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25 Nov 2003

Week 12 Team Efficiency Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Here are the team efficiency ratings after Week 12, measured by our proprietary Value Over Average (VOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average.  (Explained further here.)

Moving up: TAM (from #5 to #2), PIT (from #17 to #14), BAL (from #21 to #17)
Moving down: STL (from #4 to #7), CLE (From #12 to #16), CAR (from #15 to #18)

Is it me, or are 80 percent of the commercials on television right now co-promotions with The Cat in the Hat?  I thought it definitely had gone too far when they showed the Cat in the Hat throwing the ball through the tire and asking his doctor about Levitra.

In 2002, through Week 12, the Kansas City Chiefs were only 5-6 -- and they were lucky to have won five games.  If everyone in Cleveland had remembered to leave their helmets on, the Chiefs would have been 4-7.  Nevertheless, the Chiefs were #7 in DVOA at that point in the 2002 season, +13.2%.  They ranked ahead of a number of teams with better records, including Miami, San Francisco, and Green Bay.  The Chiefs finished the season with three more wins to end up 8-8, but with improved defense in the season's final five weeks they climbed to #4 in the DVOA rankings.  In fact, adding in special teams, Kansas City and Philadelphia would have been virtually tied for the #2 spot behind the two teams that eventually made the Super Bowl, Tampa Bay and Oakland.

So, while DVOA is certainly not perfect, it does see things.  And right now, as crazy as it sounds, it still sees Tampa Bay as the best team in the NFC.  I've gone over the reasons for Tampa's losing record a number of times this year, but if the season re-started today and every team replayed the schedule from scratch I would expect them to win the NFC South.  The end of their schedule should be very easy, and the Keyshawn Johnson dismissal may be the big emotional event the team needed to keep them from giving up on the season.  Even if they lose to Tennessee in Week 17, they should finish 9-7.  The key game is New Orleans, a game they should win but may not because the Saints seem to give the Bucs fits.  If they do finish with four wins in five games, that may be good enough to make the playoffs -- unless the second place team in the NFC North (Green Bay or Minnesota) also finishes 9-7, because those teams have better conference records.  

Angry Titans fans who expect to see their team at #2 on the rankings instead of Tampa Bay should note that on the second table, Tennessee is the #2 team in the NFL according to "weighted VOA," which adjusts VOA to give earlier games less weight.

They called the movie Any Given Sunday because in the NFL, anything can happen.  You come to expect the unexpected.  But do any of this year's unexpected performances beat the colossal shock of watching Baltimore -- BALTIMORE! -- score 44 points, almost entirely through the air?


Weeks 1-11 Week 12
Baltimore offense rush DVOA -9% -49%
Baltimore offense pass DVOA -50% +49%

A few changes week in the way I calculate the ratings: while PAST SCHEDULE is still based on the total season-long VOA ratings for teams played in Weeks 1-12, FUTURE SCHEDULE is now based on the weighted VOA ratings for teams played in Weeks 13-17.  To give examples of what this means, the teams playing Tennessee (who are better recently) are now listed with slightly harder schedules, while teams playing Seattle (who were better early) are now listed with slightly easier schedules.

More commentary to come later today (maybe).

  • Opponent adjustments are now at full strength and will be for the rest of the season.
  • As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
  • All numbers are adjusted for opponent quality except for NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA.

Here are the ratings through Week 12:
 


TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
NON-ADJ
TOTAL VOA
W-L
OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
SPECIAL
VOA
S.T.
RANK
1 KAN 39.0% 1 43.0% 10-1 25.3% 1 -7.8% 10 5.9% 1
2 TAM 23.7% 5 24.2% 5-6 0.2% 13 -25.8% 1 -2.3% 29
3 IND 22.5% 2 22.6% 9-2 23.0% 2 0.6% 17 0.1% 20
4 TEN 21.7% 6 25.4% 9-2 17.4% 4 -3.3% 14 1.0% 10
5 SEA 19.1% 3 26.7% 7-4 19.6% 3 1.1% 19 0.6% 14
6 SFO 17.2% 7 15.7% 5-6 13.6% 6 -4.8% 13 -1.1% 27
7 STL 16.5% 4 23.7% 8-3 -4.5% 20 -23.8% 2 -2.9% 30
8 DAL 14.5% 9 23.2% 8-3 -6.4% 21 -20.6% 3 0.3% 17
9 NWE 14.1% 8 15.4% 9-2 0.2% 12 -13.7% 6 0.1% 19
10 DEN 13.6% 10 18.6% 6-5 -0.9% 16 -13.4% 7 1.1% 9
11 MIN 9.3% 11 20.8% 7-4 15.3% 5 5.2% 22 -0.8% 24
12 GNB 7.9% 13 2.7% 6-5 9.4% 8 2.3% 20 0.8% 12
13 OAK 6.4% 14 0.9% 3-8 3.2% 11 -1.9% 15 1.4% 8
14 PIT 3.9% 17 -2.1% 4-7 -1.8% 17 -5.1% 12 0.6% 13
15 PHI 3.3% 16 5.7% 8-3 4.9% 10 3.6% 21 2.0% 6
16 CLE 0.6% 12 -4.7% 4-7 -8.8% 24 -9.6% 9 -0.3% 21
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
NON-ADJ
TOTAL VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
SPECIAL
VOA
S.T.
RANK
17 BAL -0.2% 21 -2.7% 6-5 -23.3% 31 -18.1% 5 5.0% 2
18 CAR -1.4% 15 -4.7% 8-3 -3.4% 19 1.0% 18 3.0% 4
19 NYG -1.9% 18 -5.6% 4-7 -3.4% 18 -1.8% 16 -0.3% 22
20 MIA -3.8% 19 -0.8% 7-4 -21.2% 30 -18.6% 4 -1.1% 26
21 NYJ -4.1% 20 -4.4% 4-7 13.5% 7 19.6% 32 2.0% 7
22 BUF -5.3% 23 -11.1% 4-7 -16.2% 28 -10.6% 8 0.3% 16
23 CIN -6.0% 22 0.0% 6-5 7.0% 9 9.4% 25 -3.5% 31
24 WAS -8.3% 24 -9.8% 4-7 -0.5% 15 8.1% 24 0.3% 15
25 JAC -9.8% 25 -10.1% 2-9 -11.2% 25 -5.5% 11 -4.1% 32
26 SDG -16.7% 27 -25.0% 2-9 -0.5% 14 15.3% 30 -0.9% 25
27 HOU -18.3% 28 -23.9% 4-7 -6.8% 22 14.2% 29 2.8% 5
28 NOR -20.7% 26 -17.8% 5-6 -8.6% 23 12.9% 28 0.9% 11
29 ATL -26.2% 29 -31.5% 2-9 -14.2% 26 12.2% 27 0.2% 18
30 CHI -26.4% 30 -25.4% 4-7 -19.6% 29 9.9% 26 3.2% 3
31 DET -31.7% 31 -34.6% 3-8 -25.5% 32 5.7% 23 -0.5% 23
32 ARI -37.8% 32 -40.6% 3-8 -16.1% 27 19.5% 31 -2.2% 28

