Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Mar 2010

What To Do In Philly?

We're in March already, but the Philadelphia quarterback issue (if there is one) is no closer to being resolved. Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, and Michael Vick all remain in green and white despite reported interest in each of the three quarterbacks.

So my questions today:

- What do you think the actual trade value is of each quarterback?

- What do you think the Eagles will end up doing with the three quarterbacks this season?

- What do you think Philly should do?

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 15 Mar 2010

89 replies , Last at 14 Nov 2010, 8:35am by Anthony Brancato

1
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 1:20pm

What should the Eagles do?
Keep Mcnabb & Kolb, Trade Convict for whatever you can get.

What is the value of the 3 QBs?
Mcnabb: Worth more to the Eagles than any team would be willing to pay
Kolb: Worth more to the Eagles than any team would be willing to pay
Vick: A backup QB/Gimmick/PR distraction

The Eagles are title contenders. Play Mcnabb for the next 2 years, and try and win a Championship, keep Kolb as the QB of the future and replacement for if Mcnabb ( injury history) gets hurt.

If some team like Arizona/Rams were willing to give you a deal you couldn't refuse, then it becomes harder. If the Rams were going to give up pick #1 of Round 2 then it becomes harder, but I doubt they want to try and "rebuild" their roster with an aging Mcnabb.

Michael Vick not only shouldn't be playing professional football, he isn't worth nearly what he or other teams think. He's not exactly who you want leading your team or franchise, and everything I said about that LOSER 5 years ago on this site was true. He's not just a good human being or good football player.

2
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by BucNasty :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 1:28pm

Agree with all of this, with one caveat: the Eagles have a far better idea of how Kolb looks in practice than we do. McNabb is always an injury risk, so if Kolb looks like he can't handle the job then they might want to hang on to Vick. Other than that, trade him for what you can get.

3
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by commissionerleaf :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 1:36pm

Like most NFL personnel decisions, this boils down to how the front office sees the roster. In my opinion, the Eagles aren't getting any younger; they should accept that five years from now, they'll rebuild, try to win a Super Bowl with McNabb, and trade Kolb if the offer is good enough, relying on Vick as the primary backup.

I say this because the Eagles are a team that won't last forever. The offensive line, especially, has been built with McNabb's shelf life in mind; why bother with Kolb if his useful life will be spent looking for a left tackle after Jason Peters retires?

That said, the value of the players is as follows:
McNabb: Probably a first, to the right team. If Brett Favre doesn't come back, Minnesota would be insane not to offer a first. A second is probably more realistic, but probably isn't good value.
Kolb: Should go for a first or a second. He's had flashes of brilliance, and I don't think that anyone believes that Bradford or Clausen is more likely to be a star than Kolb.
Vick: Probably not tradeable. No one knows if he can even play quarterback anymore. He's more valuable to Philadelphia than anyone else because they've seen more of him, know how to use him, and have his respect because they gave him his chance.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 1:49pm

"I don't think that anyone believes that Bradford or Clausen is more likely to be a star than Kolb."

I disagree, I think Jimmy Claussen is more likely to be a star than Kolb. Mike Tanier saw one of the "flashed Brillance" games and said he'd never be more than a backup QB. After the 2nd game with big yardage he started to eat his words, but Jimmy Claussen has more upside IMO. Kolb looks like he can at least be an AJ Feely type player... Strong backup but not really a viable starter, but he can probably be more than that too.

8
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:04pm

What do you see in Jimmy Clausen that makes you think he'll be a successful NFL QB?

15
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Temo :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:48pm

Dude's got a great arm. It was obvious to anyone watching him last year. Everything else, who the hell knows.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:16pm

I'd say he's got an above average arm, not great. Regardless, the arm is the least important factor. There's guys on the beach who can throw a 60 yard spiral and will never get a whiff of their local semi-pro team, let alone the NFL.

I was asking C because he's touted Clausen before, and I disagree, but I haven't seen any detail as to why he thinks Clausen is the real deal. Not that I'm entitled to an answer just because I asked, but I am curious.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 5:12pm

Please show me the post where I said Jimmy Clausen is the real deal?

Besides, 75% of the posters on this site think I don't know anything about QB's so why don't you ask those QB Guru's what they think? I'm just biased remember?

46
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Snack Flag (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 5:34pm

You said the following about five posts up:

"I disagree, I think Jimmy Claussen is more likely to be a star than Kolb. Mike Tanier saw one of the "flashed Brillance" games and said he'd never be more than a backup QB. After the 2nd game with big yardage he started to eat his words, but Jimmy Claussen has more upside IMO."

Then Dean asked why you believe that, since you've given no basis to your opinion. People may think you're wrong, but give it anyway. It's a discussion (though you normally avoid considering any opinion that's not your own). You make the site fun, Chris, because you don't parrot the FO writer;, you're just sometimes awfully aggravating to debate with because you don't answer direct questions and create arguments where there aren't any.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 9:13pm

I said that I think Claussen is more likely to be a STAR.

People are all giddy over Kevin Kolb and his 391 yard performance vs New Orleans last year, but he threw 3 picks in the game, and most of his yards were garbage yards! He played in 3 games last year...

1. A 23 yard 2 sack, 2 fumble game in relief vs Carolina
2. A 3 interception, 2 TD, 391 yard loss to the Saints
3. A 327, 2 TD 0 INT good game vs a horrible Chiefs team.

He got a lot of attention for throwing for 391 yards, but in reality it wasn't a good game and was a 22-48 loss. The game was over by halftime and he threw a lot of garbage yards. 3 interceptions is NOT a good game, granted it was some of his first NFL playing time but Mike Tanier ripped him and said he'd never be good. It was too quick to jump on the " he'll never be good bandwagon" and Mike Tanier had to eat his words the following week. Kolb can probably be an AJ Feely to Joey Harrington type at worst, but maybe better because his 3rd game was pretty good ( granted vs limited competition).

He's 6'3 ( somebody was just saying a 6'3 Brady Quinn is undersized in another thread) but Kolb is only 218 pounds and I wouldn't mind if he put on a little bit more muscle. He played at Houston and was liked by the D-Lew system.

Jimmy Claussen on the other hand was one of the most highly recruited High School players I can ever remember. His brother was a big time college player, and the scouts were following Jimmy since he was in about 8th grade. There was a recruiting war for him by the time he was a Senior in HS and chose ND. He got to play under a former pro coach as a true freshman on a bad team and made the best of it. He made a jump the next season but threw too many picks as a sophomore.

