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04 Sep 2013

2013 DVOA Projections

by Aaron Schatz

The time has come for our annual preseason DVOA projections, updated from the projections that gave us the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2013. Our DVOA projections suggest a Packers-Patriots Super Bowl, the same matchup forecast by last year's DVOA projections. The mean win projections suggest a Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl, the same matchup forecast by last year's actual in-season DVOA ratings.

We must start with the requisite link to an explanation of DVOA. For anyone new to our site, DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and measures a team's performance on every play of the season compared to league average in the same situation, adjusted for opponent. I know a lot of people may be coming here from various message boards and this is just going to look like a jumble of pointless numbers. Trust me, there is a method to the madness, and over the past dozen seasons past DVOA ratings -- as well as these multivariable-based DVOA projections -- have been a far more accurate predictor of future performance than wins or points.

Offense, defense, and special teams DVOA are all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams over the past decade. The equations include a number of variables based on performance over the past two seasons in different splits (by down, passing vs. rushing, red zone vs. whole field) plus variables based on recent draft history, injury history, offensive and defensive pace, coaching experience, quarterback experience, and even weather. Strength of schedule was then figured based on the average projected total DVOA of all 16 opponents for 2013, rather than based on last year's performance.

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The major difference between this year's preseason forecast and the forecast produced three months ago for Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 is unfortunately caused by an error. As one step towards producing team offensive projections, I create a quarterback projection that does not take into account any team variables. (This allows us to account, to give one example, for the fact that Carson Palmer should be expected to improve the Arizona offense.) The variable I used for Russell Wilson in the Seattle projection was pasted incorrectly, leading to a Seattle projection that was a little bit lower than it should have been. Fixing this moves Seattle a bit higher, making the Seahawks one of the top projected teams in the league. Don't worry San Francisco fans, we're still projecting you into the wild card.

The quarterback variable is also an important one explaining why a couple of teams are lower than previously projected. Despite the recent success of rookie quarterbacks, our "quarterback projection without team variables" numbers projected E.J. Manuel a little bit below Kevin Kolb and Terrelle Pryor significantly below Matt Flynn. Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez are pretty much a wash.

If your response to that paragraph was "the idea that Kevin Kolb might have been better than E.J. Manuel is insane," then please remember the following: The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. A few of them look strange to us." As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance. If you are looking for subjective projections, tomorrow we will be running our usual staff predictions article where we all talk about where we think the numbers are wrong.

The first postseason odds report of the 2013 season is also online, and I've added the playoff odds and Super Bowl championship odds to the table below. The mean wins forecast produced by our season simulation seems very conservative. In fact, this forecast is even more conservative than the forecast you found in Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 because due to time constraints, I did not have the opportunity to adjust our win projections to better reflect the recent historical distribution of wins in the NFL (fewer teams between 7-9 and 9-7 than you would expect from a normal distribution, and more teams around 12-4 or 4-12). However, this kind of conservative forecast generally leads to smaller errors than a forecast that looks more like a real set of final standings with the best team around 14-2 and the worst team around 2-14. Obviously, the best team in the league will likely have more than 11 wins, and the worst team will have more than 10 losses.

Surprisingly, despite slightly more conservative projections for mean wins, the new forecast raises the playoff odds of the top teams; we now have four teams with over 80 percent chance of making the playoffs instead of just the two we listed in Football Outsiders Almanac 2013.

Projected division champions are colored in light yellow. Projected wild card teams are colored in light blue.


TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
TOTAL
RANK
MEAN
WINS
OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
SPECIAL
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
SCHED SCHED
RANK
PLAYOFF
ODDS
S.B. WIN
ODDS
NE 27.4% 1 10.4 24.1% 2 1.2% 20 4.6% 2 0.4% 17 86.4% 16.4%
GB 23.5% 2 10.3 25.4% 1 0.0% 15 -2.0% 28 0.2% 20 80.6% 12.4%
SEA 21.0% 3 10.6 18.3% 4 -2.4% 9 0.3% 14 -3.0% 25 82.7% 11.6%
DEN 19.8% 4 10.7 21.2% 3 1.3% 21 -0.1% 16 -4.5% 30 88.6% 13.5%
WAS 18.6% 5 10.0 16.0% 6 -3.2% 8 -0.6% 20 -0.8% 22 73.2% 9.0%
CAR 15.5% 6 9.4 8.8% 9 -6.0% 3 0.8% 11 1.5% 11 59.6% 5.1%
SF 14.9% 7 9.4 10.6% 8 -3.5% 7 0.8% 10 1.1% 14 58.9% 5.5%
BAL 12.4% 8 9.3 11.2% 7 0.0% 16 1.2% 9 1.5% 12 63.5% 5.5%
NO 7.7% 9 8.5 16.3% 5 7.4% 31 -1.2% 23 2.7% 4 40.1% 2.3%
HOU 5.9% 10 9.1 3.6% 13 -2.2% 10 0.2% 15 -4.2% 29 67.2% 4.1%
CIN 5.3% 11 8.8 2.4% 14 -0.6% 12 2.3% 4 -0.2% 21 53.5% 2.9%
TB 4.3% 12 8.2 1.7% 15 -5.5% 4 -3.0% 30 3.3% 3 34.0% 1.5%
ATL 4.1% 13 7.7 6.6% 11 2.4% 24 -0.2% 17 6.3% 1 25.3% 1.0%
PIT 3.0% 14 8.6 -4.7% 19 -9.3% 2 -1.5% 26 -1.1% 23 48.7% 2.1%
NYG 2.4% 15 8.1 6.7% 10 1.1% 19 -3.2% 31 2.3% 6 32.4% 1.5%
CHI -1.1% 16 7.9 -15.6% 30 -9.6% 1 5.0% 1 1.5% 10 29.5% 1.2%
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
TOTAL
RANK
MEAN
WINS
OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
SPECIAL
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
SCHED SCHED
RANK
PLAYOFF
ODDS
S.B. WIN
ODDS
DET -2.6% 17 7.5 5.1% 12 3.6% 27 -4.1% 32 1.9% 8 22.8% 0.5%
PHI -3.5% 18 7.8 -3.9% 18 -0.1% 14 0.4% 13 0.3% 18 27.2% 0.7%
DAL -6.8% 19 7.0 -1.3% 16 4.6% 29 -0.9% 22 0.6% 16 14.9% 0.3%
IND -7.1% 20 7.5 -3.2% 17 3.5% 26 -0.4% 19 -5.3% 32 31.1% 0.6%
NYJ -7.1% 21 7.3 -13.9% 28 -5.4% 5 1.4% 7 0.9% 15 26.2% 0.5%
SD -7.4% 22 7.4 -6.3% 20 1.8% 22 0.6% 12 -3.8% 26 26.7% 0.5%
MIA -9.0% 23 6.5 -11.6% 25 -3.8% 6 -1.2% 24 2.4% 5 14.5% 0.2%
CLE -10.2% 24 7.0 -12.0% 26 -0.7% 11 1.2% 8 0.3% 19 18.9% 0.4%
ARI -11.2% 25 6.4 -9.6% 22 0.8% 18 -0.8% 21 1.4% 13 8.6% 0.2%
MIN -14.8% 26 5.7 -9.9% 23 2.4% 25 -2.5% 29 6.1% 2 4.9% 0.1%
BUF -14.9% 27 6.5 -13.5% 27 -0.5% 13 -1.9% 27 1.6% 9 14.3% 0.1%
OAK -16.7% 28 6.5 -19.8% 32 0.6% 17 3.6% 3 -2.7% 24 13.6% 0.1%
KC -16.9% 29 6.8 -9.3% 21 9.2% 32 1.6% 5 -4.0% 27 16.6% 0.2%
STL -17.3% 30 6.0 -14.7% 29 2.2% 23 -0.3% 18 2.0% 7 5.4% 0.0%
TEN -17.4% 31 6.5 -11.4% 24 4.5% 28 -1.4% 25 -4.0% 28 16.0% 0.1%
JAC -22.0% 32 6.3 -17.2% 31 6.2% 30 1.4% 6 -4.7% 31 14.1% 0.1%

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 04 Sep 2013

172 comments, Last at 23 Oct 2013, 11:42pm by fb cash study

Comments

1
by Alexander :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 3:58pm

Carolina is certainly a surprise? What has them looking so hot?

2
by DEW (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 3:59pm

And Atlanta looking so lousy.

5
by Scotty B. (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:10pm

Yeah, I don't get it. I know Atlanta has a tough schedule, but the offense alone should account for 8 wins. If the defense steps up at all I see 10-11.

Still, this is a little scary since FO is more right than I prefer to admit.

Play the games!!

26
by Bay Area Bengal (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 6:16pm

Barnwell has been doing a team-by-team analysis over on Grantland, and his argument for Carolina's resurgence hinges on the Panthers' "bad luck" in close games.

As defined by FO, close games are games decided by 7 points or fewer, and this is a metric that typically has high season-to-season variance. Simply put, if a team plays 100 games against evenly matched teams, it's likely to go 50-50. If the game score is close at the end, it' was probably an even match-up, so when a team goes on a streak (good or bad) in close games one season, they are likely to regress to the mean the following season.

Last year, the Panthers were 1-7 in close games, so simple regression to the mean will probably boost their record by a couple of wins.

Carolina also had a top-10 weighted DVOA last year, including a top 10 offense, and they've upgraded their defense through the draft.

I'm still not sold, though. I like Cam Newton and I think Steve Smith is always overdue for a big season and a deep playoff run, but I'm not sure this is the year.

27
by BJR :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 6:36pm

It's principally the defence where FO loves the Panthers. Certainly the projected front seven looks utterly dominant, the secondary less so.

38
by CraigoMc (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 10:41pm

Carolina's offensive DVOA projection is higher than the defensive, actually.

32
by Yaguar :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 7:26pm

Panthers opponents were 35/37 on FG attempts. That's just nuts.

Typical sports message board idiots see stuff like this, don't realize what's happening, and concoct elaborate narratives about how Cam Newton isn't a "leader."

DVOA just shrugs and says "well, that won't happen again."

57
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 9:16am

Not as nuts as you might think. Opponents only attempted 5 FGs longer than 50 yards against the Panthers, which is about where kicks become 50/50. Inside of 50, kickers, league-wide, are 87%. Carolina's opponents were 93% on these -- but man there were a lot of <30 yard attempts in there.

I think the problem is less kick luck, and more that Carolina's D didn't do anything until opponents were into the red zone.

3
by TRav (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:06pm

Wow, I knew the projections would look unkindly on the Rams, but I didn't expect this.

I think they will be the best 3rd place team in the league and finish 8-8 or so.

