB draws. The point is to make the defense have to cover more options.

52
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:29pm

Garcon lowers his head as he catches a pass in OT, the first Charger at the reception hits on him the shoulder and drives Garcon into another Charger whose shoulder might have hit Garcon's helmet. 15 yard penalty for the hit. The second Charger was in perfect position, makes the tackle, wraps Garcon up. Any "hit to the head" occured because of Garcon lowering his head into the contact.

55
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:35pm

It's not as if the SD defense was doing anything to stop Washington...

53
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:30pm

And the SD defense comes through by surrendering to the Washington offense.

54
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DA (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:32pm

I have an OT Question, imagine this scenario:

-Team A receives the ball 1st in OT, takes the entire 15 Mins on its drive and kicks a FG as time expires, what happens next:

1)Due to new rule, Team B gets its fair shot because it did not yet receive the ball
2)Team A wins, it is up by 3 with 0 time on the clock
3)It is a Tie because the clock expired without a Winner

58
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:51pm

That's a great question. I guarantee it wouldn't be the third option though.

80
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:01pm

Max 15 extra time in the regular season.
So if you score a FG, you've won if there's no time left.

Answer 2.

">> Following...the end of the regulation game, play will be continued in 15-minute periods until a winner is declared. Each team must possess or have the opportunity to possess the ball unless the team that has the ball first scores a touchdown on its initial possession. In preseason and regular season games there shall be a maximum of 15 minutes of over time"

56
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Anger...rising :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:46pm

Balls rewarded in Cleveland, as the Browns score on 4th-and-goal.

57
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:48pm

Commentary NE vs Pit:
"Pittsburgh need to run the ball, the key is to run the ball versus this defense which is 31st in the league, that's a real number... if they run the ball then Roethlisberger can go passing deep and that's how you win the game"

Commentator said this almost literally, I think it was Jim Nantz, but I never pay attention to those names.

59
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 5:57pm

I'm glad he said it was a real number, because the Patriots run D has been mostly imaginary after Wilfork got injured.

79
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by leviramsey (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:49pm

It's complex, man.

60
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by SFC B :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:08pm

Bell from PIT gets called for a chop block when he takes the legs out of a Patriot rushing him. I understand the concept of the "engaged player", but the rusher had blown by the PIT O-lineman and was well into the backfield. The "engaged" in this scenario was "lineman waved his hands in the direction of the defensive player".

61
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Anger...rising :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:10pm

Running back JUMP PASS to put the Bucs up 21-0 on Seattle.

62
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:13pm

Left trigger, pass button in NFL Street.

64
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Ben :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:22pm

What the heck is going on with the rest of that game though? I know the Seahawks fumbled a kickoff, but 21-0 to the Bucs?!?

67
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Anger...rising :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:54pm

James has repeatedly gashed the Seahawks up the middle, and Glennon's had time and been picking them apart. It's been a shocking display.

72
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Steve in WI :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:19pm

Whatever happens in the rest of the game, Seattle looks like a deeply flawed team. The NFC looks like a crapshoot as far as what will happen in the playoffs...it's not too hard to predict who'll get in, but of the teams that are likely to make it I wouldn't be surprised with any result head-to-head.

85
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Scott Crowder (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:37pm

All season long, Seattle has been a schizoid team. First half, awful, gut wrenching awful. Second half, unbeatable. The coaching staff has always been second to none in halftime adjustments since Carroll took over, but how can they get out game planned so bad by every single team they face in the first half. When Schiano out game plans you in the first half, you know you have to do better. Of course, the ridiculously bad PI call on ET in the first half that took away an INT and led to a Buc TD didn't help. We've come to expect that from Mr. Carey in Seattle, however. Then the Kearse fumble on the return setting up a quick second TD made this a much tougher game than it had to be.

But in the end, just once, I'd like to see Seattle come out like they've actually prepared for the game in the first half.

132
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Insancipitory :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 1:55am

But in the end, just once, I'd like to see Seattle come out like they've actually prepared for the game in the first half.

I wish I could say something classy and refutational, but that just wouldn't be our style. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

63
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Ben :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:21pm

Double post

65
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:40pm

The Eagles have put up 28 in the first half. That will make it a bit harder for Tanier to write his weekly 'Kelly's offense is overrated' section.

66
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:52pm

Maybe the Steelers should start to play straight defense and not have Polamalu gamble wrong on every play instead of worrying about his OCD'ing after ever single play.