Jimmy's stats his senior season were 3722 yards, 28 TD 4 INT and a 161 rating. He has good fundamentals and should be a top 5 NFL pick.

I wouldn't even THINK about playing Jimmy his 1st year, but he looks like he could maybe one day become a Carson Palmer/Troy Aikman, where as Kolb who knows? Kolb looks like he can at least be a Joey Harrington/AJ Feeley decent backup maybe a starter type, but I'm not sure he will ever be a star player. I didn't see him play at Houston and saw limited pro action. Jimmy has the pedigree and is more likely to be a STAR IMO.

Then again I get called and idiot and people say I'm racist because I said Byron Leftwich and Micheal Vick suck ( forget the fact that I was right). The other day I got called racist because I was saying I'm not sold on Joe Flacco or some white QB? You can't win with this crowd. I just think it's funny all these people call me stupid/racist yet they can be quick to ask me my opinion.

You are darn right I don't parrot the FO party line. Stats can't tell the whole picture and the "advanced stats" in the NFL aren't even close to the sabermetrics guys in baseball despite that attitude around here. There are too many variables. I don't view the DVOA as gospel like many here, I view it as a tool to look at.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by HostileGospel :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 9:52pm

A decent analysis of Clausen can be found here. He managed to post a completion percentage of 68, and average 8.8 YPA- good for 5th and 7th in the FBS, respectively. Of course, Tebow outdid him on both, so maybe those are not the best stats- but considering he was running a pro-style offense, I think it says good things about him. The LCF should be on his nuts pretty hard, right?

--
There's a place I want to be. It's the NovaCare Center. That's in Philadelphia. One NovaCare Way, where the Eagles practice and then they eat cafeteria food and they watch film and we eat and we have fun.

-Donovan McNabb

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Alex51 :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 2:57am

The LCF should be on his nuts pretty hard, right?

Not necessarily. During his career, Clausen had 34 starts, and completed 62.6% of his passes. That's good, but not overwhelmingly spectacular. I'd expect the LCF to like him, and he'd be well worth a first/second round pick, but I don't think he's going to have an insane projection.

I think the LCF will be a bit more enamored with Tim Tebow, who started 41 games, and completed 66.4% of his passes. Or maybe Colt McCoy, who started 53 games, and completed 70.3% of his passes. Those are the kind of stats that the LCF drools over. Of course, they might not even be drafted in the first two rounds, so who knows?

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:35am

Oh and I said Jimmy's Senior season but I meant True Junior Season.

Jimmy's completion percentage might "only" be 62.6%, but that gets lowered because he played as a true freshman with a bad... horribly bad team. If anything it shows how good Brady Quinn was in college because the team fell apart when he left. Meanwhile Jamarcus Russell leaves LSU and the team gets over the hump without him.

I remember even ESPN or the NFLN had something on Jimmy Claussen when he was in high school. How often and how much press do high school players get? They were saying he was the best high school prospect ever and showing him off at some QB camp? In college he got to play early and progressed the way you'd want to see a guy progress.

I would have liked for Claussen to stay in college one more year but with that coaching turnover and his draft projections I can't blame him for coming out as a Junior. If he goes to St. Louis or the Washington Redskins I'd say they MUST sit him for 1 year, but I think he can be a very good player coached under Mike & Kyle Shannahan in that WCO they will run.

Kolb has started 2 games... 1 bad game with run up stats, 1 good game vs a bad team. He's probably at least a backup QB, maybe a decent starter, but I'd say saying that he has star power based off of 2 games is a bit jumping the gun.

72
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Joe T. :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 9:39am

If the Skins draft him, I will have the Jimmy Clausen Blues.

O-Line dammit!

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:41am

There was a time when I viewed Walterfootball as the best NFL draft site on the web. Lately, though? He seems like he's more interested in grinding an axe then anything else. He seems more interested in insults than insights.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:38am

I was referring to a thread about a month ago where I was discussing this with someone. If it was someone else, my bad.

67
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:39am

Duplicate post deleted.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Temo :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 9:11pm

I understand Dean, and I'm saying he's got a great arm is all. That's all I see in him, and that's all I'll ever see in any college QB. I've given up ever trying to predict the other crap because the other crap just seems so random to me.

16
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Snack Flag (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:52pm

Why is Jason Peters retiring soon? He's 28.

21
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Harris :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:05pm

The Eagles have exactly two players on offense 30 or older: McNabb and Kevin Curtis and I'll be gobsmacked if Curtis is on the opening day roster. Of the top skill position players, Celek is the grand old man with four years of experience. They need to address a question at C and/or RG depending on Stacy Andrews and Herremens has never been more than pretty good at LG, but the offense is set for several years. The problems with this team are on defense.

ETA: Whoops. Forgot about Vick.

Hail Hydra!

5
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by JasonK :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 1:47pm

To me the question is about Kolb. Trading McNabb would be putting the team's otherwise-reasonable chances of a championship in 2010 in serious jeopardy, so they would rightly demand a very high (read: prohibitive) premium for that. Kolb, though, is also entering the last year in his contract (assuming a CBA renegotiation/extension that restores full FA rights to 4-year vets), so unless they seriously believe that they can sign him to an extension, his value to Philly is equivalent to 1 season of above-average performance at backup QB. With McNabb's injury history, that's a nice thing to have, but a strong offer from a team willing to start Kolb now and pay him a lowish starter's salary beefed up with performance incentives (Seattle?) could be tempting. (I'd say a 2nd + a 3rd or 4th.)

So, besides knowing how Kolb looks in practice, the Eagles also probably have an idea of how angry he is with management.

9
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:09pm

The fact that Kolb is in the last year of his contract is very misleading.

After this year, if he does not have an extention, he is an exclusive rights free agent. The Eagles can tender him, and he's stuck. A year from now, he's still a restricted free agent. They can tender him as high as a first and third. It would be 3 years from now before the Eagles would have to franchise him or let him be a UFA.

Barring any major changes to that portion of the CBA, they have three years to figure out what they have in Kolb and react accordingly with a trade or a long term deal.

22
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by JasonK :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:05pm

Isn't that only under the 'final league year' provisions in the CBA? Under the rules that have been in effect for the decade leading up to 2010, ERFAs are players who have expired contracts and less than 3 accrued seasons, and RFAs are players who have expired contracts and exactly 3 accrued seasons. Kolb already has 3 accrued seasons (an accrued season is 6+ games on the active or inactive roster, or on IR), and will have 4 after 2010.