46
by SisyphusRocks (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 2:10am

I assume you meant division. Although I expect the Rams defense to be improved (I'm surprised DVOA puts it at 23), the Rams are likely going to be behind SF and Seattle, barring big injuries. And I doubt their record will be better than Green Bay or New Orleans.

111
by Mr Shush :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 8:05am

Best 3rd place team, not 3rd best team.

4
by dan harmon (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:10pm

Pittsburgh? They finished last year at -2.9% defensively and considering they're starting a nearly identical team on that side, one year older and one year more injured, I don't see a jump forward this year. I get that the calc's take into account all sorts of trends and such but I think that's definitely a case of predictions not meeting the eye test.

6
by dan harmon (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:13pm

I should also note that, as a Bears fan, I also see their DVOA prediction as... generous. The difference is that their ~-28% at the end of last year adds justification. The Steelers' numbers don't...

22
by Intropy :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:45pm

Pittsburgh's defense is actually about one year younger this year rather than one year older.

25
by Thok :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 6:06pm

If you give Pittsburgh a defensive DVOA of 0, they still project to be the sixth best team in the AFC, and thus a wild card. Unless some team gels, the AFC probably will have at most 5 good teams, and that's generously claiming Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Houston to be good instead of adequate.

112
by Mr Shush :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 8:14am

KC or Miami could plausibly take a big step forward. Indy could conceivably take a big step forward in quality and thus roughly stand pat in terms of record. Don't see any other real candidates.

7
by Aaron Schatz :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:20pm

Just to give a general answer to most people's questions about why team X is higher or lower than you would expect... Hey! We wrote a book! Have you considered buying a copy of Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? It only costs $12.50 in PDF form! Still awesome even after the season starts! The Jets chapter explains their projected rebound! The Rams chapter explains their projected regression! Panthers chapter explains their projection and points out that Ron Rivera will probably screw it up! BUY NOW! All your questions answered! Click "Online Store" on the top of the page.

8
by Doctor Nick (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:23pm

Goddamn you Aaron Schatz. TELL ME YOUR SEEEECREEEEETS

9
by TADontAsk (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:33pm

I think the Atlanta chapter in particular does a fantastic job of explaining why exactly their 2013 projection is much lower than last season's.

58
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 9:18am

They haven't learned from the SF mistake from last year?

161
by Lelouch vi Britannia (not verified) :: Tue, 09/10/2013 - 1:32pm

How is that in any way a similar situation? The 49ers overperformed because they maintained exceptional health, developed an incredible running attack and replaced their barely-adequate quarterback with a vastly superior playmaker. You could also argue that the Plexiglas principle failed to take into account how big of an improvement it was to hire Harbaugh. These projections are based on the statistical performance of a team with the same coach and same quarterback for the past five years, who will almost certainly not be replaced by someone better at any point this season.
TL;DR, not even remotely comparable.

10
by TADontAsk (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:34pm

I think the Atlanta chapter in particular does a fantastic job of explaining why exactly their 2013 projection is much lower than last season's.

16
by craig in NS (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:12pm

Does the Oakland chapter explain the delusion that other teams might be worse?

47
by CBPodge :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 6:44am

It's actually just a link to this song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjpDssaf2uI

110
by max :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 6:52am

I bought your book and tried to read it but I found it offensive and inappropriate. That whole passage on Bradford looking like a black QB was absolutely tasteless. I want my money back. I sent you an email requesting a refund, still awaiting your response.

max

138
by max :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 7:29am

Still no response from FO on my request. Very curious.

max

139
by max :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 7:44am

I also find it interesting that I am unable to quote FOA here because it gets censured. The passage I am referring to is on page 235, under Sam Bradford.

max

140
by max :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 7:53am

Maybe I'm not making it clear enough. The passage on Bradford is racist. FOA trying to determine if he is black or white is racist.

max

141
by Karl Cuba :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 9:54am

I was intrigued so I read the Bradford capsule. It isn't racist, they aren't attempting to 'determine' if he's black or white. The looked for his closest statistical comparisons and the top three were black, backup journeymen. It's a stats joke.

You are being a bit of a pudding.

144
by max :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 12:15pm

Why should they even get into whether he is white or black? It's totally irrelevant. That's not a stats joke, it's stereotyping.

max

149
by Will Allen :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 4:11pm

Yes, it's irrelevant, which is why they make an ironic joke which pertains to the past history of the NFL inanely paying attention to the melanin levels of quarterbacks.

Sheesh.

142
by Will Allen :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 12:00pm

Maybe you are just off your meds.

(edit) To add on, the paragraph on Bradford is also a joke abut the inanity of chattering about the melanin levels of qbs, which was s stupid feature of NFL punditry for decades, culminating in the Redskins/Broncos Super Bowl, where Doug Williams was asked, if I remember correctly, "How's it feel to be a black quarterback?" Of course the inanity in the punditry was a result of the inanity of NFL management and major college football powers, in being slow to put players with more melanin than average at the position. FO is also making a joke about the stupidity of paying attention to melanin levels.

Thus ends my instruction in the oh-so-subtle employment of irony. Please fill out your instructor evaluation prior to leaving.

143
by max :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 12:12pm

You apparently have more knowledge of meds than I do. Enjoy.

I have shown the passage in question to several people in education and they immediately said it was a racist statement. I am not alone.

