Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Sep 2009

What have I done?

So, had my draft yesterday - 12 teams, standard scoring, 2RB/2WR/1Flex lineups with *7* bench slots. I used the KUBIAK projections from the Almanac, but I don't have the up-to-date numbers (and shame on me!), so I had to re-jigger things a bit. I didn't go by straight KUBIAK numbers, just moved up guys that the system liked to where I thought I could sneak them in. Results!

1.4 - Matt Forte (Turner went 3rd)
2.21 - Peyton Manning
3.28 - Ronnie Brown
4.45 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh
5.52 - Vincent Jackson
6.69 - Santonio Holmes
7.76 - Reggie Bush
8.93 - Felix Jones
9.100 - Torry Holt
10.117 - Matt Hasselbeck
11.124 - Tony Scheffler
12.141 - Chargers D/ST
13.148 - Jerious Norwood
14.165 - Visanthe Shiancoe
15.172 - James Davis
16.189 - Josh Scobee

I pretty badly miscalculated the other owners in my league and ended up with basically nothing for tight end - I could have had Gates in round 5, and he was actually at the top of my list, but I waffled. ALWAYS STICK TO THE LIST. Otherwise you get TONY SCHEFFLER. Because benches are so deep, everyone seems to have 2 TEs on their roster, so I think I just have to get lucky there or attempt some kind of trade. I might want to do some trading at RB too - my top 4 backs have TWO shared bye weeks, and week 5 I'll be missing Forte, Bush, and Jackson - get in there, Torry Holt!

So what kind of deal should I be looking for?

Posted by: Mystyc on 01 Sep 2009

4 replies , Last at 02 Sep 2009, 7:55pm by socctty

Re: What have I done?
by rdy4thefiesta :: Tue, 09/01/2009 - 1:31pm

I probably wouldn't worry too much about getting any sort of trade done. If a lot of people really drafted 2 TEs, then the rest of your league probably values the position way too highly. Therefore, you'll probably have to pay way too much for a slight upgrade at TE. Playing matchups with Scheffler and Visanthe won't kill you in a 12 team league, especially given the quality of the rest of your team.

If you are going to make a trade, I'd wait. You have a lot of assets that will look pretty good to teams once injuries and bye weeks roll around. You also might be able to flip Hasselbeck to a team in need of a starter, if Hasselbeck is the starting caliber fantasy option that I think he'll be.

Overall, don't worry about it. Your team is really solid.

Re: What have I done?
by Marcumzilla :: Tue, 09/01/2009 - 2:19pm

I like the team as well. I'm not sure about rostering two TE, unless you're looking to play matchups, or are swinging for the fences with a riskier, upside pick (Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennet).

Re: What have I done?
by tally :: Wed, 09/02/2009 - 11:47am

There's a dip at TE after Gates and Witten, but not much of a difference in that second tier. I think Greg Olsen was easily had at a good value in many leagues.

Re: What have I done?
by socctty :: Wed, 09/02/2009 - 7:55pm

It's funny looking at league results from non-PPR leagues after playing in one for the past three years. I was initially alarmed at your RB situation (Ronnie Brown as your #2? Really?) and impressed with your WR situation, but I then realized that RBs were probably going like hot-cakes in your draft.

I'm targeting Moss @ 8th overall in my league (1 PPR), and Norwood maybe as early as the 73rd overall (in a 10 team league). Nice to see your league hold true to the ADP projection for Norwood...

Perhaps KUBIAK should start using separate ADP listings for PPR leagues. I think it's getting popular enough to be useful.

Lots of new guys in my league this year and I'm sure someone is going to take Turner in the top 5. If I end up with Forte, LdT, or Bush, I'll probably pull the trigger on Norwood early. How that guy doesn't grab Norwood earlier than 148 is beyond me.

I expect to get mocked severely for taking Moss @ 8th and Norwood between the 8th and 10th rounds. But picking @ 13th, with Moss having a ADP of 10th and a ESPN ranking of 17th, I can't really afford to roll the dice on waiting for him @ 13, especially in a league with our entrance fee and 1 PPR.

Re: TEs, I've learned the hard way in the past that leagues that require a starting TE require you to reach earlier for a TE. It sounds obvious, but I was always eager to pick up the value picks from people who were taking TEs earlier than I was willing to, and I ended up with crap at TE it seemed. It's nice to lock that position down and forget about it; I hate playing match-ups with that position. In fact, I hate that leagues have exclusive TE positions in the first place - it's annoying because of the way they are actually used in real football as WR3s.

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