Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Jun 2009

Where Does Marshall End Up?

Today's question: Does Brandon Marshall get traded, too? If so, where? For what? And what's his new deal like? Ok, today has four questions.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 17 Jun 2009

50 replies , Last at 19 Jun 2009, 4:48pm by MJK

1
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Keith (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:03am

I do not see the Broncos getting what they want for him (similar value that the infinitely amazing Roy Williams got). They will probably take a 2 and a defensive depth player from a young team, so probably San Francisco will make a run at him.

3
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Tim Wilson :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:13am

Yeah, I think you're looking at a high second rounder and maybe a 5th rounder as the max value here, especially since the Broncos have once again given up all their leverage by telling the league they are being forced to trade away a player.

Plus the off-the-field troubles and potential for a big-time suspension if he messes up again will drop him a bit, Roy Williams and Jay Cutler did not have those.

2
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by slipknottin :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:10am

A real interesting trade would be to carolina for peppers.

I would imagine the Broncos would have to throw in a 1st and another draft pick to swing it. But the panthers need a WR, the Broncos need a pass rusher, and Peppers wants to play in a 3-4.

4
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Keith (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:15am

This is a deal that nobody would make.

6
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by BywaterBrat (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:20am

No one at the panther's maybe- watching Steve Smith and Marshall go at it with bricks would be fun though

5
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Doug Farrar :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:19am

To the Browns, straight up, for Josh Cribbs. The Broncos will then become the first NFL team to gain more return yards than offensive yards in a season.

7
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by JCapgun (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:25am

Could the Broncos swing a deal with the Cards for Boldin, straight up? It could be kind of like the Bailey/Portis deal where neither team wanted to pay the player they had, but were willing to give big deals to the player they recieved in the trade. Marshall *might* have more upside, but Boldin is a bit older, and doesn't have the threat of suspension hanging over him.

10
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by J.D. (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:04pm

If the Cards don't want to pay Boldin, it's because they don't want to pay another WR.

8
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by moses74 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:52am

Cowboys

I'm not saying it makes any sense. But this is the Cowboys.

Of course, Redskins also makes sense from that point of view.

Staying on the NFC East theme, the Giants have a big hole at WR.

Probably not the Eagles though.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Robert M. (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:00pm

Is there any sort of consensus on how good Brandon Marshall is? The spectrum of opinions, even?

11
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:27pm

It seems that most think he's a top-notch wideout.

I don't, but I seem to be outside the box here (not unusual territory for me).

14
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Doug Farrar :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:47pm

I think he's good-but-not-great in the same way that Braylon Edwards is - he's capable of amazing plays and boneheaded route-running in equal doses. He seems undisciplined on the field, at least that's the impression I get with all the times I've seen Cutler give him the stinkeye when he apprently boxed off a route or went the wrong way. Of course, that could be equal parts Petulant Quarterback 101, but I didn't see Cutler shooting daggers at his other receivers.

17
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by jonnyblazin :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 1:13pm

I think Marshall has much more upside than Edwards though, Marshall has the type of freakish athleticism that T.O. or Randy Moss have (or had). He can get away with being sloppy or undisciplined and still dominate.

Marshall might be worth a first round draft pick, but there is no way Edwards is worth one IMO.

19
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 1:48pm

I think his numbers are better than Edwards'. It's a bit apples and oranges, though, speedy deep threat guy vs. no-longer-than-15-yards-in-the-air-possesion-guy.

Besides, if you can find a coach that can get to him (thats a big if though) boxy routes is an upside, because you can teach those. I'm sure loads of recievers have started out with poor routes (due to college domination, maybe) and the caught on as they got older. You can't teach the route specialist to be 6-4, 229.

39
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by justanothersteve :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 12:26pm

Does that make him a more talented Billy Schroeder? BS was a college decathlete who the Packers drafted as a WR. When Favre was his QB, BS was a 1000 yard WR, albeit one who ran bad or cut off routes which subsequently raised the princess's INT rate as he threw to the spot BS should have been located. BS then received a nice UFA contract from Detroit where he couldn't crack the starting lineup.

18
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 1:39pm

I consider him top-10 talent. Instant starter on every team (you might have an argument with Marshall/Boldin, though I'm taking Marshall).

A top-10 reciever hitting the market? Doesn't happen too often. I don't know how much of a discount the off-the-field-issues will demand, but a 2nd + a 4th maybe even a 3rd seems right to me...