68
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Juvenal (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 6:56pm

43 on pit is really a liability out there these days. He should be cut.

70
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:04pm

Just wanted to say he should be a situational linebacker by now. Not a starting safety. But the next guy is Shamarko Thomas, a rookie. Robert Golden and Will Allen are not high flyers either.

By biggest problem with Polamalu is that he just plays halfheartedly, gives up on plays and he just gambles wrong all the time.
If you don't want to play, then don't. If you do, go 100% and see how long you hold up. Don't put the amplifier at 80 so you can half-ass yourself through another season.

73
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:24pm

And then, of course, he forces a turnover that gives the Steelers the ball in NE territory.

I just love how some people think that a team should cut a 5-time Pro Bowl player just like that, because he's obviously the biggest liability, unlike your OL, DL, or running game.

76
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Juvenal (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:41pm

Yay he made one say 2pt play. While all game he has been costing you .05pts a snap, and .5pts when he gambles wrong very 6th play. This has always been the problem with him. People remember all the big plays that help, not the you sand paper cuts that bleed you. And who cares who he was 5 year ago. He is terrible right now and will likel be worse next year and that is what matters. The DL might not look as bad if the enemies players were actually covered.

87
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:57pm

Yeah, given how bad the CBs looked, how the pass rush stinks, and how poorly they held against the run, Polamalu is def the Steelers' biggest liability.

88
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Juvenal (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:17pm

IDK, I only watched the first 3/4 of the game, but half the Patriots big plays he was out of position.

77
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:46pm

Never agreed with cutting him, he's just a liability in the passing game. Yes, he makes a play now and then, but he's only still starting because the Steelers play their veterans a long time. (and, who knows, because of the Pro Bowls)
There's a good and a bad to that.
The good thing is you play someone after his prime, but is still good, so you can upgrade other parts of the team.
The downside is that they play too long past their prime and become hit or miss players. And as a safety, a miss often means a TD. Of all positions, I think safety should be most consistent.

71
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:16pm

Nick Foles will probably be able to tie or break the record for most touchdown passes in a game if Chip Kelly wants him too. But, the Eagles are up by so much they might just run the ball the rest of the game.

74
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 7:30pm

CBS announcers rationalizing a body slam by a Raven defender long after an incomplete pass. "How does he know he doesn't have the ball?" Well, given that the receiver never had the ball, and that it was bouncing on the ground 10 yards away, asking for just a little awareness before a judo throw isn't asking all that much.

81
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DA (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:03pm

TB is stupid to Punt from Midfield with 20 Seconds left. They really think they have a better chance of winning in OT than converting 4th and 3/picking up 12 or so more yard to attempt the game winning FG????

82
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Juvenal (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:22pm

TB is stupid I think sums up their coaching staff nicely.

83
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:25pm

So, who thought, in the 3x years (I think it was said), that the 2 modern NFL QB's that would throw for 7 TDs in one game would be Peyton Manning and Nick Foles (against the Ravens and the Raiders, respectively)? There's not much I would've said those two would have in common, but a TD passing record wouldn't have been my first thought if I was forced to throw out a possibility.

90
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DavidL :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:27pm

I would have gone with funny faces and Foles repeating Manning's neck injury, with NFL-record touchdown passes about 769th on the list.

112
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:18pm

with the changes in this sport, 8 TD passes are just around the corner....

84
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:30pm

Glad to see Jason Campbell have a good game today. Given how many flat-out awful QBs there are in the NFL, it seems that Campbell ought to have a job somewhere.

Now if only he can avoid the Weeden curse.

101
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:40pm

Greg Little finally came through, too (besides the penalty,) and Bess redeemed himself after last week's disaster.

Also, someone has to say it, Jim Mora speeches notwithstanding: they're right with the other wildcard contenders, and only 2 games back in their division. :)

114
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:54pm

And Orton too. Both those guys have to be one of the 25 best QB in the league.

I understand there isn't much upside with either, but you could certainly do worse.

135
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Anonymooooose (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 8:02am

I've never understood the Orton hate. It's not like he was a worldbeater here in Denver, as he had some awfully bad red zone difficulties, but at least the dude could get to the red zone. A team like the Browns or Jags would be a lot better with Orton taking snaps.

86
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Scott Crowder (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 8:41pm

And Wilson makes his ninth 4th Quarter come from behind drive in just his 26th game. If they could only play as well in the first half as they do in the second half. Yet, however awful they've looked at times and that oline has got to be the NFL's worst offensive line, they're still 8-1 and their injured starters are coming back in a couple weeks. This team might hit its stride just in time for the playoffs.