There is a lot that is up for negotiation in the new CBA, but I suspect that unrestricted free agency for 4-year vets with expired contracts is not likely to be changed. The Final League Year stuff that kicked in this season was intended to be punitive, to encourage early re-negotiation, and seems unlikely to be included as an every-year provision in a new CBA.

Now, if there isn't an agreement on new CBA before 2011, the Eagles probably can hang onto Kolb a bit longer. But the likelihood of a lockout in that case muddles the water on the value in doing so considerably.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by tuluse :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 2:15am

I thought it was 4 seasons (which he'll still have in all likelihood).

4
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 1:45pm

Oh and one more thing on conVICK.

The Eagles reportedly want a 2nd rounder for him?
That's wildly optimistic in my opinion. A year ago every NFL team had a chance to pick him up for free, but now they are going to dish out a valued 2nd round pick? What's changed in 1 year? Vick didn't play well last year ( that didn't push up his value), he's 1 year removed from the PR nightmore ( that should help his value out), and he was about 15 pounds overweight last year. So if Vick is known for being a lazy player, and was 15 pounds overweight in his "second chance" at playing NFL QB... and he was a running/Wildcat QB, then what makes you think the Leopard changed his stripes and will now work hard to be that team leader/NFL QB? If anything you'd expect him to work his aZZ off last year in an effort to win a contract but we didn't see that. I remember when the Eagles hired him some people were drafting him in FF and thinking big things can happen. Vick was a gimmeck last year and didn't do much. He'd take a couple snaps a game and rush for 5 yards. Nothing Desean Jackson couldn't do as a wildcat QB.

What teams would consider Vick?
Teams with bad or unsettled QB situations or nutcase owners.
Buffalo, St. Louis, Raiders, Redskins, Carolina. Now two of these teams will probably end up drafting Jimmy Clausen & Sam Bradford to "fix" their situations. Vick said he'd like to play in Carolina to push for that job but it looks like it might not happen. I doubt any of these teams would give up anything more than a 4th rounder, but in reality a 5th rounder because again, they could have signed him for free last year. Playing in Philly ( a hard city) as a backup was smart for Vick, if he would have played elsewhere he would have probably received more of a backlash.

Arizona could use a QB but bringing in a running QB would certainly waste the talent they have at WR. Mcnabb would make sense there but do you want to rent him for a couple years and give up on the 1st round pick Leinart?

Also, if the Eagles want to trade Kolb, it is an adverse selection problem. The reason why they would want to trade him is because they have the most information on him and they don't believe in him. In reality the best way to get value for him would be waiting until another team came to THEM.

I think NFL teams aren't stupid, and they know the the Eagles are looking to deal one of these guys, which pushes the price tag down. The 1st for Mcnabb, 1st/2nd for Kolb, 2nd for Vick seems to be them setting the price high, but realistically knowing the true price tag would probably be one or more rounds lower for each guy.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Harris :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:12pm

And if the Eagles really cared about trading him, you'd have a point. As it is, they've got a 2nd/3rd string QB for a relatively reasonable price who is capable of contributing. They don't need a developmental QB who'll just take up space on the team charter because they've already groomed the next franchise QB (as they seem Kolb, anyway). Vick is more valuable than anybody they're likely to get with low-round pick, so they might as well hang on to him unless and until somebody meets their price.

Hail Hydra!

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:26pm

If an NFL teams gives up a 2nd round pick for Vick then I'll eat my words but I really don't see it happening. Remember, the other 31 teams didn't want to pick him up for free, but now they are going to give up a 2nd rounder? I don't even see anybody giving up a 3rd rounder.

Mayyyyybe some team reaches and gives up a 4th, but in reality it's more likely to be a 5th round pick or later, and like you said, does Philly want to get rid of Vick for a 5th or 6th rounder?

Who wants to give up a 2nd rounder and hand the keys to their franchise to a lazy criminal who isn't that good of a football player?

32
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Kevin from Philly :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:49pm

A lot of teams didn't consider Vick because of the potential fan reaction. Since then, there's been little significant protest, so other teams might reconsider their position. I agree that it's unlikely someone gives up a 2nd rounder, but they have to set a price somewhere - why not way too high? Hell, a team that's desperate enough just might go crazy (cough, Al Davis, cough..) and they could always settle for a 3rd or 4th if that's all they can get. Worst case, I heard one of the guys on NFLN say that, if they keep Vick next year and someone signs him as a FA, the birds would get a compensitory 3rd the following year.

40
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:20pm

That was debunked eventually. He's in the salary range where a cursory glance would indicate he could be 3rd round compensation, but playing time and performace also enter into the equation (which has never been published, but there's a blog out there where someone has figured it out - sadly, I can't provide the link).

Anyway, I don't see a 3rd rounder in compensation, and even if it was true, that'd be a 4th rounder via present value discounting.

Having said that, I agree with C - a 5th is what I'd expect, and if I were the Eagles I'd consider that highway robbery along the lines of fetching a 2nd for Feely 5 years ago.

56
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Noah of Arkadia :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 11:24pm

If the Eagles got more than a 5th for Vick, whoever did it would be the biggest foos ever. A 5th is probably too high. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Vick was flat out released at some point.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 12:30am

Releasing him would be idiotic. His salary isn't crazy-high this year, and it's an uncapped year anyway. If they can't find a trade partner for him, they might as well just hold onto him. $6M isn't too much to pay for a gimmick player who probably would be one of the top backup QBs in the league.

69
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:43am

If a starting linebacker isn't worth $5 million, why is a third string QB?

77
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 1:29pm

What starting linebacker did they decide wasn't worth $5M?

None. They decided a backup linebacker wasn't worth $5M. Witherspoon wasn't a clear starter anywhere, and with Bradley and possibly Gaither returning this year, Witherspoon very likely would've ended up on the bench. Plus, the fact that Witherspoon kept getting shuffled around should tell you they didn't think that highly of him, either.

Besides, I'd be fine with paying a backup QB more than a starting linebacker. What's the big deal? You lose the starting linebacker, and it's a small dropoff. You lose a starting QB and it's a huge dropoff, and spending money to minimize that's just not a big deal.