29
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Big Johnson (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 7:57pm

good question robert. Ill probably be in the minority here but i happen to think marshall isnt close to the value everyone else thinks he has. It took him 181 targets to get 1200 yards receiving last year. There are two apparent problems for me with that number of targets. 1. Injuries 2. Production per target

Not many people will argue that Cutler is a much more talented quarterback than Orton. With cutler he put up 1266 yards and got targeted 181 times. With Orton he is much more likely of getting targetted 130 times (still a high number, about where guys like steve smith reggie wayne and anquan boldin ended up last year). At the same type of production he had last year(6.99 yards per target) with 130 targets he would end up with 909 yards by the end of the year.

I will go out on a limb and say that I dont think Marshall is even a bonafide number 1 receiver in the nfl. Even his mentality stinks. Guys like boldin play through contract disputes because they know they will end up proving the naysayers wrong. Guys like Marshall need their money right then and there so that they can relax and start enjoying life outside of football. He lacks the killer instinct

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 5:56am

One of my only problems with Cutler's play last year was that he seemed to throw it to Marshall every time he didn't know what to do. Instead of throwing it out of bounds, he targeted Marshall (Besides, throwing out of bounds brings you that much closer to a punt, and a punt for the 2008 Broncos meant -7 points on the scoreboard. Every time.). I'm not saying that's responsible for all of Marshall's unproductive targets - I'm just saying it COULD be.

12
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by slipknottin :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:27pm

Giants I dont think are willing to take on another WR, especially one with issues. Giants may not have any proven guys at WR, but they have 5 guys who were high draft picks in the past 4 seasons. Moss (2nd round), Hixon (4th round), Smith (2nd round), Manningham (3rd round), Nicks (1st round), and Barden (3rd round). I think at this point with what they have invested in the young guys they have to go ahead with what they have.

Eagles may be a possible landing place, I dont see the cowboys making any play for a WR.

13
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Roscoe :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:44pm

Re the Giants, I think this is just another example of how badly the Broncos have handled this pre-season. The Giants have a critical need for a big play wide out, and prior to the draft would have likely made a pretty good offer for Marshall. Now, however, after they have spent a first and a third in the draft on receivers, it is highly unlikely that Reese is willing to spend next years draft picks on yet another receiver. So barring some kind of "Nicks for Marshall" deal, I don't think the Giants are in the mix here.

15
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by tonic889 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:52pm

If the Ravens offered a 1st and Todd Heap for Boldin, I see no reason not to do the same for Marshall....

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Daniel Joaquin (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:56pm

Is it just me cause I'm a Bears fan? I think the Bears are a great place for him. They need a No 1 receiver. I know he has some character issues but the Broncos have diminished his trade value by letting everyone know they want to trade him + Cutler and him already have chemistry. What more could they want?

I think they would do it considering the D is not getting any younger and they already gave up their first for next year. I say we send them our second and something/someone else to get it done. Make a run at the SB this year.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Henrik Madsen (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 7:39am

Yes, but they are already a bit low on ammunition after the Cutler trade.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Enigma (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 2:58pm

re: #1

WR is actually quite low on San Francisco's list of pressing needs. QB, pass-rushing OLB, and OL are greater concerns at the moment. The have more average / potentially above average WRs than they can put on the field. Now someone to throw those WRs the ball? That would be nice. Between Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Jason Hill the team has three young WRs with the potential to be capable starters. Isaac Bruce is a shadow of his former self, but still produces enough to stick on the roster. Opinions of Brandon Jones and Arnaz Battle vary. However, they both can do enough to force the team to keep six WRs.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 3:13pm

I'm going to sort of stream-of-consciousness figure out where I would expect Marshall to go here.

First, what teams need (or at least could have good use for) a WR (anyone questionable included)? NYJ, Mia, Bal, Cin, Cle, Jax, Ten, KC, Oak, SD, Was, NYG, Dal, Chi, Det, Min, Atl, Car, TB, StL, SF

Now eliminate division opponents (all three of whom were on that list) and we're down to 18 teams. I doubt he will be second banana (or equal banana, so to speak) anywhere between his own ego and what a team will have to give up to get him, so that probably eliminates SD, Det, Atl, KC, and Car. 13 teams now. Then we can remove those who have made recent significant investments into the position and so probably won't want to make another one--NYG, Min, and SF fall here (though SF is questionable). That takes us down to 10. Then we can probably eliminate the real ball control teams that won't want to spend money on a WR (SF could go here too so I feel safe eliminating them anyway) and I will except Chi from this group because we don't really know what they're planning to do with Cutler in town)--NYJ, Bal, Jax, Ten, and TB.