100
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:18pm

Or this team may not have an offensive or defensive line good enough to beat some combination of SF, NO and GB (2 of those three) in the playoffs---- I would say one conclusion is just as valid as the other....

133
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Scott Crowder (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 2:17am

NO has shown they're capable of losing to the Jets. SF has been outscored by Seattle 71-16 in their last two meetings and were held to 13, 13 and 3 in their last three matchups. Green Bay needs a defense. Seattle, meanwhile, hasn't looked great, but they've won. So long as they keep doing that, the playoffs will come through Seattle and no matter how ugly they've looked at times, NOBODY can be considered a favorite over them there.

91
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:35pm

Cover Andre Johnson? Nah.

Whoops.

93
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:37pm

dupe

92
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:37pm

uh, well. That's a lousy start for Indy. I guess Keenum's Swagger (per Collinsworth) was enough to psych out Davis.

94
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:42pm

Texans finally look like the team that won the division last season. Where have they been?

98
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:57pm

Perhaps. Or the Colts look like a team that took too much time off -- dropped punt snap, no blocking on FG or punt. Not covering anyone deep.

95
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:53pm

Not sure I've ever seen a punter get that off after scrambling for a drop. Holy crap on his second punt! That Houston guy didn't get the ball at all, he hit the leg halfway through the kick with his stomach.

97
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Steve in WI :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:56pm

That is the worst missed call I've seen this year, no question.

99
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:58pm

Ah, even as a Colts fan I wouldn't call that the worst missed call. It's clearly a missed call, but the angle needed to see that is almost impossible for the ref.

104
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CoachDave :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:53pm

No, that was.

Colts aren't doing too bad considering its 11 v 17 out there.

131
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 1:41am

It's a fine line, but rule 12-2-9b suggests it's not roughing, because the defender arrived at the kicker prior to the ball being kicked. As such, it was the kick itself that resulted in contact. That's not a foul.

96
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Purds :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 9:55pm

Uh, Chuck. You might not want to give the team the entire bye week off next year.

102
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Mike B. In Va :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:49pm

Well, that certainly wasn't what I would call conclusive...

105
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CJS at NYC :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:56pm

Inexcusably poor officiating tonight. Has more than a whiff of The League Office Wants to Keep the AFC South Race Alive-ness.

106
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CJS at NYC :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:57pm

Another double post

103
Double post
by Mike B. In Va :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 10:50pm

Double post

107
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:04pm

Well, Indy's not particularly good. New England had been decidedly mediocre until today. Denver's coach is out for a month-- or more-- and they have been vulnerable lately. Kansas City is a product of a horrible schedule. The Bengals are OK-- but losing to Miami the way they did with Dalton so undependable? (Flacco was, too, we thought) Seattle has played poorly twice in a row and has huge line problems. The Saints got whipped by the Jets. Green Bay is playing well but can they really defy injuries again a la 2010 and will their defense stand up when it really counts?

I think this may all still spin around to the 49ers-- they have the best team on both sides of the ball. But the early belief about the dominance of a few teams is obviously out the window in the "On Any Given Sunday" league.

109
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:08pm

And the team starting to show up a bit on the radar are the Panthers... They are playing as well as anyone now....

134
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Scott Crowder (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 4:32am

Seattle may have won ugly the past two weeks, but they gave up no sacks to TB today. NO only beat TB by 2. The Jets beat TB by 1. Seattle won by 3. And the Rams? Last year the Niners couldn't beat St. Louis but they still went to the Super Bowl. Seattle DID beat the Rams last week, despite their oline woes. Okung and Breno are coming back soon as is Harvin. I remember a certain Niner team beating NE in Foxboro only to get pasted royally in Seattle. I also remember a certain Niner team beating Green Bay only to get pasted again in Seattle so badly they were still reeling the next week.

Seattle sits atop the NFC. Until someone knocks them off, they're the favorites.

108
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:07pm

And now Kubiak's down.... Whether in pads or not a very risky business... Hope he's OK.

110
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:13pm

Talking but in pain and eyes closed. Tried to get up but couldn't.... Oh boy....

111
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul R :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:17pm

Hope Kubiak's okay. Could be a stroke, could be something much less severe. Don't really buy Wade Philip's statement that he's fine and is just making a "precautionary" trip to the hospital.

