Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Oct 2009

Which Receivers To Start or Sit in Week 5

I have done most of the work for you ladies and gents. Based of FO defense efficiency ratings and how teams match up against #1, #2, and other receivers as well as TE and RB, here some match ups for you

And note, for the nit pickers, this title is meant just to get people to read this post, do not not start players because they have an unfavorable match ups or start a player just because they have a favorable match up, this is just a reference to help you decide who to start or sit

Unfavorable Match Ups:
-Derrick Mason
-Louis Murphy
-Antonio Bryant
-Donnie Avery
-Joey Galloway
-Darrius Heyword-Bey
-Lav Coles
-Michael Jenkins
-Ted Ginn Jr.
-Mario Manningham
-Josh Cribbs
-Wes Welker
-Marty Booker (although if you were considering starting Booker to begin with you're either dumb or are in a 30 team league, in which case you should probably start Booker anyway)
-Brandon Stokley
-Kevin Boss
-Kellen Winslow
-Alge Crumpler
-Bo Scaife
-Zach Miller
-Anthony Fasano

RB for PPR leagues and have unfavorable receiving match ups:
-Ronnie Brown
-Ricky Williams
-Brian Westbrook
-Brandon Jacobs
-Ahmad Bradshaw
-Jerome Harrison
-Chris Johnson
-Tim Hightower

To see who as favorable match ups visit:

Posted by: kaptrap19 on 08 Oct 2009

4 replies , Last at 09 Oct 2009, 11:17am by kaptrap19

by Snowglare :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 8:15pm

Those stats tell you very little. They're only useful if you investigate why teams have played well against certain positions. For example, Denver.

Opponents: Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys
#2 WRs faced: Coles/Caldwell, Cribbs/Furrey/Massaquoi rotation, DHB?, and Crayton.

Welker is better than any of them, and he doesn't have Quinn or Russell throwing to him. It's much the same for the rest. A good matchup won't make Coles bounce back or turn DHB into an NFL player, so it doesn't matter if they have a bad matchup. You don't ever want to play them, and you only want to sit Welker if he's hurt or you're absolutely stacked at WR.

One of the few cases where it matters is Manningham, as he'll probably see a lot of Asomugha Sunday. Darrelle Revis would also be worrisome if any Miami WRs were worth using.

Re: Which Receivers To Start or Sit in Week 5
by kaptrap19 :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 9:21pm

I just said who has an unfavorable match ups not who will suck. You can do well in an unfavorable match up and suck in a favorable one.

And even FO admits who is considered a 1st, 2nd receiver is subjective. If you don't want to believe this list, feel free to disregard it.

Thank you, I already did.
by Snowglare :: Fri, 10/09/2009 - 2:58am

Your post is titled "Which Receivers To Start or Sit in Week 5." If you aren't offering advice, why say so? The implication is that a receiver's matchup makes him a better/worse start, if not a great/awful start, and that's rarely true. WRs are notoriously hard to predict on a week-to-week basis, and data from the first 3-4 games is notoriously unreliable.

It's more important to look at who's good, healthy, and playing well, and start them.

Re: Which Receivers To Start or Sit in Week 5
by kaptrap19 :: Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:17am

jeez, way to take my words literally, I added a note, just for you! Happy?

Login or register to post comments