So now the list reads: Mia, Cin, Cle, Chi, and Was. I would doubt Mia just because Parcells really doesn't like undisciplined WRs like Marshall, see T. Owens. That leaves us with 4 landing spots. I doubt Cincinnati would pay for him, so that leaves Cleveland, Chicago, and Washington. I just don't see what Chicago would give up for him, considering what they already gave up for Cutler, so I'm going to bet on Cleveland or Washington.

I just thought it would be fun to do a post going through step-by-step like that--it probably made most of you want to hang yourselves by your tongues so I'll pre-emptively apologize.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by KyleW :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 3:30pm

Apart from forgetting completely about STL halfway through you have a reasonable analysis (you could have omitted them with either the ball control guys or the teams with an investment there).

I wouldn't discount Baltimore though they seem to me like the sort of team who could use a big body possession WR.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Dales :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 9:53am

edited to say 'never mind'

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by KyleW :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 3:30pm

Apart from forgetting completely about STL halfway through you have a reasonable analysis (you could have omitted them with either the ball control guys or the teams with an investment there).

I wouldn't discount Baltimore though they seem to me like the sort of team who could use a big body possession WR.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 3:46pm

Does StL count as an NFL team?

I did just forget to include them after the opening, sorry.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 3:54pm

I did the same thing with Dallas--however, I'm not sure what to do with them. It seems they believe they have a number one guy in Williams and he has looked it in the past (though obviously not last season), so maybe they belong in the "second banana" group. The Williams trade could also put them in the "already invested" group, though Jerry Jones is never loathe to make another move. However, I can't firmly put them in either, which means they could easily be a possibility at the end, too.

And I don't mean to say that I'm totally discounting many, if indeed any, of the first set of teams--that's just the process I would go by to pick his most likely destination. I doubt Baltimore largely because I don't see Ozzie Newsome thinking it's a good idea to pair a young, inaccurate, developing quarterback with a WR with inconsistent hands and major route-running issues. Some teams might think that's a good idea, but I think Baltimore is too smart for that.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by jonnyblazin :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 5:23pm

I don't think Flacco is inaccurate at all, he's just a little too casual in the pocket sometimes and needs to clean up his mechanics. But he puts the ball where he wants it.

Remember Ozzie Newsome did trade for T.O. in 2004, but an arbiter ruled that T.O. had to go to Philly instead (never really figured that one out). If anything, Ozzie might push for acquiring Marshall and Harbaugh might be against it, Harbaugh being obsessed with character, integrity, blah blah blah.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 6:50pm

I did think of the T.O. situation after I posted, so that's definitely a good point.

For Flacco, I haven't seen him play much at all, so perhaps he's more accurate than I'm giving him credit for. He completed 60% of his passes last year, which isn't bad.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Dales :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 9:54am

edited to say 'never mind'

27
Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by The Anti-Dave (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 6:06pm

The Jaguars won't be in the hunt, not so much because of the ball-control philosophy but because they've placed an obvious emphasis on character and seem tremendously pleased with the three receivers they drafted in the later rounds. Vic Ketchman has said repeatedly that he believes the Jaguars have "fixed" their long-standing problem at the position. Additionally, Jacksonville already traded away next year's second-round pick and almost definitely will not deal any more picks; and if they're in the market for any veterans, it'll be at backup QB, DT, and possibly backup LB.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Enigma (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:25pm

Although I would not be surprised to see Marshall traded, I also would not be surprised if the Broncos force him to suck it up and stay put. Marshall has little (if any) leverage in the matter. He has to play out the season in order to reach free agency (pending the CBA talks).

It's also worth noting that any team trading for Marshall will have to be wary of a possible suspension pending the outcome of Marshall's trial in August for misdemeanor domestic battery. That uncertainty combined with the series of previous incidents that Marshall has been involved with (including scuffling with his current fiancee in the presence of police officers) will likely make most teams think twice making a significant investment in him.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 10:17am

I have loathed the Broncos for as long as I can remember, but I have to admit that all the smugness on this board has changed my tune. I am hoping like hell that they have a suprisingly good season.

Anyone who has watched NE or who knows anything about the system they run knows that a WR like Marshall is a very poor fit. Frankly, the same thing goes for Cutler as well. I can honestly say that I wouldn't want either player on NE.

