Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Jun 2009

Which one's a keeper?

I get to keep three players in this league.

Number of teams: 10

Passing: 1 point/50 yards (+2 points for 300 yard day), TDs worth 6 points
Rushing: 1 point/20 yards (+2 for 100 yard day), TDs worth 6 points
Receiving: 1 point/20 yards (+2 for 100 yard day), TDs worth 6 points

INTs and Fumbles worth -2 points

Roster positions: QB, QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF with 5 bench guys.

Basically, assume that there will be no starting QBs are available on the waiver wire.

My two automatic keepers: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

My third keeper comes from this list: Ryan Grant (RB), Calvin Johnson (WR), Thomas Jones (RB), Reggie Wayne (WR).

Who would you keep?

Posted by: roguerouge on 15 Jun 2009

9 replies , Last at 29 Jun 2009, 6:31am by Yadda3x

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by Marcumzilla :: Mon, 06/15/2009 - 4:27pm

Is there any difference in cost between keeping any of them?

I would lean more towards your WR options. I know RB is the typical fantasy stud, but you're looking at elite WRs versus good RBs. I wouldn't be surprised if Megatron takes another step forward, and I expect (and hope) Wayne has a huge bounceback season. I'd think Grant and Jones are more likely to be there when you have your first picks.

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by Dan :: Mon, 06/15/2009 - 5:11pm

It has to be Calvin. Even in redraft leagues he's going ahead of the other guys, and he's the only one whose value is likely to rise over the coming years. Wayne is not far behind (he should have at least a couple great years with Manning left), Grant is a little ways back (there are questions over how long he'll keep his job), and Jones is running out of productive fantasy years and shouldn't even be in the conversation.

If you're allowed to make trade for keepers then I'd try to make a deal, because other teams are going to have keepers who are much worse than Wayne (you may be able to trade your 2 WRs for a top RB or to get Brees for a QB & a WR).

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by tuluse :: Tue, 06/16/2009 - 3:26am

I don't know, I would keep TJ over Grant. I could also see Wayne outproducing Johnson next year with a 100% Manning.

It depends how much short-term vs long-term you want. I would say the receivers seem like the best choices.

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by roguerouge :: Tue, 06/16/2009 - 2:09pm

The way that keepers work in our league is that you get to keep them as long as you like. You decide who your three keepers are in each year.

I'll be drafting in the middle of the first round. (Curse my early season woes!)

Thanks for the advice, everyone. Any more advice is much appreciated!

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by BigCheese :: Tue, 06/16/2009 - 4:00pm

If it's the same cost for them it's between Wayne and Megatron. My prediction is that Wayne will have the better year in 2010, but Megatron will be elite for several years to come, so I would probably go with him.

- Alvaro

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by ricolie (not verified) :: Wed, 06/17/2009 - 9:40pm

Wait! u got 10 teams and no other starting qb's. cause my 1st suggestion would be to trade one of your qb's for a 1St round rb! calvin would be my pick.

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by roguerouge :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 2:00pm

Not sure I understand your point, ricolie. Perhaps I was being unclear about the QBs, though. Remember that this is a 6 pt passing TD league and that you START two QBs each week. Here's the QBs likely to be protected based on my best guess for each team ():

Romo or Rogers (tons of good keepers), Rivers, Brees, E Manning, Cassell (the guy has few choices), McNabb, Ryan, Warner.

So that leaves either Romo or Rogers, then Roethlisberger and Cutler then...

Which RB would you aim for in exchange for either Manning or Brady?

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by Yadda3x :: Mon, 06/29/2009 - 6:31am

I think it's a bit of a reflex for him to suggest to trade away the second quarterback. I don't blame him though, the rules of your league push quarterbacks up (scarcity and point/TD) and push receivers down (low yardage value) And, those are both players in the top 30 of just a regular draft. If you could trade for a top 8 RB then I'd say go for it. But, barring injury the guys you have are solid to be in the top 3 QB and are both in the top 30 of a "normal" draft.

I have rotoworld's predicted scores and here is the predicted difference between the number one player of a position and the last player used with your scoring system. After are some variations.
(1-30) RB: 204.75 - 84.25 = 120.50
(1-20) QB: 244.65 - 140.40 = 104.05
(1-30) WR: 146.24 - 78.00 = 68.24
(1-10) TE: 105.50 - 62.75 = 42.75

(1-10) QB: 244.65 - 183.70 = 60.95 (10 quarterbacks, Everyone gets a good QB)
(4-33) RB: 159.50 - 81.50 = 78.00 (The first 3 RB are usually monsters! these are the mortals)
(1-30 pt/10yd recv) WR: 214.50 - 123.85 = 90.65 (bigger spread, good receivers carry the ball further)
(1-30 pt/10yd recv&rush) RB: 301.50 - 130.50 = 171.00 (crikey!)

If I were smart, I would have used last year's real scores. But, it didn't occur to me until just now. Anyway, if you can decipher what I wrote you can see that RB have the widest range, then QB, then it drops way down to WR, then and again to TE. The statistics guys would have a field day with this simplistic analysis but it does show how much a small rule change can impact the scores. The moral of this story is understand how your rules work and have a monster running back. But, also I wouldn't worry about having those 2 particular QB, and a high end WR (definitely Johnson.)

Re: Which one's a keeper?
by keeperleaguegm :: Thu, 06/18/2009 - 5:46pm

I'd go with Reggie Wayne. Calvin Johnson will be a stud, but with a rookie QB, it may not be until 2010. The tandem of Wayne and Peyton for you will pay major dividends. Ryan Grant will be my second option, but there are a few rookie "tweeners" that could serve nicely, depending on where you pick.

Mike Caprio
General Manager
Keeper League GM.com

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