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» Clutch Encounters: Week 3

New respect for Nick Foles after another GWD. Also: four-minute blues for Browns, glory-hole day for Dallas, Jets seeing red and Bruce Arians' magic beans.

26 Oct 2004

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 7 of 2004, measured by our proprietary Value Over Average (VOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average.  (Explained further here.)

Moving UpCIN (29 to 20), ARI (23 to 15), KC (13 to 5), BAL (10 to 3), MIN (17 to 10), DET (18 to 11)

Moving DownNYG (5 to 14), ATL (11 to 19), STL (20 to 27), SEA (3 to 9), BUF (12 to 18)

Last week I wrote that Philadelphia and New England were on a path to play each other in Super Bowl XXXIX.  This week, both teams won to stay undefeated and are now in a virtual tie for the top spot in total DVOA.  Those two teams aside, Week 7 wins seemed to come in three types: unexpected wins, big wins, and unexpected big wins.  That means that the Eagles and Patriots have pulled out to a bigger lead over the rest of the league, and that the teams below them look a lot different compared to last week.

This week's unexpected wins not only have an effect on the ratings of the teams that won and lost, but also on the ratings of the teams that played those teams in the past.  Indianapolis actually moves up in the rankings despite losing, because their win against Green Bay now looks more impressive.  San Diego actually moves down in the rankings despite winning, because their performances against Atlanta and Tennessee now look less impressive.

I'm sure there is a lot more I can say about this week's ratings, but I've been under the weather lately and I'd prefer to save my strength for the long-awaited special teams article that I promised for the end of the week, so no extended commentary this week.  I'll let the readers find the interesting tidbits in the data.

* * * * *

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value.  SPECIAL DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.  NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.  Opponent adjustments are currently at 70 percent strength and will gradually increase each week until Week 10.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.  Player stats pages will be updated later today.


TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
NON-ADJ
TOTAL VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
SPECIAL
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 PHI 44.7% 1 42.2% 6-0 32.4% 3 -0.8% 14 11.5% 2
2 NE 44.7% 2 36.8% 6-0 32.3% 4 -14.0% 4 -1.7% 23
3 BAL 22.9% 10 25.9% 4-2 -9.4% 22 -20.9% 2 11.4% 3
4 IND 21.5% 7 20.8% 4-2 35.8% 1 12.3% 25 -2.0% 24
5 KC 21.0% 13 21.3% 2-4 29.1% 5 -2.1% 13 -10.3% 32
6 PIT 19.7% 8 26.9% 5-1 9.0% 11 -6.9% 10 3.8% 7
7 DEN 16.9% 4 20.5% 5-2 6.3% 14 -10.6% 6 -0.1% 16
8 NYJ 13.8% 6 26.5% 5-1 25.7% 6 11.0% 23 -0.8% 18
9 SEA 12.8% 3 25.1% 3-3 -7.5% 20 -22.4% 1 -2.1% 25
10 MIN 12.5% 17 17.0% 5-1 34.0% 2 16.5% 26 -4.9% 29
11 DET 11.2% 18 12.1% 4-2 -1.0% 17 -8.1% 9 4.1% 6
12 SD 11.2% 9 22.0% 4-3 14.9% 9 8.3% 22 4.6% 5
13 HOU 6.9% 15 2.5% 3-3 8.4% 12 2.8% 18 1.3% 13
14 NYG 5.5% 5 17.3% 4-2 6.9% 13 -3.4% 12 -4.7% 28
15 ARI 2.7% 23 6.3% 2-4 -11.0% 24 -12.9% 5 0.8% 15
16 JAC 1.6% 16 -6.0% 5-2 3.8% 15 4.8% 19 2.6% 11
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
NON-ADJ
TOTAL VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
SPECIAL
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 DAL -4.6% 14 -8.1% 2-4 13.9% 10 18.0% 28 -0.5% 17
18 BUF -4.8% 12 -10.4% 1-5 -13.1% 28 -5.6% 11 2.7% 10
19 ATL -5.3% 11 -0.7% 5-2 -11.4% 25 1.3% 16 7.4% 4
20 CIN -5.5% 29 -13.8% 2-4 -4.1% 19 4.9% 20 3.5% 8
21 TB -5.9% 19 -5.2% 2-5 -12.9% 27 -8.2% 8 -1.1% 19
22 GB -8.7% 24 -12.7% 3-4 15.0% 8 24.8% 30 1.2% 14
23 NO -9.4% 26 -0.1% 3-4 2.2% 16 24.9% 31 13.4% 1
24 CLE -10.3% 22 -15.4% 3-4 -1.5% 18 11.8% 24 3.0% 9
25 WAS -12.4% 21 -14.6% 2-4 -23.2% 31 -16.7% 3 -5.9% 30
26 CHI -15.5% 27 -18.0% 1-5 -13.7% 29 0.4% 15 -1.5% 21
27 STL -16.0% 20 -12.5% 4-3 22.4% 7 32.2% 32 -6.2% 31
28 CAR -17.6% 25 -25.3% 1-5 -11.6% 26 2.0% 17 -4.0% 26
29 TEN -24.9% 28 -20.9% 2-5 -16.5% 30 6.7% 21 -1.7% 22
30 OAK -30.3% 30 -33.0% 2-5 -9.0% 21 16.6% 27 -4.7% 27
31 MIA -30.7% 32 -34.1% 1-6 -41.5% 32 -8.8% 7 2.0% 12
32 SF -33.6% 31 -41.1% 1-5 -9.4% 23 22.7% 29 -1.4% 20