7
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:03pm

- What do you think the actual trade value is of each quarterback?

McNabb/Kolb – doesn’t matter. They’re not on the block.

dogkiller – I’m guessing a 5th round pick.

- What do you think the Eagles will end up doing with the three quarterbacks this season?

Keep McNabb/Kolb, and trade the dogkiller.

- What do you think Philly should do?

Make the Ernest Jackson trade. Trade him for a beer, and it doesn’t even have to be cold.

10
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by IAmJoe (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:13pm

I was genuinely surprised that the Broncos got Quinn and didn't land one of PHI's two QBs. I think a first round pick is probably a bit too high of a price for McNabb, but as previously mentioned, Minnesota's first might work, being in the bottom of the round. It would certainly be worth it to MIN - whether PHI feels its worth closing their championship window for a year or two is up to them. Given that this season is uncapped, and the next season is likely to be a lockout, I wouldn't be surprised if PHI just said to hell with it, and went for broke after a title this year. McNabb won't be able to lead this team to a championship after a lockout, and Kolb is not a sure thing, nor is he likely to be particularly happy with PHI management for keeping him on the bench for 4-5 years. Because of this, I would think Kolb is the more likely candidate to be traded.

But for what value? I don't think he's worth a first, and maybe not even a high second - he hasn't really shown anything more than Bradford/Clausen have. To me, a mid to late second is probably just about right, with a conditional pick or something thrown in. Of course, that puts PHI in the position of not having a legit backup for McNabb, and they will definitely need a backup for him at some point in the season when he inevitably gets hurt. Is it worth it to get a 2nd rounder at the risk of torpedoing your season, a la Tony Romo/Brad Johnson a couple years ago? Especially when that rookie you get for that 2nd round pick isn't going to get a sophomore season? I don't know, but I could see them holding on to both QBs.

As for Vick, if you can trade him to someone for a mid-round pick, 3-5 or so, you do it. He's useless - if you can get some other GM to go "Oooh, shiny" then you take his money and run, laughing all the way.

The scenario I was actually anticipating was that Brandon Marshall would eventually be traded to SEA for a 2nd + a lower pick, and then DEN would swap the second and maybe a throw-in to PHI for either of McNabb/Kolb.

14
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:46pm

" think a first round pick is probably a bit too high of a price for McNabb"

Which is part of why McNabb won't go anywhere. Others may not be willing to pay a 1st round pick, but to actually get Reid to part with him would most likely take that and more.

11
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by bingo762 :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:17pm

- What do you think the actual trade value is of each quarterback?
McNabb- 1st&3rd
Kolb-2nd&4th
Vick-4th

- What do you think the Eagles will end up doing with the three quarterbacks this season?
Keep them. They won't get their worth in a trade

- What do you think Philly should do?
Trade McNabb & Vick if they'll get their asking price. If not, I'll see you all back here answering the same question minus Vick

12
Re: What To Do In Philly?
by the cat in the box is dead (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:23pm

This might end up being more of 'what WILL the Eagles do', but here's my take.

What are the Eagles looking to achieve?

First off, they will want to have at least two starting-calibre players at QB when week 1 rolls around. The Mike McMahon experience taught them that, as well as the answer to the question 'just how much can an NFL QB suck?'

So, if one guy goes, the other two stay.

They will also want to build for the future. They haven't ever been a 'win-now, mortgage the future' team. That won't change any time soon. I guess you could argue it should, but I don't think it will. I would therefore say Kolb stays, unless they think that he isn't actually the answer.

They also want to get market value for their guys. I would imagine they've set a price in terms of picks and won't go below it. Andy Reid is very patient like that.

The final point is that other teams' needs haven't firmed up yet.

At the moment, QB-hungry teams will still be holding out hope for the draft. If you trade for McNabb or Vick now, that makes picking a great prospect who endures an Aaron Rogers-esque fall to you rather difficult. Best, if you're a team in that position, to gauge the market for whichever Eagle player you like and have a trade as Plan B.

Other, unpredictable events might change the landscape. Brett Favre might retire. Alex Smith might snap his ACL. Matt Moore might get caught punching babies in the face on the White House lawn. The guy who drafts Tim Tebow may get a huge case of Buyer's remorse, or at least realise that he needs time to develop behind a vet.

At that point, you get more for your QB.

I guess they know that at some point the market will rise to meet them. I think they should hold onto their assetts until some other team gets desperate and overpays.

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Re: What To Do In Philly?
by zip.4chan.org/sp/ (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 5:18pm

The final point is that other teams' needs haven't firmed up yet. At the moment, QB-hungry teams will still be holding out hope for the draft. If you trade for McNabb or Vick now, that makes picking a great prospect who endures an Aaron Rogers-esque fall to you rather difficult. Best, if you're a team in that position, to gauge the market for whichever Eagle player you like and have a trade as Plan B.

I think this is spot on. In game theory, this would be a commitment problem. Neither side is going to be willing to commit first until they absolutely have to. The Eagles don't want to appear desperate to unload any of their 3 quarterbacks (even though everyone knows they want to get rid of at least one) because it will lower the potential value they can get out of a trade. Other teams that are searching for a QB situation aren't going to want to settle just yet--they don't want to get ripped off by Philly, and they want to see what other options exist in terms of the draft. They're only going to start to get antsy by the time the regular season is fast approaching and they need to pull the trigger on a starting QB.

The most likely scenario for Philly is to wait until August, see who comes calling, and take the best offer, whatever it happens to be.

There are pros and cons of keeping any of the 3 QBs:

  • McNabb: almost guaranteed a playoff spot, barring major injury; but, it's unclear that he will win the Superb Owl after 11 years of being close but never quite getting over the hump.
  • Kolb: QB of the future, played really well in his two starts last season, unclear whether he can keep that level of production up over a whole season.
  • Vick: God knows the Eagles love versatile players, and Vick is versatile. They really failed to find a good role for him last year, and it's pretty obvious he won't be content with the same role again this coming season. If they don't manage to unload him, they'll need to throw him in the mix more often, playing him mostly as a back and not just a gimmick QB.
  • 73
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 10:06am

    I think august might be too late. Wouldn't teams want them in for OTA's? Give them the summer to digest the playbook. I don't think anything gets done until the draft or a little bit afterwards. If not then, then nothing is gonna happen.

