Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

22 Feb 2010

Who Has The Most To Gain?

With the Combine rapidly approaching, who do you think has the most to gain with a great performance in Indy?

I'll knock the obvious one out of the way: Ndamukong Suh can put any speculation about Gerald McCoy going #1 to rest by showing up in shape and putting on an athletic show.

Any deep sleepers that could bust out? Anyone who might make it from a mid-second round grade into the first round by proverbially jumping out of the pool? Anyone you expect to light up the Speed Score charts?

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 22 Feb 2010

28 replies , Last at 05 Mar 2010, 5:28am by loanneP

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by stay firm (not verified) :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 1:12pm

Suh would be jumping from somewhere around 2-3 to somewhere around 1-2 with that. Most to gain in what sense?

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by hbh_uk :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 1:21pm

If Suh goes from 3 to 1 he will probably get himself an extra $5M in guaranteed money (this is a top-of-my-head estimate, fully prepared to have this number shot down...): that would be pretty good going.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by stay firm (not verified) :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 1:40pm

Sure, but there is almost always someone who shoots up from the late first/early second round based on a great combine and earns themselves 10 million+ more in guaranteed money. Suh simply doesn't have that much to gain.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by loanneP :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 5:28am

Speaking of most gain, I can say that The Hurt Locker movie gain deserving awards from the the BAFMA's. As an avid fan of the movie, I am happy for all of the cast. A similar suit might put the Hurt Locker in the hurt locker, and may even dampen it's chances at the Oscars. The suit, brought by an EOD veteran in Iraq, Jeffery Sarver, alleges that Mark Boal, the screenwriter, followed his unit, and not only stole the story, also used his former call sign Will James as the name of a character that did many of the same things he actually did. It might cost Boal more than a payday loans worth, and the film Oscar glory.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Dan :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 1:27pm

The Speed Score leaders at the Combine, based on their listed pre-combine 40 times and weights, are Jonathan Dwyer (116.7), LeGarrette Blount (111.5), Anthony Dixon (110.4), Toby Gerhart (109.7), and Ryan Mathews (109.2). All but Blount are projected to go between the late first and early third. They could all have a lot to gain, especially Gerhart and Mathews in the 40, and Blount in his interviews. Charles Scott (106.8) is another RB to watch, for his physical as much as his Speed Score (he failed his Senior Bowl physical, not healed yet from a broken collarbone). These guys are mostly big backs; speedier guys like Alfonso Smith (111.5) and LaMarcus Coker (110.4) didn't make the cut for the Combine and are projected as UFAs.

4
Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Sophandros :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 1:40pm

I think that Blount has more to gain from the interview portion of the combine than anyone else.

I would think that guys from less heralded programs stand more to gain from combine showings (think Chris Johnson a couple of years ago), so with that in mind, I'll go with a guy like Jeremy Williams. A great 40 time could get him into the second round, IMO.

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Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by pazz (not verified) :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 2:18pm

What would Jahvid Best have to run to score like CJ. I think they are basically the same size so 4.2? I've only seen You Tube stuff of CJ in college but i saw Best run the 100m in high school and he has always run like a video game in college, clearly the fastest player on the field. He needs a bigger crease though, CJ just seems a bit tougher or more confident or whatever.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Phil Osopher :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 2:25pm

at RB, Blount, obviously and Joe McKnight

at QB, Tebow and McCoy

at OLB/DE, Corey Wooton and Sergio Kindle, especially Kindle (I expect him to have great measurables at the combine and vault into the first round) and Jean Paul-Pierre will have combine stats "off-the-charts" (lol)

at ILB Brandon Spikes (although his 40 times will be slow, I think he will show strength and smarts 'chalkboard and play diagramming')

OL's I have no idea

S I have no idea but guarantee one of them busts through to middle first round that no one expected. This position always has a few of those as its a natural tweener position

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Sophandros :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 5:01pm

Good call on McKnight. If he surprises with his 40 time (like run in the high 4.3s), then someone is going to over value him.