113
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul R :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:25pm

..

115
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CoachDave :: Sun, 11/03/2013 - 11:57pm

Then a completely missed H2H hit against DHB in the middle of the field that was a textbook spear.

This crew is easily the worst crew I've seen all year...no other crew is even close.

116
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:01am

Al Michaels seems to think that, if you're down by 12 points, you should take the PAT instead of going for a 2-point conversion, because if you're down by 11, you're within "a TD and a field goal" but if you're down by 12, that's two TDs.

Of course what he's really saying is that you should put off going for the 2-point conversion until later. But he doesn't seem to realize that.

There is an argument for going for the PAT, but it's certainly not the one Al is using.

117
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:01am

the real argument is Houston kicking a FG to make it a 14 pt game... Now it will be 15 and the Colts will have to go for two again...

119
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:03am

and right on cue the Texans are in FG range....

118
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CJS at NYC :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:01am

Why on earth do these guys have such a problem with going for 2 there? "You know you have to go for 2 eventually so why do it here?" What does that even mean?

If even this announcing duo is going to be idiotic, we're in big trouble.

120
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:05am

As indicated above that is not an absolute "go" situation for a 2 pt conversion-- with an entire quarter left to be played. But Michaels blew the reasoning...

122
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CJS at NYC :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:11am

Yes I was wrong. But now a missed figgie & a TD bomb flip the script.

123
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by CJS at NYC :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:11am

Yes I was wrong. But now a missed figgie & a TD bomb flip the script.

121
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul M (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:07am

and of course the FG is missed--- can anybody play this game?? Luck set up to bring them back now....

124
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul R :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:27am

Anybody have Trent Richardson on their fantasy team?

125
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul R :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:31am

"And it's a three-point lead for Indianapolis. Let's go down to Michelle Tafoya for an update on coach Kubiak. Michelle?"
"Al, now it's a heart attack..."

126
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Moridin :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:41am

I loathe the anti-winning.. i mean anti-losing strategy of running out the clock with 3 runs up the middle. Can't they please come up with something less obvious sometimes?

127
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:43am

As impressive as the Texans were in the first half, this 2nd half is such a disappointment.

130
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Ben :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 1:15am

Were the Texans really that impressive in first half? It was more "chuck it in the direction of Andre Johnson". While that admittedly did work out for them in the first half, it doesn't seem like a sound long term offensive scheme.

140
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:06pm

Not just the offense - the defense held the Colts to 3 points and the special teams blocked a FG attempt. On the whole, they were playing with a lot of energy and confidence.

128
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:45am

Maybe the Texans should get a better kicker?

129
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Paul R :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:48am

Smoke from burning Randy Bullock effigies causing airport and traffic delays in greater Houston area.

136
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:40pm

Uh-oh. Aaron Rodgers is out of tonight's game. Word on Twitter is possibly a broken clavicle (collarbone) in his non-throwing shoulder. Alternatives include AC joint sprain (bad) or SC joint sprain (very bad). The Twitter stuff is mostly conjecture, but even the guesses of Jene Bramel and David Chao are usually pretty good.

138
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Perfundle :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:47pm

I have no idea how severe those are for a non-throwing shoulder. What's the prognosis for each of those scenarios?

139
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:03pm

It depends on the severity of the fracture or sprain. If it's a displaced fracture, that could mean surgery and potentially IR. A non-displaced fracture usually means around a month in a sling; he'd potentially be back in about six weeks. SC joint sprain could between two and six weeks depending on severity, or more with complications (subluxation, dislocation). It's been suggested that the least likely injury is an AC joint sprain, which is shorter: probably 2-4 weeks. It's possible to play through a mild AC joint sprain, as Tom Brady did in the playoffs at the end of the 2011 season, but the injury really needs six weeks of rest to heal properly.

[Usual "I'm not a doctor" disclaimer.]

149
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:45pm

He's back on the sideline in a tracksuit. No sling or visible support, which is a good sign.

143
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Steve in WI :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:27pm

That's possibly the only good thing that Shea McClellin has ever done for the Bears.

137
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Guest789 :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:47pm

Packers are now without what most people would consider to be their 3 best players - Rodgers, Matthews, Cobb. Also down to 2 healthy OLBs. What else can go wrong?

-----

“Treat a man as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be, and he will become what he should be.”

141
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:08pm

Seneca Wallace! Josh McCown!