    81
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by the cat in the box is dead (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 5:30pm

    I think that the post-draft scramble is likely, though I would imagine that after OTAs truly desperate teams might be biting if there was an Eagles QB up for trade. Kelly Holcomb got traded to the Vikings in mid-august a while back.

    I can imagine coaches seeing they have a mess at the position and pulling the trigger on a ridiculous trade to save their jobs. It wouldn't work, of course, and would really suck for the player- I can't see Reid doing that to McNabb, so it'd be Vick that went at that point.

    13
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:27pm

    Why do people think if McNabb goes the Eagles championship window closes? He's been here ELEVEN YEARS. I don't recall seeing him riding a float down Broad Street. What did the Eagles in last year was inconsitency of the O-Line and defense. Also, they were one of the most injured teams in football last year. The former can be addressed with draft picks and the latter hopefully takes care of itself.

    17
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by KarlFA :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:54pm

    Seriously, I'm tired of this BS from Philly fans. Get a clue. Your team has been in the playoffs every year for a damn decade and in the NFC championship half the time. That is close to winning a superbowl. Do you remember what the Iggles were doing before McNabb's arrival? That's right, they sucked. And got a top 5 pick, which they then used to draft McNabb. Shut your stinking whining up - your city sucks and the Iggles are one of only two things going for it (primo H being the other).

    Besides, the last parade down Broad ended up with...wait for it...Looting. That's not the best part. The best part? Philly hooligans looted a luggage store. Really, it doesn't get any better than that.

    Here's to hopes that you guys don't see another damn parade in any sport for another 25 years. With all that being said, I hope the Eagles do trade McNabb. To San Francisco (why aren't they more actively trying to get a real starting qb!!?!?! Alex Smith is garbage, they have two first rounders, and that team is a Qb and and olineman or two away from being the tits of the NFC! ugh). And they promptly win a superbowl while all the Philly jerkoffs are stuck holding their di--s with that "oh, really?" look on their faces.

    Karl, Miami

    20
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:05pm

    Settle down, internet tough guy. I'm actually neither here not there on McNabb. If we keep him, fine. If not, also fine. We've been very successful with him but I'm not delusional in thinking our only hope for a title rests with him. If we can upgrade more glaring holes at his expense, so be it. That was my point.

    Yeah, 20 or so people looting a luggage store(who does that?) represents a city of millions. Your argument makes sense. Nothing crazy happenes anywhere else.

    23
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by JasonK :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:06pm

    Hey, if there was looting going on in my town, I'd want some nice bags to pack my things in and leave!

    26
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:18pm

    This, on the other hand, is Philly Pride to the fullest

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bZk7BIdCns

    39
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Kevin from Philly :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:17pm

    Hey, as the Japanese say, the nail that sticks up gets pounded down. And that dude got POUNDED.

    48
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by IanB (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 7:47pm

    Maybe one of these guys could play quarterback? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2isksLw0jW8

    25
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:14pm

    Why not San Fran?

    Because their rock head head coach wants the team molded after himself and is intent on winning football games 13-9 and playing the most boring and predictable style offense in the league.

    Mcnabb has an off-season home in Glendale Arizona and happens to live a few houses down from Ken Whisenhunt. If things went his way, he would be traded to Arizona for a Late(r) 1st round pick, or next years 1 and he would be chucking passes to Larry Fitzgeralnd, Steve Breston and Early Doucet. The Cardinals would most likely win the NFCWest giving them at least 1 home playoff game. Then he wouldn't have to deal with the idiot fans in Filth adelphia and might get appreciated for once but Warner would be a tough act to follow so you never know.

    47
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by commissionerleaf :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 7:29pm

    McNabb to Arizona would essentially rock, but sans Rolle/Dansby I don't see the AZ defense getting them a clean run to the playoffs with Leinart (or even McNabb). If Warner came back, sure, but McNabb is only about 90% that good.

    37
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Kevin from Philly :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:14pm

    Check your facts, dope. There was no looting at the Phillies parade. The night they won, there was one store broken into - by a bunch of drunken college kids from the suburbs, half of whom weren't even from the area. Hard to figure out what the "FA" stands for in your user name.

    Edit: I just saw why you're pissed at the Phillies - Miami, huh? Well, put away your cow bells. They'll come in handy when the Marlins or the Rays get good again in 7 or 8 years.

    41
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:21pm

    You're all class.

    Next time you start throwing stones, remember all the looting that happened during Hurricane Andrew.

    60
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by DavidL :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 1:35am

    I'm going to choose to believe that the H stands for hoagies.

    18
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by MJK :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 2:59pm

    McNabb has posted a positive DVOA for the last six years that he has played. There are only three other QB's in the league that can say that, and each of them has at least one ring (PManning, Brady, and Brees).

    Now, granted, he hasn't been as good as those three, but to be one of the four most consistently above-average QB's in the league is saying something. Unless you think he's going to physically decline (and he's not that old), you have to think he gives you a better shot at a championship than Kolb or Vick would.

    19
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Snack Flag (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:02pm

    McNabb has pretty much shouldered the offensive load for one of the most consistently good teams of the last decade. Though he doesn't have a ring, he's proven himself to be an excellent qb throughout his career.

    The idea that replacing McNabb with Kolb is the championship answer for the Eagles in 2010 is, to me, absurd. Their offense, especially now that Westbrook is gone, is almost completely dependent on an effective passing game. McNabb has his faults, but I'd rather hitch my wagon to him for one more year and have his contract run out than say, "Maybe Kolb will be marginally better."

    27
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:21pm

    I think a lot of it depends on how good the Eagles think Kolb is.

    When the Chargers let Drew Brees walk after an MVP type season ( but an injury), it could have looked like a very very dumb thing if Rivers hadn't turned out how he turned out. He only had limited play so the Chargers had to trust their internal people.

    Brees still has a ring, and a few MVP type seasons and is better than Rivers so you could still say it was a dumb move, but Rivers turned out about as good as he could turn out and is younger and you couldn't keep both guys.

    One thing that always gets me is fans say... " We've never really seen this guy play, so who knows how good he is?" That's because fans don't go to practice, but teams have their internal scouts/coaches that do give them an idea how good somebody is. If the Eagles really like Kolb, they can get rid of Mcnabb. It would be compareable to letting Drew Brees go for Phillip Rivers and Rivers isn't even really as good as Brees but nobody is bashing AJ Smith for that one. If Kolb is even almost as good as Mcnabb, or worse and brings a championship then Mcnabb will be a distant memory.