  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of past opponents, while FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of upcoming opponents.  Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • The PAST SCHEDULE number will differ from the difference between DVOA and (non-adjusted) VOA because schedule strength is based on the opponent's total efficiency rating, while opponent adjustments to VOA take into account the situations faced within each specific game.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA combines the team's DVOA performance from each game.  The past four weeks are each weighted at 100%, while each week before that is weighted 5% lower, beginning with Week 1 at 65%.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance.  Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

TEAM

TOTAL
DVOA

W-L
PAST
SCHEDULE
RANK FUTURE
SCHEDULE
RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK VARIANCE RANK
1 KAN 42.0% 10-1 -0.7% 22 -11.5% 29 44.1% 1 19.5% 21
2 TAM 23.7% 5-6 0.5% 17 -11.9% 30 25.3% 3 32.3% 5
3 IND 24.8% 9-2 -2.5% 27 1.6% 18 24.5% 4 22.3% 16
4 TEN 22.2% 9-2 -3.9% 28 2.8% 15 27.0% 2 24.2% 14
5 SEA 24.2% 7-4 -7.8% 32 1.0% 19 18.9% 6 17.6% 24
6 SFO 20.0% 5-6 0.1% 20 -4.5% 22 18.2% 7 36.5% 3
7 STL 24.0% 8-3 -5.9% 29 -2.6% 21 19.3% 5 25.6% 11
8 DAL 14.6% 8-3 -6.9% 30 -6.6% 27 17.0% 9 24.2% 13
9 NWE 15.6% 9-2 1.1% 15 -0.5% 20 18.2% 8 20.3% 19
10 DEN 12.3% 6-5 -2.3% 26 16.8% 1 15.0% 10 26.1% 9
11 MIN 8.1% 7-4 -7.4% 31 2.6% 16 9.0% 13 25.5% 12
12 GNB 5.8% 6-5 3.8% 7 -12.3% 31 9.8% 12 19.5% 20
13 OAK 3.9% 3-8 3.5% 9 3.9% 12 5.0% 15 12.0% 31
14 PIT -1.6% 4-7 7.7% 1 -4.8% 23 11.6% 11 21.8% 17
15 PHI -1.5% 8-3 -0.7% 23 4.5% 11 5.0% 14 14.5% 28
16 CLE 6.4% 4-7 4.2% 3 9.8% 4 0.6% 17 34.8% 4
TEAM

TOTAL
DVOA

W-L
PAST
SCHEDULE
RANK FUTURE
SCHEDULE
RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK VARIANCE RANK
17 BAL -4.9% 6-5 1.7% 13 5.9% 9 1.7% 16 19.2% 22
18 CAR 0.2% 8-3 0.2% 19 -21.1% 32 -0.6% 18 10.6% 32
19 NYG -3.6% 4-7 3.8% 6 -5.1% 24 -2.5% 20 30.6% 6
20 MIA -4.1% 7-4 -0.6% 21 5.2% 10 -2.0% 19 25.9% 10
21 NYJ -4.5% 4-7 1.2% 14 9.3% 5 -5.9% 21 13.6% 30
22 BUF -7.9% 4-7 3.9% 5 7.0% 7 -8.1% 23 49.5% 1
23 CIN -5.3% 6-5 0.4% 18 10.3% 3 -6.0% 22 14.4% 29
24 WAS -10.0% 4-7 2.9% 12 -6.2% 25 -10.3% 24 27.2% 8
25 JAC -10.1% 2-9 3.5% 8 -6.4% 26 -11.1% 25 15.1% 26
26 SDG -16.4% 2-9 3.3% 10 7.0% 8 -18.8% 26 23.6% 15
27 HOU -18.1% 4-7 4.2% 4 7.1% 6 -21.9% 27 18.3% 23
28 NOR -13.5% 5-6 -0.9% 24 -6.8% 28 -23.3% 28 21.5% 18
29 ATL -25.3% 2-9 3.3% 11 3.3% 14 -30.4% 30 30.3% 7
30 CHI -27.6% 4-7 -1.0% 25 2.1% 17 -27.0% 29 14.7% 27
31 DET -31.6% 3-8 0.6% 16 10.8% 2 -35.7% 31 16.2% 25
32 ARI -46.9% 3-8 5.3% 2 3.7% 13 -42.1% 32 46.4% 2

PREVIOUS WEEKS:

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 25 Nov 2003

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