148
by Will Allen :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 4:07pm

Yes, if you are ignorant of the history of the NFL, the irony may be beyond you. FO is apparently guilty of, in your case, and whomever you showed it to, of giving too much credit for knowledge of the subject matter that their Almanac addresses, NFL football. This is a somewhat specialized publication.

Ignorance leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. This is the Path to the Dark Side! Turn away young Padawan!

152
by Duff Soviet Union :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 6:42pm

You should probably get new friends because your current ones (assuming they're not imaginary) are really stupid.

162
by Lelouch vi Britannia (not verified) :: Tue, 09/10/2013 - 1:37pm

You mean you took a satirical passage about racism in the NFL completely out of context, showed it to your friends (doubtless with a good amount of pressure to confirm your opinions) and they thought it was racist?
Shocking, absolutely shocking. That's damning evidence if I ever saw it.

150
by Marko :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 5:01pm

That Doug Williams story has been repeated often, albeit inaccurately. As the story goes, the question supposedly was, "How long have been a black quarterback?" But that question never was asked. The actual story, which is rather long, is detailed here: http://www.snopes.com/sports/football/williams.asp.

158
by max :: Sun, 09/08/2013 - 9:39am

I appreciate your perspective. Unfortunately, there was no reference to the Doug Williams story in the FOA article. Instead what we have are a few insulting posters attempting to sound more intelligent than they actually are.

The fact remains that the FOA article is distasteful and racist to many people. And insulting them probably isn't the best course to debate the case.

max

159
by Will Allen :: Mon, 09/09/2013 - 4:31pm

The fact remains that being concerned about the tender feelings of people who choose ignorance is a waste of time.

160
by BJR :: Tue, 09/10/2013 - 1:09am

I remember reading the passage in question and thinking it was a little awkward and not particularly funny.

But if you were really that seriously offended I don't know how to help you.

165
by AT (not verified) :: Wed, 09/18/2013 - 1:13pm

You are a pathetic little weiner. Shut-up and go away.

11
by Will Allen :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:55pm

I think the mean wins on the Vikings is a little low, simply because I think they'll be good enough on the line of scrimmage to be better than that. However, they have a pretty good chance of starting the season 0-2, against two division opponents on the road, and given week 4 is in London (and who knows what effect that locale has), they don't play their 2nd true home game until week 6. Then, from week 7 on, they don't play a team that ranks lower than 19 by DVOA.

I take it back. Absent some more running on water by 28, or Ponder achieving a middling rank as an NFL starting qb (which may be the greater miracle), 5.5 mean wins sounds about right.

(in case you don't know it yet, Aaron, the login is a little buggy today)

12
by Karl Cuba (honestly) (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:56pm

Can't log in for some reason. When I can I have a theory of how you can adjust offensive DVOA for the impact of the read option.

13
by mmeiselman :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 4:58pm

Aaron,

How are injuries and suspensions factored into the formula? (i.e. Gronk, Von Miller, Jay Ratliff)

14
by KK Probs (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:07pm

Aaron, I love your work and buy your books. I have a question that I have never seen addressed: to what extent is coaching already factored into the DVOA ratings? Is this an "assume all coaches are equal" rating? Or, can we assume that if the Panthers traded Ron Rivera for Bill Belichick DVOA would immediately notice and bump up the Panther win projection and drop the Patriot win projection with no other input?

154
by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 11:00pm

I don't know for sure, but I don't think coaches are factored in beyond rookie HC vs veteran HC, if that.

15
by Eric (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:12pm

So you're telling me the Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams have the lowest odds to make the playoffs this year? Not buying it...

19
by Will Allen :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:33pm

It isn't as crazy as it sounds. The Rams have virtually zero chance of winning, or finishing higher than third in the division, given the rank of Seattle and San Francisco. The Vikings have a lot of things working against them.

Now, if the Vikings get a split of their first two games, their odds will improve significantly, I would think. If they mange to go 2-0, which would surprise me quite a bit, their chances will make a huge jump, I suspect.

28
by BJR :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 6:43pm

They both have very tough projected schedules.

17
by mm (old) (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:22pm

The Saints don't have the worst projection for defense in the league!

Being 31st rocks!

30
by Independent George :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 7:11pm

They've been upgraded to "Don't Sell"!!!

35
by dryheat :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 8:01pm

Don't buy?

61
by Independent George :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 9:57am

Crap. I ruined the joke. Cue Charlie Brown music...

18
by Duff Soviet Union :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:29pm

THe one that stands out to me is KC being worse than Oakland.

I think you underestimate how bad a coach Romeo Crennel was. Reid will get them competitive, if not exactly good. I also don't see Oakland having a league average defense. 32nd ranked offence seems about right though.

29
by ChicagoRaider :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 7:03pm

I hate to say this, but I have to agree. I thought the system did not understand injuries or depth problems. Oakland has both problems.

36
by craig in NS (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 8:09pm

Hrm. Oakland, projected: -19.8 O, .6 D, 3.6% ST (3rd)
2012: -9.6%, 12.5%, -5.8%
2011: 2.6%, 9.6%, -1%

I see roughly zero chance that Oakland is as good as either the ST or Defense numbers. They might surprise on offense (to the tune of 'as bad as last year, but in different ways'). But even that isn't likely.

87
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:17pm

Reid was coaching a much better roster last year and wasn't able to get them competitive.

He WAS a very good coach at one point. I'm not sure there's any evidence he is now.

92
by Dean :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:55pm

Did he somehow forget how to coach?