    29
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Snack Flag (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:33pm

    The Chargers also invested the number 4 pick and a lot of money in Rivers. They had to let Brees go because they would never be able to get that value back in a trade. I agree that we would view the situation differently now if Rivers fell on his face, but I don't see how the Philly situation is much similar. If Kolb doesn't work out, all they've lost is a late second round pick, which happens quite often.

    50
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by HostileGospel :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 8:48pm

    Minor nitpick: Kolb was the 4th pick of the 2nd round (36th overall), which originally belonged to Cleveland. He was the Eagles' first pick of that draft, as they traded their 1st to Dallas.

    --
    There's a place I want to be. It's the NovaCare Center. That's in Philadelphia. One NovaCare Way, where the Eagles practice and then they eat cafeteria food and they watch film and we eat and we have fun.

    -Donovan McNabb

    30
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by dk240t :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:38pm

    1. I don't think Vick is worth very much. A 6th round pick maybe? This is a guy who was available for nothing last year and didn't really light it up this year. I don't see why anybody would give up more than a 6th for what they could have got for no picks last year. Maybe he ends up going for what Sage Rosenfels was worth (4th round pick), considering the baggage and that he was freely available last year.

    2. Kolb is worth roughly what Schaub was worth. 2x2nd round picks (in consecutive years, so basically a 2nd+3rd in this draft)+some change, like swapping up a few spots in the first round and some changes in later rounds. I think that the Eagles think Kolb is the QB of the future and so they value him higher and won't give him up for that and so he won't be traded.

    3. McNabb - the market for high level QBs with a few years left is so small, it is really impossible to determine. If someone wants him bad enough, he's worth a first round pick (like Richard Seymour was to the Raiders). I don't think the Eagles will be willing to part with him for a 3rd or less, and may not be willing to part without a 1st round pick.

    In other words, unless McNabb goes to the Raiders or goes to Minnesota if Favre decides to claim retirement in time to make a trade, I don't see him going anywhere. I don't think anybody is going to pay the Eagles what they think any of these guys are worth, except maybe take Vick off their hands for a late pick.

    They may even get a 3rd-5th in the 2011 draft after the 2010 draft is over for Vick, but I think that is a best case scenario.

    45
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by C (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 5:19pm

    I think the Kolb situation is worth bringing up but it's not the same.

    Matt Schaub was a pretty solid 1st round pick before getting injured at UVA. The injury shot his value down, he was a 3rd round pick if I remember, looked VERY good in preseason each year, and outplayed Michael Vick in the limited time he had. He looked part of the 1st round prospect that recouped from injury part and came back.

    Schaub is smart, has the size, decent but unspectacular arm. I think as an NFL player he's about a solid "B" QB right now, but under the QB friendly Houston system he has "A" statistics. If you just looked at his number he'd probably be overrated, but I like Schaub and was touting him for fantasy football for a couple years... but he was again hurt last year ( injury problem?).

    Kolb had good stats for the Lewin system, but isn't physically what you want to see, and doesn't come off as smart ( or quietly arrogant) as Schaub. In his limited action he put up good yards etc., but also made some mistakes against NO if I remember correctly, and did pick up some garbage yards.

    I don't think Kolb was ever a 1st round prospect ( due to size, arm, the college he went to, and other factors) for what it's worth, and I don't think he'd command what Schaub did in a trade.

    I'd say some team might be willing to give up a 2nd rounder, but more likely a 3rd, but would the Eagles want to trade him for a 2nd or 3rd? Probably not due to him being a few years into the system and having more rapport with the Eagles skilled position players.

    31
    Who's the back-up?
    by staubach (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:45pm

    Philly can't trade Kolb or McNabb right now because they need a quality back-up quarterback (and Vick doesn't count because he really hasn't played quarterback for them, just a "specialty" position). When the Rams picked up AJ Feely, I thought this might be the precursor to a trade involving a QB swap, but it hasn't happened yet. I don't think Philly will trade either quarterback unless they are certain that they can pick up a quality back-up that knows their system (like Feely or J. Garcia, or maybe Tavaris Jackson).

    42
    Re: Who's the back-up?
    by Dean :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:24pm

    The feeling in St. Louis is that Feeley will be Doug Peterson to Sam Bradford.

    58
    Re: Who's the back-up?
    by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 12:37am

    Vick played the latter half of the Atlanta game as the standard QB.

    I think people here vastly underestimate Philly's confidence in Vick as a backup QB on their own team - they see him running the offense all the time during practice. If they didn't think he was a viable backup, they would've abandoned the Michael Vick Experiment a long time ago.

    33
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Sophandros :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 3:55pm

    Wait. We're talking about this guy?

    http://media.photobucket.com/image/mcnabb%20air%20guitar/snesfreak/neoga...

    -------------
    Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

    34
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:02pm
    35
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Still Alive (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:08pm

    What do you think the actual trade value is of each quarterback?

    I am in no position to say. Ask people who work in the NFL.

    What do you think the Eagles will end up doing with the three quarterbacks this season?

    I am in no position to say. Ask people who work in the NFL.

    What do you think Philly should do?

    Whatever Andy Reid thinks they should do.

    36
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by mjb :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 4:12pm

    It is not an if for when the Eagles trade Vick...but a when. It will likely be for conditional draft picks in 2011 or 2012.

    49
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by VarlosZ :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 8:21pm

    What to do in Philly? Turn around and get back on the freeway, if at all possible.

    51
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by SuperFly20 (not verified) :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 9:02pm

    Kolb is definitely the QB of the future and will start in 2011. They traded a little out of the first round with Dallas no less to get him and he played really well in his 2 starts last season. They aren't trading him for anything.

    Vick and McNabb won't be around in 2011, they will leave for an opportunity to start somewhere else. Due to compensatory picks and seeing how much Delhomme got, both will should get close to the top compensation, a third. The Eagles won't trade either this coming season for less. Now the third round pick is at the bottom of it and a team drafting at the top of the third like the Rams is really a whole draft rounder higher.

    54
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by HostileGospel :: Mon, 03/15/2010 - 9:24pm

    A few assumptions:

    a) there will be an initial dropoff from McNabb to Kolb, even if you expect Kolb to be as good as McNabb in the span of a few years.
    b) if the Eagles are going to contend for the Super Bowl this year, McNabb is their best option.
    c) if the Eagles are not going to legitimately contend for the Super Bowl this year, getting the best value for McNabb and letting Kolb get familiar with the starting role is the way to go.