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Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by loneweasel (not verified) :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 2:30pm

Taylor Mays will easily vault into top 10 if he can meet the (admittedly absurdly high) expectations of his combine numbers.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by big_jgke :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 3:43pm

Fatties who run fast, obviously.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by ChicagoRaider :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 5:08pm

Myron Rolle. After a year in England, there will be a lot of doubts about retained ability. If you were Rolle, would you figure it was time to medical school if you were drafted in the 6th round? What about the 2nd?

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Marko :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 5:21pm

I was going to say Myron Rolle, too, but for a different reason. If he can demonstrate his passion for the game, he can boost his draft stock. Apparently teams are concerned about the fact that he has other options in life and doesn't "need" football. They probably are afraid he might walk away from football and retire at an early age like Robert Smith did.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by commissionerleaf :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 5:31pm

Well, whatever WR, CB, or RB that runs the fastest 40 will go in the first round to Oakland. So whoever that is could go from the 3rd or 4th round to the mid first.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Tom Gower :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 7:22pm

Terence Cody, if he can produce a shirtless photo that doesn't require an NSFW warning and run a 40 without looking like Andre Smith did last year.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by loneweasel (not verified) :: Mon, 02/22/2010 - 9:30pm

He's not going to fall past the top half of 2nd. And unless he runs something ridiculous like a sub-5. in the 40, he has no chance of going above #20 or so.

Cody doesn't have much to gain at the combine. The only thing he needs is a reasonable weigh-in number, somewhere below 350.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Phil Osopher :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 4:27pm

I would be laughing if he went the other route and weighed in @ 420 or so. He could say he will eat the guards and centers of the other team.

This will up his intagibles and he too will be "off-the-charts"

Plus, I would love to see a true 400lber get drafted highly

Fun, fun, fun with mezomorphs

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by mjb :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 2:11am

I would look at the QBs from the smaller schools. Like can Armanti Edwards of Appalachian State prove that he can play QB in the NFL? Or will be be moved to WR like Josh Cribbs?

At TE I would be interested in seeing how Rob Gronkowski's physical goes. Because if his back checks out he should be the best TE in the Draft.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Brendan Scolari :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 5:49am

Better than Gresham?

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by mjb :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 2:22pm

Gronkowski and Gresham are essentially 1a and 1b. With each coming into the draft process with injury questions - Gresham with a knee, and Gronkowski with a back. The difference between the two is that Gresham is the better receiver and Gronkowski the better blocker. That is why I think Gronkowski is the better prospect (if his back checks out), he has good hands, and is already a good and willing blocker. If I remember correctly he was being compared to Jason Witten before the start of the CFB season.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Brendan Scolari :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 5:55am

As previously mentioned big running backs with questions about their speed like Toby Gerhart and LeGarrette Blount (obviously Blount's interviews are also really important). And if any of the smaller guys (Joe McKnight, Javhid Best, Dexter McCluster) runs below a 4.3 or around there they'll probably jump up 10-20 spots on draft boards.

Some of the more athletic pass rushers, if a guy like Jason Pierre-Paul can put up sick numbers at the combine he could be a top 10 pick instead of being more of a late first rounder.

Small school (non BCS) quarterbacks, and guys with arm strength questions marks like Pike and (possibly) Tebow.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by ChaosOnion (not verified) :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 4:21pm

Tebow has a great deal to gain by showing he can run routes and catch. I think he will forgo throwing at the combine for UF's pro day.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Jimmy :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 11:24am

Same as every year, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Sophandros :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 2:55pm

I think we have a winner.

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Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

22
Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Brendan Scolari :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 3:39pm

Nice.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by justanothersteve :: Tue, 02/23/2010 - 7:18pm

Not to mention the NFL Network, taking an otherwise nothing part of the off-season and turning it into another source for ad revenue.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by utvikefan (not verified) :: Wed, 02/24/2010 - 1:05am

Jimmy, you made my day. I am SOOOOO glad NFLN started covering the draft so I don't have to watch those two idiots and Merril Hoge yell at each other.

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Re: Who Has The Most To Gain?
by Phil Osopher :: Wed, 02/24/2010 - 5:44pm

Merril Hoge watched 800 hours of film on the NFL draft and he agrees that switching over to the NFLN is a must for any true fan.

He also says making the draft a 3 day event with the first, second and third, and the rest, is a fucking disgrace.

Yes, he was very irrate and they didn't even have time to bleep him.

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