96
by Eddo :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 5:31pm

Why would you assume coaching skill - unlike any other skill that exists in human beings - is constant over time?

People don't necessarily "forget how to coach", but they certain can get better and worse over time.

Two notable examples from 2000s: Joe Gibbs and Marv Levy.

136
by Sifter :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 10:11pm

Reid's coaching skill may have declined - but we don't really know, as his lack of recent success may have been due to the Eagles players as much as his coaching. I would assume it was the players fault a lot more actually, whether it be on field execution (which was god-awful...thanks Eagles safeties!) or negativity in the locker room etc. Going to a new team and having his new players buy into his way of coaching could be all that Reid needs to be a successful coach again.

155
by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 11:11pm

Joe Gibbs made the playoffs 2x in 4 years during the 2000s. All other Washington coaches combined have made the playoffs 2x in the 16 years Gibbs didn't coach since his first retirement, including last season. Gibbs may have gotten worse, but he was also better than you realize.

20
by johonny (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:33pm

As a Dolphins fan this makes me not want to watch the season. When does hockey start...

24
by jebmak :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 6:04pm

I've been watching a lot of e-sports and MMA.

21
by Will Allen :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:39pm

I'm too lazy to look; anybody know off hand how frequently the top ranked DVOA team has less than 10.5 projected mean wins, or zero teams with as many as 11 projected mean wins?

45
by meep_42 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 1:38am

Read the intro.

59
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 9:21am

What's really sad, it that DVOA only projects NE to go 4.5-5.5 outside of the AFC East!

23
by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 5:54pm

I realize I need to buy the book, but I really doubt New England ends up with the 2nd rated offensive DVOA for the year. They have a great offensive line, and Brady, but the losses at receiver and tight end will knock them farther than that. It's great that they got a bunch of guys in the draft, but rookie receivers aren't reliable. The book on them will be to force Brady to beat you deep with his 36 year old non-cannon of an arm. I still think they win the division, but they're not going to look that great doing it.
By the way, the Jets projected rebound would only be one game, not enough to keep the New York media from firing Ryan.
Whether that will get the guys who actually run the team to fire him is another matter.

88
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:21pm

What losses at WR?

They swapped Welker for Ammendola, and then improved the rest of their WRs. Deion Branch and Brandon Lloyd aren't losses, they were cut because better players were readily available.

Frankly, I think their WR group is better than it was last year.

TE is in rough shape, but Gronk played 11 games and Hernandez 10. Gronk will probably play just as much this year, and Hernandez, he's a loss, but not a huge one.

91
by Will Allen :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:51pm

I suppose we could get into a semantic battle over the meaning of the word "huge", but I find it a puzzling statement about Belichik's roster evaluation talents to claim that the Patriots would offer the contract to Hernandez that they did, if suddenly removing him from the roster would be a mere "loss".

93
by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:56pm

Yes, two rookie wide receivers, a position Belichick has proven to be far from great in evaluating in the draft, is a definite upgrade from Lloyd and Branch.

113
by Mr Shush :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 8:43am

It's not the drafted guys, it's the UDFA. All reports suggest Thompkins is the real deal, and polished enough to be a good starter immediately.

123
by mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 1:03pm

He's still a rookie; whether he was drafted or not does not matter. Rookie wide receivers usually have seasons like the one Stephen Hill just had, where they show flashes but also make mistakes that cost games. Even players who were productive in their rookie years have bad moments; Wayne Cherbet and Jerry Rice both had huge fumbles that cost their teams games.

Perhaps I am overlooking Amendola, but I doubt he becomes Welker 2.0. He'll play well when he's healthy, which isn't as often as Welker. When both Amendola and Gronk are out, the Pats will have problems. So, yeah I doubt they end up with the 2nd rated Offensive DVOA. Probably top ten though, but not good enough to carry them to 12 wins. They'll win the division though, unless one of the young quarterbacks turn out to be the real deal this year, as opposed to next year, which is more likely.

117
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 10:46am

A bag of balls that Brady had a bit of time to get familiar with would have been an upgrade on Branch.

And frankly, a healthy Edelman is an upgrade on Lloyd.

31
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 7:11pm

I had a look at how the read option affected the offensive DVOA of the two teams that switched to using a lot of it during the season.

I looked at Seattle's ODVOA for the last five weeks of the season when they switched to using the read option and compared it to the preceding five weeks so as to avoid the early games when Wilson was operating with training wheels. The efficiency jumped from just above 20% to over 40% with the read option.

The other team was the 49ers, they ran less than twenty read option plays in the regular season, including the designed runs out of that look before Kaepernick took over. Their regular season ODVOA was 17% but when they wheeled out the read option in the playoffs their offensive efficiency jumped to over 50% during the three game pool playoff run.

While I acknowledge that the sample sizes aren't very big and simply averaging DVOA for individual games is not exact, this does look at two different teams working with largely the same personnel as they were using beforehand. The improvement is so large that I don't think it can be entirely discounted. Seattle's run game was particularly fecund.

Yes, I think that defenses will be better prepared but colleges haven't found a complete solution, that's why it keeps spreading. I also doubt that the niners offense will be 35% better than it was in last year's regular season. However, I do think the read option will continue to be highly productive if the qb can remain healthy.

I do have one axe to grind with regards to this projection (and yes, it's a niners fan complaining about the Seahawk's projection). The read option massively boosted the Seattle offense at the end of the year, does the projection account for the 49ers boost with the same wrinkle during the playoffs?