    Rough worth estimate:

    McNabb: 2nd-3rd rounder
    Kolb: 1st, high 2nd
    Vick: whatever someone will pay, really

    Vick doesn't matter, except that if he's are gone you need one more QB than you would otherwise. His ceiling is probably a fourth, and that's only from Al Davis. But they don't have to get rid of him, so leave him alone until some team loses a QB in the preseason and comes knocking.

    I think, assuming FA and the draft go reasonably well, that the Eagles are perfectly able to win a Super Bowl this year (they won't, but what the hell). At the same time, they're not loaded with talent in an odds-on-favorite way either, and if I weren't an Eagles fan, I'd say sell McNabb high (2nd rounder, maybe a 4th too depending on how high that 2nd is). No way you get a first rounder for him, that's just crazy. He's been very good, but if he plays four more above-average years (starting 10+ games per season) I will be flabbergasted.

    However, I'm an Eagles fan, and a McNabb fan, and I say keep all the QB's and win a fucking Super Bowl this year with 5 at the helm. This is the best option, and I will brook no disagreement.

    I get the impression that the Eagles care more about getting the best value than whatever assets they would get in return, and they're content to wait for a deal they like, which includes standing pat if no one wows them. I can't imagine Kolb is actually on the table, but the Eagles are full of surprises.

    I'd also like to take the opportunity to point out that Andy Reid is one of only two coaches to win 100 games and appear in 5 conference championship games in the past decade. Yeah, no Lombardi Trophies in there- but shit, if that doesn't qualify as "excellence," I don't know what does. We love to make fun of his press conferences and complain about his clock management, but he and 5 are the best damn thing that ever happened to the Eagles, and anyone who doesn't believe that can go shit in their hat.

    --
    There's a place I want to be. It's the NovaCare Center. That's in Philadelphia. One NovaCare Way, where the Eagles practice and then they eat cafeteria food and they watch film and we eat and we have fun.

    -Donovan McNabb

    59
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 12:42am

    At the same time, they're not loaded with talent in an odds-on-favorite way either

    Thank God. The last team loaded with talent in an odds-on-favorite way to win the Super Bowl lost their starting QB in week one and missed the playoffs.

    63
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Mr Shush :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 7:26am

    Yeah, as a non-Eagles fan I agree with the rational, non-fan part of your brain. McNabb has been a very good player, but he turns 34 this year and at this point is above average but not much more. I don't think it's a given that he'll be better than Kolb in 2010, and I think 2010 is the last year in which I would back McNabb to be the better of the two at even money. This is partly because I am quite high on Kolb, but I do also think that the recent freakish late-career play of Warner and Favre and the total refusal to show any signs of ageing of Peyton have led people to forget that quarterbacks, even very good ones, usually start to decline significantly by the time they reach their mid 30s.

    Being able to survive an injury to your starting quarterback without much drop-off is nice, but it's a luxury and clearly not worth a first or second round pick who could be a major contributor for years. Trade Vick for whatever you can get, trade McNabb while he still has value, find out what you've got in Kolb before you have to extend him.

    NB. Almost none of this applies if the Eagles coaching staff don't actually think Kolb's any good. I don't see any reason to believe that's the case, however.

    70
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by C (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:44am

    NFL fans are too quick to pull the trigger on (older) QB's.

    Remember when Jim Kelly ( who reminds me a tiny bit about Mcnabb) was near the end of his career... People were so quick to say " start the Rob Johnson era... He has all the physical tools, looks good in practice yadda yadda yadda?

    How about the Jay Fiedler Era after Marino
    To a lesser extent Marc Bulger after Kurt Warner

    Yes, sometimes you strike gold with somebody like Steve Young after Joe Montana or Aaron Rodgers after Brett Favre but pushing a hall of famer or border line hall of famer out because they are "old" or "past their prime" is a risky thing. I know everybody is sick of the whole Brett Favre saga, but in 5 years he will be retired, and you will be sitting there on your couch one Sunday saying man... I wish I could still watch HIM play.

    Mcnabb is a known quantity. You know that if he plays and is healthy enough to start 13 games your team SHOULD make the playoffs and be in the mix. On the other hand, Kevin Kolb might be the 2nd coming of Joey Harrington or AJ Feeley and your just might go 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 with him. Then in about 3 years the Eagles fans will look back on the Mcnabb era and wonder why they dumped him for what might be AJ Feeley, and they will wonder what would have happened in 2010 or 2011 with a team led by Mcnabb.

    The Andy Reid era and Donovan Mcnabb era have been tied at the hip.

    74
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 10:10am

    Or not. Kolb could be the next Joey Harrington(as you keep saying) or he could be a decent pro. Nobody knows. Nobody is gonna know until he plays. The only people who have an inkling about his potential are Andy Reid and Eagles management and they seem to like him so that's good enough for me.

    78
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by C (not verified) :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 3:51pm

    Right.

    And you have a known commodity that you know is good (Mcnabb), and you have a guy that could be Joey Harrington or could be a starting NFL QB. The conventional wisdom says that Kolb should have to be as nearly as good as Mcnabb for it to be worth it, and the odds say that Kolb won't be nearly as good as Mcnabb.

    Jim Kelly was getting old, and then there was this tall, strong armed shiney red sports car named Rob Johnson that a lot of people were all to eager to see play. Just give him a chance... "He's the future".

    The point being that the grass is always greener on the other side. The odds of Kevin Kolb having a career 3/4 as successful as #5 are slim. The odds of Kevin Kolb winning a SB are slim. People here are getting REALLY excited about a guy with 2 career starts.

    79
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Alex51 :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 4:16pm

    The conventional wisdom says that Kolb should have to be as nearly as good as Mcnabb for it to be worth it, and the odds say that Kolb won't be nearly as good as Mcnabb.

    What odds are you talking about? I mean, yeah, Kolb has some big shoes to fill, but I don't think it's fair to compare him to Joey Harrington or Rob Johnson. Kolb had 50 college starts, and completed 61.6% of his passes. That's closer to Chad Pennington or Philip Rivers than anything else, and it's lightyears ahead of Joey Harrington. Find me a QB with 50+ college starts, a 60%+ completion%, and that was drafted in the first two rounds, that didn't become a very good QB. Because if you can't, then I'd say the odds of Kolb working out aren't that bad.