Now, that said, players can certainly improve and adapt. However, their actions this offseason have made it abundantly clear that they had no intention of doing so. Another issue for debate is whether a coach should adjust the roster for his system or vice versa. I don't know the right answer, but I don't believe it is as clearcut as people here want to make it. In the last two years, McDaniels has run one of the most successful offenses ever and had another strong offense quaterbacked by a guy who hadn't started in nearly a decade. Can anyone fault him for having more confidence in his system than trying to run someone elses?

It seems quite plausible that McDaniels would have altered his system somewhat to take advantage of Cutler's athletisism. He certainly did for Cassel.

The runningback thing I am unsure of. NE rarely had even a half stable of healthy RBs during McDaniels' time and that may have impacted his thoughts. McDaniels was prominantly involved in two of NE's most ignominious losses, both of which likely would have swung the other way had more quality depth been available at the RB position.

It isn't even remotely close to the unmitigated disaster people seem to think.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Eddo :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 10:43am

"Another issue for debate is whether a coach should adjust the roster for his system or vice versa. I don't know the right answer, but I don't believe it is as clearcut as people here want to make it. In the last two years, McDaniels has run one of the most successful offenses ever and had another strong offense quaterbacked by a guy who hadn't started in nearly a decade. Can anyone fault him for having more confidence in his system than trying to run someone elses?"

McDaniels should have confidence in his system, yes, but only to a point. Remember, he agreed to take a job with a team that already had a top-five offense, a young franchise QB, and a variety of other very good skill position players. It seems that dismantling that core is more indicative of misplaced hubris than mere confidence is his abilities.

And even within a system, you still need the players. In 2007, he had a Hall-of-Fame-level QB and WR1, a very good offensive line, and arguably the best possession receiver currently in the league. In 2008, he had the same personnel except for the QB, and the offense did perform worse. If anything, that should show him that, while he can construct a good offense with a replacement QB, having a great one is better.

Lost in all this is that McDaniels didn't put together the Patriots' offense in the first place! He was originally a defensive backs coach for the team, then in 2005, while not officially offensive coordinator, began calling the plays. The offensive line was already in place. So was the QB. McDaniels didn't become an offensive "genius" until Moss and Welker arrived for the 2007 season. It's not like he actually built the Patriots' offense himself over the years; most of it was already in place.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 1:43pm

Again, what you see as a franchise QB, Josh may look at and see a guy who can't adequately run his system. Frankly, there is plenty of reason to believe that Cutler is not a good fit for NE's style of offense.

It is also a misrepresentation of McDaniels' success to point at purely the additions in 2007. NE had probably the worse receiving corps in the entire league in 2006, yet were respectible passing, even quite good according to DVOA. McDaniels has seen his offense perform successfully with a great QB and lousy receivers and with an unknown QB and excellent receivers (running backs both years were good but not great). He has seen it perform historically well with great QB/WR combo (along with extrememly limited RB stable). In 2005, when McD was assumed but not confirmed, NE was successful despite Brady having a hernia for half the season and Dillon falling off the cliff. The OL has been a solid factor in all years.

About the only that hasn't seen success is the bad QB/WR/RB combo. This isn't a case of "he can do well when he has all the parts". Frankly, it is about as far from that as possible.

Lastly, I agree that McDaniels' didn't create this completely by himself, but I think that gives him even more confidence. This same offense was successful the 4 years prior to his promotion despite less than ideal offensive parts.

Clearly Josh doesn't have Brady on this team, but he didn't have him when he was first hired either.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Eddo :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 3:03pm

It very well could be that McDaniels doesn't feel Cutler is the right fit for the exact offense NE ran; but you know what, to be a successful NFL coach, you must be adaptable. Look no further than Bill Belichick, who doesn't really run a "system".

And, for argument's sake, let's say that McDaniels felt that Cutler was a bad fit for the kind of offense he wanted to run. Why would he take a job with the Broncos, who already had a top tier offense? He either misrepresented himself to Bowlen, or Bowlen ignored the fact that his new coach's first act would be to dismantle a very successful unit.

While it's not necessarily correct to claim that McDaniels cannot run a good offense without a great QB or WRs, it is also not correct to claim that he can. He hasn't proven anything other than that he could run a successful offense when he had either a great QB or great WRs (and said offense was already good before he took over, remember).