  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played so far, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents remaining on the schedule, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance.  Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close.  It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.  It is based on the number of games a team has played so far, so teams which have not had their bye will appear higher.


TEAM TOTAL
VOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VARIANCE RANK
1 PHI 44.7% 6-0 5.4 2 -2.4% 22 -1.6% 23 8.7% 26
2 NE 44.7% 6-0 5.6 1 2.5% 12 -2.3% 24 13.4% 20
3 BAL 22.9% 4-2 3.9 9 1.3% 14 9.9% 3 19.6% 12
4 IND 21.5% 4-2 4.2 5 -2.7% 23 6.9% 8 2.8% 32
5 KC 21.0% 2-4 3.9 8 4.2% 8 0.5% 17 24.3% 7
6 PIT 19.7% 5-1 3.8 11 -9.8% 31 10.0% 1 11.4% 23
7 DEN 16.9% 5-2 4.3 3 -3.7% 28 -4.5% 27 22.2% 8
8 NYJ 13.8% 5-1 4.1 6 -3.1% 26 4.8% 12 4.9% 29
9 SEA 12.8% 3-3 2.8 25 -2.9% 24 -8.4% 31 19.8% 11
10 MIN 12.5% 5-1 3.9 7 -0.5% 18 1.8% 15 17.6% 14
11 DET 11.2% 4-2 3.9 10 4.6% 7 -1.5% 22 41.7% 2
12 SD 11.2% 4-3 4.3 4 -1.2% 20 -0.6% 19 18.8% 13
13 HOU 6.9% 3-3 3.3 16 0.1% 16 1.7% 16 9.4% 25
14 NYG 5.5% 4-2 3.2 17 3.3% 11 5.9% 10 27.1% 4
15 ARI 2.7% 2-4 3.1 20 -1.1% 19 -6.5% 30 25.9% 6
16 JAC 1.6% 5-2 3.7 12 8.9% 3 -2.5% 25 8.5% 27
TEAM TOTAL
VOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VARIANCE RANK
17 DAL -4.6% 2-4 3.3 14 1.1% 15 9.9% 2 14.1% 18
18 BUF -4.8% 1-5 3.0 22 3.7% 10 -0.2% 18 14.5% 17
19 ATL -5.3% 5-2 3.4 13 -3.0% 25 -4.8% 28 26.8% 5
20 CIN -5.5% 2-4 2.8 24 5.4% 6 8.1% 6 12.8% 22
21 TB -5.9% 2-5 3.3 15 -7.7% 29 -6.0% 29 10.8% 24
22 GB -8.7% 3-4 3.0 21 -3.5% 27 5.1% 11 41.9% 1
23 NO -9.4% 3-4 3.1 19 -8.2% 30 -0.8% 20 4.1% 30
24 CLE -10.3% 3-4 3.1 18 10.1% 2 8.7% 4 21.2% 9
25 WAS -12.4% 2-4 2.0 28 -1.3% 21 8.6% 5 13.6% 19
26 CHI -15.5% 1-5 2.2 27 6.9% 4 -1.3% 21 3.2% 31
27 STL -16.0% 4-3 2.8 23 -9.9% 32 6.0% 9 13.3% 21
28 CAR -17.6% 1-5 2.5 26 13.3% 1 -10.0% 32 7.4% 28
29 TEN -24.9% 2-5 1.6 30 2.0% 13 3.1% 14 38.4% 3
30 OAK -30.3% 2-5 1.8 29 6.4% 5 3.9% 13 20.8% 10
31 MIA -30.7% 1-6 1.5 31 3.9% 9 7.2% 7 15.5% 16
32 SF -33.6% 1-5 1.5 32 -0.2% 17 -4.3% 26 16.6% 15

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 26 Oct 2004

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