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14 Aug 2011
How exactly does the "Fantasy Points Over Baseline Auction" column work? What are those numbers telling me? I do play in an auction league.
Posted by: MatMan on 14 Aug 2011
8 replies , Last at
17 Aug 2011, 5:07pm by
It's a way to curve the auction values for the highest paid players. It takes the Fantasy Points over Baseline for a player, subtracts the FPOB from the first player who will be worth more than the league minimum (this number is always negative, so you're actually adding a number here), then raises that to an exponent which is based on how you set your auction aggressiveness.
This assigns every player an amount of "auction value points" which are then summed up to get the total value of players that will be bought for more than the minimum (Column CZ). Then it takes the total salary pool (# of owners * salary cap), and divides by the "auction value point" sum to figure out how much every value point is worth. Then when you multiply that number by each individual player's amount of "auction value points", you get his cost.
Hopefully that was clear as mud.
As an aside, I actually tweak this column to more accurately match how my auction tends to go. The "Auction Aggressiveness" entry on the Scoring Tab serves two functions: it determines how many players will go for the minimum salary (=(2.5+(0.5*nrAuctionAggressiveness))*nrPlayers), and it determines the exponent to which the Fantasy Points Over Last Not Minimum Salaried Player (henceforth referred to as FPOLNMSP) :) is raised.
After sorting through my last couple years of auction histories, I found that we had an average of 52 players going for $1 in my league. This equates most closely to an Auction Aggressiveness of 4. But, that only makes the highest paid player in my league go for $59. Every year, the highest paid player goes for $70 or slightly more, so to get that reflected in my auction values, I change in the FPOB Auction column from (1.05+0.05*nrAuctionAggressiveness) to (1.3+0.05*nrAuctionAggressiveness).
Whether or not I actually should be doing it this, I suppose, is up for debate, but I know if I want any of the top fifteen players, I'm going to have to pay more than KUBIAK recommends. But I've always subscribed to the Studs and Duds theory since the Duds I typically pick (with the help of KUBIAK), usually end up doing very well (Wallace last year for $5; Cutler, Cassel, and Garrard all for $1; Kenny Britt for $1).
Thanks Chris. I have the same problem in my league. I play in a league with pretty good owners but crazy rules (12 teams, 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 RB/WR flex, 1 QB/RB/WR flex, 1 TE/K/DEF, PPR, lots of assorted bonuses). Because there are so many spots to fill and the baselines are so low (24th QB, 72nd RB/WR), the top guys only have an auction value of around $40 and the Davone Besses of the world have a pretty high value. In actuality, a ton of guys will go for over $40 and Chris Johnson went for $68, while Bess went for $2. That formula change made it a lot easier to identify value.
That being said, I still think it's best to avoid the top guys in an auction like ours. Last year, I was the only person to not bid more than $33 (Roddy White), and did pretty well with some Kubiak favorites of last year (Charles, Mendenhall, White, Freeman) without breaking the bank on a top-tier player.
I agree with what you say about avoiding some of the top, top guys. But since I always follow the 75% rule (bid on any player if he's going for 75% or less of what you have him valued, no matter how much you "like" him), I like to use my skewed numbers to get that 75% baseline. Also, since we have a keeper league, I find it helps with the dilemma of inflation due to positional scarcity since most of the players being kept in our league tend to be Tier 1 RBs (the guys who normally go for $70). Additionally, it helps me choose which person to keep if I know how much he'd go for unprotected in my auction.
Yep, I agree - I play in a keeper league as well and I think the values using your formula are more in line with my league's habits, although due to our league rules and a high inflation amount ($10 for each player) it's usually not the top tier RBs who are kept. Thanks again.
Chris-- can you explain the number of min value players calculation? I get:
Auction aggressiveness = 3
Players = 180
min auction players = (2.5+(0.5*3))*180 = 720?!
Players = Owners in league. Not auction pool.
(2.5+(0.5*3))*12 = 48
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