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 3:28pm

Look no further than Bill Belichick, who doesn't really run a "system"

I'm not sure I agree with this. BB admitted after the draft that the OLBs in this years draft didn't have the measurables (height/weight/speed) that he likes to have for his system. The Patriots are very flexible "within" their system, but they most certainly have one.

And, for argument's sake, let's say that McDaniels felt that Cutler was a bad fit for the kind of offense he wanted to run. Why would he take a job with the Broncos, who already had a top tier offense? He either misrepresented himself to Bowlen, or Bowlen ignored the fact that his new coach's first act would be to dismantle a very successful unit.

Again I have to agree. I will admit that I thought the easybake offense was one of the attractions, but there are plenty more. Denver is a strong football town, the ownership is stable and appears to be non-intrusive. The OL is excellent and fits extremely well into McDaniels' plans.

I also disagree with the latter statement as well. Bowlen could very well have a great deal of confidence in McDaniels and his ability to retool the team, despite some growing pains.

While it's not necessarily correct to claim that McDaniels cannot run a good offense without a great QB or WRs, it is also not correct to claim that he can. He hasn't proven anything other than that he could run a successful offense when he had either a great QB or great WRs (and said offense was already good before he took over, remember).

Show me the last OC or DC to run a great unit without the benefit of great players.

Aside from that, in 2005 NE was strong offensively (not great but above average) with average receivers, below average RBs and a hobbled Brady. You also downplay just how good NE was in 2007 and the end of 2008. I can state with absolute certainty that Moss was not RANDY MOSS!!! last year. He was a solid #1 guy. People seem to think Cassel was a product of the system as well. So was Welker that good? Or was it the bone jarring combo of Sammy Morris and Lamont Jordan?

Lastly, you are again trying to make the success of Weis' similar system to be a negative when it is actually a positive. There is more track record of success with a wider range of player abilities. That is a good thing.

McDaniels' ability to implement said system is what is up in the air.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 3:30pm

Sorry about the lack of italics in this. I thought I had bracketed stuff off, but apparently not. Makes for a difficult read.

Mea Culpa.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by BigCheese :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 4:32pm

"Frankly, there is plenty of reason to believe that Cutler is not a good fit for NE's style of offense."

Frankly, you keep saying that, and also include Marshall in such a statement. Exactly what is this evidence? If there is plenty of it I'm sure you can name a few items of it.

Because simply saying "anyone who knows the system knows Culter and Marshall were not good fits for it," means absolutely nothing without actually providing an explanation of why that is.

Because I sure don't know about many offenses where strong-armed, mobile quarterbacks with a very fast release are not a good fit.

- Alvaro

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 4:58pm

I will liken it to what I know best, songwriting. Some songwriters are technitions, deliberating each note played. Radiohead is like this.

Others are more willing to fly by the seat of their pants and actually enjoy the rough sound of a raw outtake. Think Violent Femmes.

While neither is right or wrong, that doesn't stop listeners from having a preference.

The system McDaniels prefers to run depends on a QB being extremely cerebral and willing to accept small gains if that is what is availabe. Paradoxically, it requires a QB to command respect as if he is the most important player, but rely on his teammates as if he is just another guy.

Plenty of strong armed, mobile guys have lacked the desire or the mental/emotional makeup to play in this manner. There is more to being a QB than just the physical aspect. From what I have seen/read, Cutler is more of a gunslinger in the Favre mode. That is not a denigration by any means, Favre at his peak was one of the best ever. You can certainly win with a Favre-type QB.

At the same time, as a coach, you may prefer a different type of QB to run your style of offense.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Eddo :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 5:19pm

Jay Cutler, 2008:

Yards per attempt: 7.3 (10th in NFL)
Yards per completion: 11.8 (T-9th in NFL)

Matt Cassell, 2008:

Yards per attempt: 7.2 (T-11th in NFL)
Yards per completion: 11.3 (T-13th in NFL)

Kyle Orton, 2008:
Yards per attempt: 6.4 (T-24th in NFL)
Yards per completion: 10.9 (T-25th in NFL)

So yeah, Cutler appears to be just a bit more of a downfield thrower than Cassell, who apparently fits very well into McDaniels's system. However, Cutler seems much more similar to Cassell that the QB McDaniels replaced him with, Kyle Orton.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by tuluse :: Fri, 06/19/2009 - 12:04am

Yards per completion includes YAC, so I don't think this is a very good measure of throwing down field.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Fri, 06/19/2009 - 11:20am

I'm actually surprised that Cutler and Cassel's stats are that close, but I don't think that the style of play was that close. Shotgun vs. drop back, quick developing vs. longer, presnap reads vs. postsnap, accuracy on short passes vs. accuracy on long, designed rollouts vs. more pocket passing.

