Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Jul 2013

Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?

As far as I remember, we're not supposed to discuss specific KUBIAK rankings, so I understand if this is never answered or even deleted. But I was wondering about the low rankings for a pair of teammates who're ranked 58 and 83 by FPOB in the vanilla (i.e. fresh download, no scoring changes) version of KUBIAK. I realize that my high hopes for them are probably clouded by 'conventional wisdom', but to see them this low did surprise me. Is this based on strength of schedule? Or regression?

Posted by: Fion on 10 Jul 2013

13 replies , Last at 01 Aug 2013, 9:31pm by Dan

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by fb29 :: Wed, 07/10/2013 - 10:17am

You can talk about players. just "Please refrain from quoting the statistics at length"

I am assuming you are talking about Percy and Russell?

My concern with them this season is that the Seattle defense will be so good, that they really won't have to pass very much. That could be what KUBIAK sees, too. And I own them in a keeper league, so I am expecting WR2 and low-end QB1 this year, and hopefully SEA loses some key defensive players next year and SEA will actually need to score a lot. (any Seattle fans care to share which defensive studs are likely to be gone next year??)

That said, if Rice has trouble staying healthy, and Lynch misses a game here or there with back problems, and Percy stays healthy, he will be a monster this year. But KUBIAK doesn't project upside.

2
Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Aaron Schatz :: Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:04am

Compare Russell Wilson's projection to last year's actual stats and you will discover it is almost exactly the same. Everyone else is projecting that Seattle will become a pass-first offense, and we think they will still be run-first.

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by jayhawkco :: Mon, 07/22/2013 - 5:07pm

Does KUBIAK take into account first half of the season vs. second half splits?

Chris

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by bird jam :: Tue, 07/23/2013 - 11:12am

Is there any statistical credence to 1H/2H splits?

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by jayhawkco :: Tue, 07/23/2013 - 12:10pm

Not necessarily, but when talking about Russell Wilson, he was a rookie learning the ropes early on but over the 2nd half of the season, he was the 2nd highest scoring QB in my league's scoring. So, to say that his projected statistics this year are close to what his overall statistics were last year because they haven't changed from being a run-first team, I think that's somewhat misleading. I would tend to think that their style will be quite similar to the team that they became by the end of the year (i.e. Wilson scoring an s-ton of fantasy points), as opposed to just summing the entire season up and calling it a day.

Chris

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by bird jam :: Wed, 07/24/2013 - 9:22am

Wouldn't the defenses they face this year also adjust, now having a year's worth of film on him to prepare?

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Zheng :: Wed, 07/24/2013 - 8:39pm

But he's also had a full offseason to really learn the playbook, so I think that's a wash.

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by bird jam :: Thu, 07/25/2013 - 9:36am

I figure it's probably a wash too, and I'm guessing that's why they have approximately the same numbers for him this year. Remember that KUBIAK is generally a fairly conservative projection.

3
Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Fion :: Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:18am

That's a good point - I was pretty high on him, and was surprised to see him ranked so low. But going back and looking at the stats from last season...yeah, that's exactly where he was.

4
Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Matty2D :: Wed, 07/10/2013 - 7:53pm

I was shocked to see those 2 ranked low as well, but not as much as I was with Steven Jackson, especially considering the running backs going above him in these rankings.

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Zheng :: Wed, 07/10/2013 - 9:44pm

SJ's projected receptions seem kind of low given that the coaching staff has been bragging all offseason about getting him heavily involved in the passing game. Then again, if he's competing for targets with Julio, Roddy, and Gonzo, maybe it isn't so low.

For rushing performance, doesn't he turn 30 any second now?

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Matty2D :: Wed, 07/10/2013 - 9:58pm

He is turning 30 soon, but for me I just don't see him falling off the cliff just yet. Turner was 30 last year and fell off the cliff, but let's face it, Jackson is in way way way better shape than what Michael Turner was in. Sure, Jackson has a ton of mileage on him, but a change in scenery for a Super Bowl contender, I don't see how at a bare minimum he can't put up at least Michael Turner numbers from last year. It is a pass first offense, but they still run when they get in close. I feel as if these projections are more in line with numbers he would put up another year in the St. Louis offense.

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Re: Why the KUBIAK hate for, um, these two specific players?
by Dan :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 9:31pm

From the "Running List of KUBIAK Changes" thread (posted here because that thread is not to be cluttered with discussion):

"SEA QB: Slight increase to Russell Wilson (less Percy Harvin means less Percy Harvin in backfield equals a few more passes)."

Apparently KUBIAK thinks that Harvin is bad for Seattle's total passing numbers, so his injury increases Wilson's projection.

This sounds crazy to me. Harvin-in-the-backfield is a pass-heavy formation; I'd think that more Harvin --> more of that formation --> more passing & less running. Plus Harvin's WR screens would eat into the running game, and his YAC would be good news for the QB. And the general phenomenon that better receivers leads to more passing yardage. Were Harvin's 25 projected carries really enough to counter all of that?

Is there any data to support the prediction that having a player like Harvin would lead to fewer passing yards for the QB?