    82
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by tuluse :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:40pm

    Tim Couch?

    83
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Mr Shush :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:57pm

    Couch had a good completion percentage, but not a whole lot of starts - two seasons' worth, so presumably around 24. That's a very far cry from 50, in LCF terms.

    84
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by tuluse :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 9:36pm

    I couldn't really remember, I think there were some early spread QBs who meet the criteria who failed.

    85
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Alex51 :: Wed, 03/17/2010 - 5:37am

    I couldn't really remember, I think there were some early spread QBs who meet the criteria who failed.

    Not Andre Ware, not David Klingler. Neither of them even reached 30 starts. Keep looking.

    86
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by C (not verified) :: Wed, 03/17/2010 - 4:31pm

    Alex51

    So let me get this straight, you think the Eagles should go with Kolb over Mcnabb because he started a lot of games in college????

    I'd love to see that press conference... Hey guys, we are dumping Mcnabb, but don't worry, our algorthims say the inexperienced Kolb will be a good NFL QB because he...
    - started a lot of games in college
    - had a good completion percentage in college vs 2nd rate teams
    - NFL scouts liked him enough to give him a 2nd round grading

    Therefore he's going to be good and we can go ahead and dump Donovan Mcnabb who we know is good.

    Look man, it's all a crap shoot and these are very big stakes. It's not about do you believe Kolb will be decent. Even I said he's probably a backup QB at worst... but what if he's Tommy Maddox or Billy Volek? What if you just dumped Donovan Mcnabb on a good team for Derek Anderson? The more you believe in the D-Lew system the more it could end up burning you in the end with the way you are talking. Past performance does not dictate future gains. I think it would be hilarious to see a GM say they were dumping Mcnabb because Kolb had 50 starts at Houston in college.

    87
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Alex51 :: Wed, 03/17/2010 - 7:57pm

    So let me get this straight, you think the Eagles should go with Kolb over Mcnabb because he started a lot of games in college????

    No, I do not think that the Eagles should go with Kolb over McNabb next year. I think McNabb is still an elite QB, and they should keep him as long as he continues to play at a high level. My point was just that Kolb is not a bad gamble or a very risky proposition. While nothing is completely certain, the evidence available says that he's very likely to be a very good QB, and the Eagles shouldn't trade him away.

    And while there is no guarantee that Kolb will be great, there is also no guarantee that McNabb will continue to be great. As you mentioned, past performance does not guarantee future results. And he is getting older, and has always been injury prone. No decision represents guaranteed excellence, so they have to go on the information they have. And the available information says that Kolb is likely to be Philadelphia's next great QB.

    Now, personally, I think McNabb has at least a year or two of elite play left, which is why I think they should keep him, unless some team offers them an absolutely insane deal (multiple first round picks), which nobody is going to do. I just don't see any reason to worry that the team will fall into mediocrity when Kolb takes over a few years from now. Based on the information available, I expect a relatively smooth transition from one elite QB to another.

    80
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 4:17pm

    I think that when that is used as an arguement for Philly to keep 5, then it makes sense.

    But as an arguement to trade Kolb because he probably will not be a Hall of Famer, I think there it comes up short.

    64
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bubqr :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:23am

    Every report say that the Eagles are very high on Kolb (plus Harbaugh, A.Caplan who watches Eagles practice). I do believe that A.Reid statements are just a smokescreen, and that even him knows Kolb will start in 2011, or even in 2010, and that getting something in return for #5 is the way to go.

    71
    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 8:49am

    If Les Bowen reads this site, he sure hasn't absorbed much. However...

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20100316_Les_Bowen__Reading_the_Eagl...

    "Vick remains the most likely of the trio to be dealt, though the Birds are going to have to reconcile themselves to getting something like a fifth-rounder for him. Kolb is very unlikely to be traded"

    Not that Les really knows anything, but it's pretty much the same prediciton I've been making for months.

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    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by bingo762 :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 10:15am

    Kinda off topic but do you think as a reporter Les takes it personal when andy doesn't give anything interesting in press conferences and what not and it therefore effects his objectivity? I'm just saying cause I see the guy on DN Live and read his articles and sometimes it leaves me dumbfounded how he blows the littlest thing out of proportion or infers things that aren't really there. He seems very negative towards a regime that is a perennial super bowl contender. I was wondering if it was just me.

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    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Dean :: Tue, 03/16/2010 - 10:27am

    I don't think he's the worst offender (that would be John Gonzalez), but there are a half-dozen or so people who work for the Inquirer and the Daily News who are all deliberately trying to get Andy Reid fired, even if it means egregious lapses in their own professionalism. Gonzo especially is so biased I feel like I'm watching political news (take your pick between CNN and FOX - they're both horrible).

    The problem is that they're not trying to run him out of town because he's a bad coach, but rather because he's a boring interview.

    It's not just you. The agenda is there and plain as day.

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    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Phil Osopher :: Thu, 03/25/2010 - 8:31pm

    What do you think the actual trade value is of each quarterback?

    McNabb: Low second or early third
    Kolb: 2nd and 4th round picks
    Vick: 6th or 7th round pick

    - What do you think the Eagles will end up doing with the three quarterbacks this season?

    Trading Vick for a 5th and future conditional (3rd to 7th based on playing time and incentives)

    Keep McNabbus and Kolby

    - What do you think Philly should do?

    Trade Vick for anything you can get and consider trading McNabb for second rounder and maybe conditional pick next year based on incentives, if you think Kolb can be a srarting NFL QB. WR's are young and they can grow together.

    Trade Kolb, if you can get a first rounder and keep McNabb and draft another QB this year in second or third round to groom.

    Assumptions:

    McNabb has two quality years left and will go downhill fast after that

    Kolb could be decent NFL starter (at least average)

    Vick should be on losing team to help bring some excitement. He won't do much w/ Philly this year anyway, so they would be wise to trade him for something.

    “You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”
    -Albert Einstein

    "Judge a man by his questions rather than by his answers"
    -Voltaire

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    Re: What To Do In Philly?
    by Anthony Brancato :: Sun, 11/14/2010 - 8:35am

    The Eagles' next two games - both pivotal games within the NFC East - could go a long way toward deciding what they end up doing.

    If the Eagles win them both and Vick is impressive in both, the Eagles' front office may move quickly to see that he stays around long-term, as they have a long history of signing such extensions in the month of November.

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