There are a lot of ways that two QBs can play vastly different styles and yet end up with similar stats.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by MJK :: Fri, 06/19/2009 - 4:48pm

One important fact that seems to be overlooked here (as it often is in this recurring discussion about McDaniels, Cutler, Cassel, and Orton) is that McDaniels probably didn't walk into Denver and say "Man, I really need to get rid of this Cutler guy and replace him with Matt Cassel, or, failing that, Kyle Orton".

We don't know what the terms of the proposed trade involving Cassel and Cutler were, so we don't actually know if it would have resulted in Cassel replacing Cutler straight up. In fact, other information from an Bill Belichick interview has implied (but of course not verified) that that kind of trace scenario probably did not arise. Most likely, Denver would have ended up with Cassel AND something else (draft pick/defensive player(s), etc). I'm a huge Cassel supporter, and Cutler denigrator, and even I wouldn't have traded Cutler for Cassel straight up in McDaniel's shoes. But Cutler for Cassel and, say, a 2nd round pick, or a servicable defenisve tackle, sure.

Also, once Bowlen forced McDaniels to trade away Cutler, McDaniel's choice wasn't "Which QB fits my proposed system more: Jay Cutler or Kyle Orton?" His choice was "OK, given that I can't get Cassel, my owner is making me get rid of Cutler, and has torpedoed any leverage that I might have had in trying to make a trade by publicaly announcing it, all I can get in return is Kyle Orton and some draft picks or Jason Campbell and some equivalent draft picks. Would I rather have Kyle Orton or Jason Campbell?" I personally would have gone with Campbell, but it's not a starkly easy choice, and I imagine that McDaniels has better scouting data on both players than I do, so I can't really talk that much.

The metrics on which McDaniels' QB decisions come down to should not be "Does Cutler play better than Orton?", which is what most people seem to make it out to be. It should be "Does Cutler play way way better than Cassel?", which will reflect on McDaniels entertaining that trade in the first place, and then "Does Orton play better than Campbell", which will reflect on his decision on who to trade Cutler for.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by ChiTown (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 11:30am

Jaguars trade LB Clint Ingram and a 2010 3rd Round Pick for WR Brandon Marshall.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Key19 :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 12:20pm

I really, REALLY hope that Dallas does not trade for him. Bringing in Marshall would just result is someone not getting enough touches. Right now, the only guy who would complain about touches is Roy, and that's ok with me because that can be easily accommodated. But if Marshall came, then you'd have TWO guys not happy with their touches. Marshall is also more T.O.-like in his complaints whereas I don't see Roy as being nearly as much of a problem. I was sick of T.O. all season last year, and bringing in "Baby T.O." would just totally be ridiculous and erase all of the progress Jerry has made with the team this season.

There are plenty of guys to get the ball on this offense. Roy, Witten, Austin, Crayton, Bennett, Hurd, Barber, Jones, Choice. We do not need Marshall even if Austin does not live up to the hype. If Patrick Crayton can have another 2007-esque season, I would be more than pleased with him as our #2 WR if he beats out Miles. The fact of the matter is that we have plenty of guys who should be getting a good amount of touches, and bringing in Marshall will only take away from their opportunities and development. Yes, I know that Miles Austin and Sam Hurd (and Isaiah Stanback, but I don't even consider him on the team anymore really) are already hurt, but Marshall is not needed. Felix can be our #3 WR in a pinch with Crayton at #2.

Beyond the offensive perspective, there is a financial perspective. Bringing in Marshall pretty much tells DeMarcus Ware "well, we're not going to get your deal done this year. Tough luck man." DeMarcus has been a real trooper so far this offseason about his contract and I'd like him to stay positive and motivated and not get a total slap in the face by Jerry. I would MUCH rather have D-Ware than Marshall, no question. So let's get D-Ware signed and let someone else have Marshall.

BTW I do not think Marshall is as good as the hype about him is.

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Re: Where Does Marshall End Up?
by Moon_Hippo (not verified) :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 2:08pm

You're forgetting the really important thing : Does Brandon Marshall play golf, and where does he stand on "tucking" ???

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