This year's update to the playoff drive stats show that the football gods may have been on Peyton Manning's side this time. Also: Cam Newton and Alex Smith enter the mix, and why we should be comparing Andrew Luck to Dan Marino.
10 Jan 2006
by Aaron Schatz
For the first time this year, we are continuing with DVOA into the playoffs, so that we can continue to do the FOXSports.com power rankings. Those rankings with extended commentary are found here.
The headline on FOXSports.com is "PATRIOTS INADEQUATE" and states, "While the Pats get respect from their competition, they won't get it from Aaron Schatz, who says that New England's postseason win streak is overhyped."
It needs to be known that I didn't write this. I don't write the headlines, and I don't write the excerpts. This is a monumental misunderstanding of what I wrote in today's Patriots comment. I have emailed FOX and asked them to change the excerpt to something about the Panthers. I also asked that I be allowed to issue a correction. I never, ever, ever said that the Patriots are inadequate or that they could not beat Denver. All I said was that there is no point in talking about a 10-game postseason win streak because the 3 Super Bowls are impressive enough on their own and the win streak doesn't add anything to the accomplishment.
Patriots fans who read this discussion thread and are active on message boards, please post this apology to Patriots fans. I'm going to ask FOX that I be allowed to write headlines and excerpts for my articles from now on, rather than having a web producer write the headlines. I'm really angry about this.
Here's what you should know about the DVOA table below:
The commentary also includes some discussion of similarity scores for both Eli Manning and Chris Simms. I've printed the stats for the similar players below.
One more note: If you are wondering what happened to some of the notations on our discussion threads like number of comments and time last commented, we think these are big reason for our recent slowdowns, so we've removed them for now in an effort to keep the site running as smoothly as possible.
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To save people some time, we remind everyone to put their angry troll hatred into the official zlionsfan angry troll hatred Mad Libs form:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
I'm not going to bother to run the whole DVOA explanation; if you are new to the website, you can read about it here. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
The three (non-playoff teams) missing from this table are Kansas City at #3, San Diego at #8, and Minnesota at #13.
Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the first round of the playoffs. Yes, DVOA believes that Tampa Bay outplayed Washington. (This is true even without the opponent adjustments.)
Here are the most similar players to Eli Manning over two seasons (since 1978). I limited the list to players 25 years old or younger, with at least a 700 similarity score in year one and a 750 similarity score in year two. Players are in order by harmonic mean of the two similarity scores.
Now here are the most similar players to Chris Simms over a single season (since 1978). This one I limited to players with either two or three years of experience, which removed Bernie Kosar and Tim Rattay. I also removed second seasons by the same player, as the list originally had two Neil O'Donnell seasons and two Charlie Batch seasons. By the way, can you guess who shows up on the list? Ah, genetics.
1987 players in both tables have their seasons pro-rated for the strike.
183 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2006, 2:24am by Christian X