Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Jul 2010

What happened to HGL?

I remember reading an extra point during the season that hinted at a new injury metric, one that expanded on AGL by including past stats that tried to evaluate how important a player was to a team. I thought you guys said that you would expand on it in FOA 2010, but I can't find it anywhere in the book.

So what happened to it? Did it not end up being any better than AGL?

Posted by: theshadowj on 14 Jul 2010

2 replies , Last at 15 Jul 2010, 4:45pm by theshadowj

Re: What happened to HGL?
by Bill Barnwell :: Wed, 07/14/2010 - 10:42pm

Still in the workshop. I've got a bunch of big ideas for injury projections that I tried to work into the book, but ended up not working out for a variety of reasons. I'd rather not introduce a new metric each year in the book for injury analysis, so I decided to hold off and hopefully end up introducing a much better metric in next year's book.

re: HGL vs. AGL, HGL is a marginal improvement on AGL (r2 of .25 vs .21, respectively).

Re: What happened to HGL?
by theshadowj :: Thu, 07/15/2010 - 4:45pm

Ah. Thanks for the update. I'm looking forward to it whenever it comes out.

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