Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Aug 2010

When 3-13 is a step up

Hurray! The NFL season is just one month away! (Kind of. A little more than a month.)

but the Lions are unlikely to improve much, if at all. They may be picking first overall in 2011. They may actually have regressed in 2009, their schedule looks to be difficult in 2010, and the one time they're on national TV is certain to be yet another rout. (Hello, New England. The turkey usually sits in the owner's box.)

Even in a best-case scenario, the Lions will rival the 1990-92 Patriots as one of the worst post-strike-era teams in NFL history. At worst, they'll fit right in with the WWII Cardinals ... if they hit their projection (and become one of the roughly 10% of NFL teams who managed to improve two or more wins in one season and one or more the following season), 5-43-0, well, most teams win more than that in one season.

You know it's bad when you're reduced to hoping for things like "please actually figure out how this play-action stuff works."

Posted by: zlionsfan on 02 Aug 2010

4 replies , Last at 17 Aug 2010, 5:17pm by zlionsfan

1
Re: When 3-13 is a step up
by Yaguar :: Mon, 08/02/2010 - 10:53pm

I'm much more bullish on the Lions than FOA is. I think they've got a solid 5 wins in them, and that they'll even improve once again in 2011.

2
Re: When 3-13 is a step up
by zlionsfan :: Tue, 08/03/2010 - 12:47am

I would take 5-11 in a heartbeat ... uh, St. Louis and Tampa Bay should be winnable, maybe a split with Chicago ... and ... Buffalo, maybe? (Although that's a November game at Buffalo.) I'm not sure I can see 5 ...

3
Re: When 3-13 is a step up
by tuluse :: Tue, 08/03/2010 - 1:37am

I think you guys should have a shot at Green Bay in one game. Outside of their passing game, I'm don't their team is all that great.

Washington is probably beatable.

4
Re: When 3-13 is a step up
by zlionsfan :: Tue, 08/17/2010 - 5:17pm

That's the problem, though. Detroit's secondary is still awful. Of course that's a problem in any game - you want to be weak against the run if you have to pick one - but against teams that have strong passing games, it's going to be ugly.

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