98
by Bacchus44 :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 6:30pm

I don't think SEA ran read option more than 10% of the time after they put it in. But they really did take the training wheels off for Wilson and allowed him to throw the ball down the field a lot more. Now maybe the prospect of the read option opened up the pass game? But its actual use didn't affect the numbers all that much, because they didn't use it all that much.

101
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:29pm

Field Gulls, hardly an anti-Seattle site has put up numerous articles describing them as running out of the read option more than ten times per game, plus passing plays out of the look. That's where I got the number from.

Vic Fangio also described them as running 'ten plus' read option plays per game in the lead up to their clash near the end of the season. I wasn't making the number up.

115
by KK Probs (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 10:10am

Fairly dramatic year-over-year improvement from the Redskins as well: -7.0% in 2011 to 15.3% in 2012.

One thing all of these (Seattle, San Francisco, Washington) had in common was major QB changes. Had Alex Smith, Tavaris Jackson, and Rex Grossman been running the read option, I don't think we would have seen as large of increases. A lot needs to be done on separating the skill from the offense.

I am interested in the general concept this brings up, however, of grouping DVOA by offense type (or possibly defense for that matter). It seems like there's an enormous amount of untapped research to be done on this. Hopefully, it can be discussed in another thread where it's not buried. Good though, Karl Cuba.

130
by Karl Cuba :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 3:03pm

I'd looked at Washington's figures but didn't include them because of the large turnover in their personnel. If you want another example look at the Panthers improvement after taking Newton and beginning to use some read option, 32nd in ODVOA to 5th, but again too many other factors changed.

What I liked about the SF and Seattle comparison was that both teams had provided a non read option portion of the season to act as a control.

33
by Never Surrender :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 7:35pm

I'm a lifelong Redskins fan who has been reading FO faithfully for 6-7 years, and this is the highest ever ranking for the Skins I can recall. Seems too good to be true.

48
by CBPodge :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:47am

This is how you find the teams that kind of deserve some success, just for the fans: when they threaten to become successful, the fans start looking for the anvil falling on their head.

166
by Never Surrender :: Mon, 09/23/2013 - 4:29pm

Now we're 0-3 in week 3, and I'm thinking that growing shadow at my feet and trademark whistling sound portends something cartoonishly rotten ahead.

107
by Skinsfan (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 1:43am

If I recall, we were in the top 2 or 3 during the middle of 2008 when we stomped the Eagles and Cowboys in consecutive weeks. But I agree it's highly unusual.

34
by jonnyblazin :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 7:52pm

The disparity between the teams in the AFC is interesting. 3 teams being the class of their division (NE, DEN, HOU) 3 good teams in the AFC North (BAL, CIN, PIT), and then a whole lot of garbage, with IND and NYJ being the next best projected teams at -7.1%.

37
by justanothersteve :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 8:36pm

As much as I like the idea of the Packers having the second best team, I don't see it on the field. I think both Seattle and SF will be better in the NFC, both based on my impressions of the GB offensive line (and the harder to measure effects of OL to DVOA) and what Karl stated concerning the increased offensive efficiency of Sea and SF in the second half of the season.

39
by merlinofchaos :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 10:49pm

I have no particular point, I just find this interesting.

Elite QBs: Brady, Brees, Manning, Rogers
Young possibly Elite QBs: Griffin III, Kaepernick, Newton, Russell
Good, maybe great but not Elite: Dalton, Flacco, Roethlisberger, Schaub

Roethlisberger in my eyes is always a couple ticks away from being elite. He's definitely great, to me. Flacco...well, he won a superbowl and he picked on Champ Bailey to do it. Schaub and Dalton are both competent, at least.

It says a lot about the power of an elite quarterback. The 4 young guns in there don't have enough games under their belts to be elite yet (and Kaepernick is the farthest from the title) but I'd be shocked if history doesn't record 2, maybe even 3 of them as being elite in 10 years.

49
by CBPodge :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:53am

I like how it's "Griffin, Kaepernick, Newton, Russell", simply because it instantly made me think of Jamarcus Russell, rather than Russell Wilson!

53
by rfh1001 :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 8:17am

I think 'great' is better than 'elite'.

Given that elite has weirdly become a sort of technical term for the best current QBs - and people get to argue whether Eli or Flacco might be it - I think great is the word you reserve for Brady and Manning. Brees probably. Rodgers has a good chance if he carries on just a few more years. Er. That's it.

I slightly worry that, by crapping on about the semantics of QB description, which is a world where the choice of words is mainly a tool to create meaningless, space-filling articles, I am being a tit.

Still: Post comment.

62
by Bip (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 10:26am

No Luck on that list, anywhere?

79
by Bobman :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 3:18pm

Yeah, I noticed that too, but his stats were not quite there. He passes the eye test for sure, and based on what he was asked to do last year with no D and minimal run game (and no checkdowns, Bruce Arians, you psychotic monster!).... but based on the numbers, he's not there yet. Hamilton's offense should make him look like a different (and much better) man on paper at least.

97
by merlinofchaos :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 6:17pm

I was listing the 12 QBs predicted by DVOA to be in the playoffs, which left out Luck, so that is the only reason he isn't on the list.

He also has the potential for greatness, though the season of Luck has been eclipsed rather a lot by the surprise emergence of RG3 and Wilson. But one season does not a career make! Ask Vince Young. :)

40
by DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 11:01pm

I suppose my greatest solace as a Falcons fan is the spotty results of last year's projections.

