23 Sep 2009
Taken from Game Of Inches
Sure saying "the crappy one" is a misnomer because I think he's good and I'm about to write a post about him, but this post is dedicated to the Giants wide out (we all know the Panthers receiver is fucking amazing, even if crappy Jake Delhomme is throwing to him).
Sure, it's easy to praise a guy who, after two weeks, is third in the NFL in receiving yards (well I'm going to do it anyway!) but I think he will keep this up all season. Right now Smith is 2nd of all receovers in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. That essentially means when Smith catches the ball, he is the second best receiver and 12th out of ALL receivers on average per play. But the key this year that I think will make him both a valuable fantasy wide receiver and a real one, is now he's getting thrown to.
This year, Smith is top 5 among wide outs in targets (24) and is tied for the league in receptions (16). Smith, yes only over two games, has a very good catch rate (76%)but he has shown to have a good catch rate in the past. Last year, Smith was one of only ten receivers to have a catch rate over 70%. So if he's getting the ball thrown to him a lot and has the ability to catch around 3 out of every four of them, he will then have a lot of reception and a lot of receptions means a lot of yards.
And I'm a big fan of receptions. People can quote efficiency all they want and it's helpful to a degree, but give me the guy who can actually catch the ball and make plays. Sure, guys like Devery Henderson are extremely good and efficient at what they do (although maybe he's starting to be a bad example because he's getting thrown to more and more) and more efficient than guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, but give me the later any day of the weel over Henderson. Now I'm not going to claim that Steve Smith is in the elite stratosphere and guys like Johnson, Fitzgerald or Randy Moss, but I think's coming darn close.
I also am a believer in reciever being consistent. For the most part what you see out of a reciever is what you get. Bernard Berrian probably won't gain over 1,000 yards and Wes Welker probably won't gain more than 4 TDs this year. It's obviously different with younger receivers because they need to prove themselves and develop. But once they do develop, I think very rarely will you see them get any better. And I think we're seeing the final stages of Smith's development. He's gotten used to playing at game level and he's getting used to starting- and doing very well.
At the minimum, I think Smith can be Wes Welker (fantasy wise). He can be a guy that racks up the yards but doesn't really score (Welker has 5 TDs in the past two years), which still has great value to it. But if I were a gambling man, I would put money that Smith can get at least 5 more TDs in 14 more games (assuming health). Now, I'm not sure how often he's getting looked to in the red zone and how often Eli Manning is looking to Boss or Manningham more than Smith to gain TDs and I think it's too early to tell that. But no matter, I can easily see Smith go to Hawaii this year.
3 replies , Last at 04 Oct 2009, 1:34am by Snowglare