Comparing the final Football Outsiders F/+ projections to the AP poll and conventional wisdom.
24 Jan 2011
by Aaron Schatz
This one will be short; there's not much reason to run a big DVOA table with 32 teams when there are only two left. For those curious, Pittsburgh's weighted DVOA is now 37.9%, while Green Bay is at 30.0%.
Here are the ratings for the Conference Championship games:
The first half-second half splits for both games are pretty astonishing.
|Offensive DVOA by Half in 2010 Conf. Championships|
One interesting note is how Chicago dominated Green Bay on special teams despite a big day from Green Bay punter Tim Masthay. Green Bay's short kickoffs, attempting to prevent a return touchdown, were a big part of that. Chicago even had better value than Green Bay on punts because of a fumble by Tramon Williams, plus a 22-yard punt return which the Packers allowed to Earl Bennett on a booming 65-yard punt by Masthay.
The resulting Super Bowl of Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh may be the most evenly matched Super Bowl in history. Our official FO Premium pick will be up later this week, but the playoff odds report lists the odds as 50.6 percent Pittsburgh, 49.4 percent Green Bay.
62 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2011, 5:38pm by Will Allen