Seattle and SF were supposed to be bottom 10 teams by DVOA
Minnesota was a bottom 5 team
St Louis was supposed to suck
Buffalo was supposed to be good

At least I know that DVOA projections don't hit at 85% or anything....

I do think the model is overselling Carolina given how the current NFL works. If the drive of modern offenses is to throw the ball more and defend the pass, and Carolina has poor receiver depth and possibly the worst secondary in the league, it stands to reason that they'll have a hell of a time pushing 9-10 wins...especially in a division where they face Top 8ish DVOA/DYAR QBs 4 times and an out of division schedule that will expose them to Kaepernick, Brady, and Wilson.

41
by Rick S (not verified) :: Wed, 09/04/2013 - 11:58pm

I think DVOA and most other objective statistical predictive models (BudGoode) are not accurate until a out week 6 or 7...

Washington was the biggest surprise to me

99
by jebmak :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:14pm

That is interesting, because I have generally found success picking with DVOA in the early season and the late season, but hit a slump around weeks 5-9. (Small sample size, obviously.)

102
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:30pm

I've also found FO's numbers to be useful for finding solid bets after a couple of weeks and before general perception catches up.

42
by greybeard :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:08am

When a projection system says there will be only 4 win differential between the best team and worst team, all it is doing is minimizing the mean error of predictions and not really providing any insight on anything.
It is also saying that the best team is a total of 9 points better than the worst team. Last year New England scored 14 points more per game than their opponents on the average. All opponents ,not the weakest one. Shows how ridiculous to predict only 9 pts differential between the best and worst team.
These predictions are maybe slightly better than predicting all teams as 8-8. I never undstood why people get excited about these predictions.
At my workplace after every big project we do a post mortem, compare our original estimates to what really took place. The goal is to understand how successful we are in projecting the tasks and improve upon it. I can guarantee that we are light years better in predicting than FO (to be fair our job about predicting the schedule is much easier, since we have direct control over the outcome) yet we try to get better. I cannot remember I ever saw a review from FO of how successful the predictions for the previous year were. I guess that would kill the excitement about these pre season predictions.

43
by jonnyblazin :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:39am

It's not that hard to extrapolate your own projections from the numbers though. Since the best defensive team has usually a -20% or more DVOA, and you think Chicago will have the best defense, you can input the numbers as you wish. All these projections are saying is that if you simulate the season a zillion times, some of the teams that you think are going to be great won't be great, and some of the teams you think will stink won't stink. So naturally the range of numbers are going to be compressed. But of course there are going to be extreme teams one way or the other, it's just foolish to predict which teams they will be with complete confidence. Except the Jets. I think they'll stink.

44
by Intropy :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:41am

I have a simple algorithm that I'm able to use to get pretty good scheduling estimates at work. First do a "rough draft" by estimating what the major items will be and how long they will take. This should be rough; if you have more than 4 items you're being too detailed. Now sum those estimates for your rough draft. Now throw all this crap away, make a gut-feel estimate and double it. Viola!

50
by CBPodge :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:59am

Where are you getting the 9 points thing from?

67
by greybeard :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:35pm

AFAIK, home field advantage is ~3 pts and is captured as 17% DVOA. So ~50% DVOA = 9 pts.

86
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:17pm

3 pts is a Vegas convention. 17% is an FO convention. Equating the two is a stretch. Assuming that they scale linearly is an even bigger stretch.

106
by greybeard :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 1:33am

I am going from memory based on what FO writers posted in the past. I may have misremembered, that is possible.
I don't see why it would not scale linearl though.. They write comments like "The second ranked team is closer to tenth than first ranked team". You cannot say things like that if it is not linear.

NURBS is out of fashion by the way. It is triangles all the way.

114
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 8:43am

NURBS will return, and make them all pay!!!

"You cannot say things like that if it is not linear."

Sure you can. All it means is that the 2nd through 10th teams are all about the same, and that the #1 team is far ahead of the rest. DVOA doesn't scale linearly with points. The calculation is much more complicated than that. And if you think about it, it makes sense, because football is much more complicated than that. The object isn't to score the most points possible; the object is to score more points than the other team, and there are a variety of ways to achieve that end.

51
by Darragh (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 8:09am

Outcomes will obviously be a comination of skill and luck. Some of the 6 win teams will have very bad luck and finish around 2-4 wins and some of the 10 win teams will have very good luck and finish around 12-14 wins.

Cant see how the Aaron / FO should somehow incorporate that luck. Like if we had 32 coins and each was tossed 16 times the average number of heads projection for each would be 8. Obviously that wont be the outcome but projecting 8 for each is not some effort to minimise mean error - it is an actual estimate of the number of heads a coin will generate in 16 games.

PS as a rams fan I think the rankings are totally ridiculous

55
by Will Allen :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 8:22am

They don't try to, which is why in the Almanac, you see win projections broken into ranges, and the percentages of times each team fell into that range.

56
by willisisgod (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 9:00am

What they should do is take the typical variance range for any given year and apply it accross the teamsat each rank. Moving the pats and pack to 13 and Raiders to 4 and so on. But historically these previews have been average at best as projections. Vegas does a much better job. Don't get me wrong I like DVOA more than almost anything 4 weeks in because it is great at evaluating recent past performance. But these are the same ptojections that thought the Jets would be Ianthe playoffs last year

65
by yeahyeahyeah (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:06pm

Projections can't predict injuries. The Jets were decimated by injuries last year.