Somewhere, an ESPN executive is drinking heavily.

142
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Guest789 :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:17pm

You spelled "every Packers fan" wrong.

-----

“Treat a man as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be, and he will become what he should be.”

144
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by justanothersteve :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:31pm

Regardless of the outcome of this game, when was the last time the Packers ST outplayed the Bears ST?

150
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:47pm

You're taunting Devin Hester.

145
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Rikki (not verified) :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:32pm

Some of us remember when the Packers where a passing team. Week 8 of 2013

146
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Guest789 :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:37pm

Bears fans, how bad is the Bears run defence this season? In other words, how excited should I get about this utter dominance in Packers running game?

-----

“Treat a man as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be, and he will become what he should be.”

147
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:42pm

It's missing both starting DTs and its best linebacker.

Three weeks ago, Brandon Jacobs ran for 106 yards against it.

Two weeks ago, Washington ran for over 200.

148
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:44pm

"It's missing both starting DTs and its best linebacker."

The same blueprint that the Patriots are using.

151
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:56pm

Except the Bears don't have Tom Brady.

152
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:26am

Topic was rushing defense.

156
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:01am

My point was that Brady is the best defense the Patriots have with Wilfork out.

153
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DA (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:32am

GB will not win a single game without Rodgers. They are looking at probably 5-11 if out the rest of the year

155
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:58am

Just as long as they don't get a shot at Clowney.

160
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:13am

It'll be tough because they let Matt Flynn go, but they still have easy games against the Vikings and Falcons. They can still get 8 wins easily.

162
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by NYMike :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:52am

Well, Flynn just got released, so there is that.

154
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Cythammer (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:45am

So, I guess DVOA will get to continue to grotesquely overrate the Bears.

157
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:03am

Yes because blocked punts and surprise onside kicks are all entirely repeatable statically speaking.

159
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:12am

Ummm, they will get credit for beating a team that typically includes the best QB in football. Instead they played Seneca Wallace. Ain't quite the same.

During the GB-Minn game, Rodgers made plays that no one else makes. Not Peyton, not Brady, not Brees. He made WRs open who were actually blanketed. it was ridiculous. Without him, GB is a shell of itself offensively, especually with Cobb and Finley out. They are basically no Indy post-Manning (pre-Luck).

So yeah, Chicago is going to get a DVOA boost they don't deserve.

161
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by LionInAZ :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:15am

I doubt it.

167
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by AnonymousBoob (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 4:07am

They are going to get credit for holding the Green Bay Packers to 113 yards passing on 21 attempts with an INT and 5 sacks. Unfortunately, DVOA is going to think this was done against the Aaron Rodgers Packers rather than the Seneca Wallace Packers. Big difference.

Rodgers had almost a quarter of the yards Wallace did in almost ten times fewer chances. Neat how that works no?

169
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:29pm

DVOA already thinks the Bear's passing defense is bad, it's the rushing defense propping it up.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

25th against the pass, 9th against he run. It's going to go down this week.

170
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:13pm

You are aware that Rodgers left the game after getting sacked, he didn't just trip.

158
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DA (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:11am

DVOA will continue to radically overrate CHI's Defense which might be a bottom 5 caliber D at the moment

164
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:54am

I'm not sure. The Packers rushed for 8 yards per carry.

165
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by DA (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 2:01am

GB also had a few pretty long runs which DVOA does not penalize as much as a long string of 5 yard carries

168
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:03am

Seems like the Packers had a pretty consistently good running game overall, so your point about the long runs stands but it's not like they had huge runs interspersed with failures. Also, the Bears D allowed plenty of successful passing plays...they just got off the field when it counted and made a couple of big plays (the INT and the sack near the end).

No doubt about it, the Bears defense is bad. If Rodgers is indeed out for a while, the Lions have to be salivating over the fact that the division would be theirs to lose despite the identical 5-3 records. (As a Bears fan, it's a bizarre position to be in that Cutler is apparently likely to come back next week, and that doesn't really affect my optimism for the rest of the season. Small sample size and all, but I think the Bears have shown that thanks largely to the rest of their offense they can do okay with McCown...too bad they're screwed on defense).

166
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by Jon Goldman (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 2:34am

You mean grotesquely overrate the Bears Defense.

The offense is actually pretty good.

163
Re: Week 9 Open Discussion Thread
by NYMike :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:52am

For all of you saying the Packers defense really is bad ... yes, yes it is.