85
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:13pm

I just read an article on Slate where someone was complaining about how people always mis-use the word "decimate". I hate Slate.

89
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:33pm

The Jets had injuries to 5 important players, right?

That's textbook decimation.

94
by Dean :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:57pm

Not quite. You need another three tenths of an injury.

95
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 5:04pm

It's not good luck though, it's excessive regression leading to smaller overall error bars.

For example, lets look at NE:
YEAR PRED ACTUAL DIF
2013 10.5
2012 11.9 12.0 .1
2011 10.2 13.0 2.8
2010 10.0 14.0 4.0
2009 11.1 10.0 -1
2008 12.0 11.0 -1
2007 11.8 16 4.2
2006 9.6 12.0 2.4
2005 9.7 10.0 .3

Thats as far back as the predictions go, but its a pretty stable pattern. The Patriots are about 2 wins better than the projection if you assume +/- 2 games for luck. Even when Brady missed the whole season, they still almost hit the projection.

They're ~12 games low over 7 seasons. That's not luck, that's overly conservative projections, or regressing things to 8-8 too heavily.

NE is predicted at 27.4 DVOA. The two teams in that range last year won 11.25 games. In 2011 there were 4 teams between 20 and 28 DVOA. They averaged 13.25 wins. In 2010, there were 3 teams between 20 and 22 (none closer) and they averaged 10.67. 2009? 6 teams in the 20s, 11 wins. If my math is right, thats over 11.5 games averaged for teams in the mid 20s... So why is our highest prediction 10.6 games, despite having 3 teams with DVOA higher than 20?

To save face. Its the same thing they accuse coaches of, better to be a little bit wrong all the time, than really wrong once or twice. Nobody gets fired for punting on 4th and 3.

If you look at the perennially bad teams, you'll find the opposite, FO continually predicting 6 or 7 wins while the team wins 3-5 and occasionally everything goes right and they hit their projection.

104
by Perfundle :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:53pm

What a coincidence that you picked the one team with the most conservative projections. How about Philadelphia as a counterexample?
YEAR PRED ACTUAL DIF
2012 8.3 4 -4.3
2011 10.3 8 -2.3
2010 9.2 10 0.8
2009 9.1 11 1.9
2008 11.1 9.5 -1.6
2007 10.9 8 -2.9
2006 9.9 10 0.1
2005 11.7 6 -5.7

Or, San Francisco as a counterexample in the other direction?

YEAR PRED ACTUAL DIF
2012 7.5 11.5 4
2011 7.7 13 5.3
2010 6.2 6 -0.2
2009 5.4 8 2.6
2008 5.4 7 1.6
2007 8.3 5 -3.3
2006 4.8 7 2.2
2005 4.7 4 -0.7

In fact, over the last 8 years, the lowest mean-squared error versus the actual records would've involved regressing it even closer to 8-8, by 30%. I have to imagine the FO staff knows this stat, but they also know that if they regress it further, the teams would be even more bunched together and you'd have more of this kind of outcry. The fact that that extreme level of regression is the optimum means that the kind of predictions you'd prefer have a far greater chance of massively missing a lot of teams than these safe DVOA ones.

It's also why Vegas' team win predictions look exactly like DVOA's as far as regression toward 8-8 goes. If they had come out with stuff like Oakland 3 wins and Denver 13 wins, then betting that every team would be closer to 8-8 is practically guaranteed money.

109
by greybeard :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 2:07am

You picked two teams that have been inconsistent. Also showed that DVOA is not good at tracking inconsistent teams.

It is not important whether they are just cutting the distance to 8-8 or doing something else. What matters is their predictions do not have any dynamic range at all. Everybody is clustered. The best team is slightly better than mediocre. The worst team is slightly worse than mediocre. That is never happened in NFL, there is always a guarantee that a team sucks so bad that the fans become experts about the draft prospects by November.

BTW, as far as I know Vegas is not in the business of predicting what NFL teams will do. They are in the business of predicting what the gamblers think NFL teams would do. There is a big difference.

122
by Perfundle :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 12:58pm

How is Philadelphia inconsistent? Until last year they'd been hovering between 6 and 11. Why didn't you mention that Anonymousse picked a team that is extremely consistent, and thus isn't a good example either?

So you'd prefer them to pick 12-4 teams and 4-12 teams, and watch them miss massively for many of them? Because that is what is going to happen every time. Their job is not to please you and pick "reasonable" looking records that have dynamic range. I assume their job is to minimize their error. That is neither done by picking all 8-8 records nor is it done by picking a bunch of 12-4 and 4-14 records.

As for your comment about Vegas, if there was a sure-fire strategy that would win money every time, then all the gamblers would pick it and bankrupt Vegas. Vegas is in the business of not giving away money, and picking team wins of 3 or 13 is giving away money.

And, since you asked to see how well these predictions have been, I went and checked the last seven years of predictions against the lines set by the Las Vegas Hilton Race & Sports Book, and you would've earned $1080 (betting either the over or the under amount) over those seven years, which is pretty good.

125
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 2:48pm

"Anonymousse picked a team that is extremely consistent, and thus isn't a good example either?"

The fact that they're so consistent is exactly why they're a good example of the problem. They consistently finish with DVOA +20%-+40%, yet the system continually predicts them to win as many games as a +10% team.

Yes, I'd prefer them to pick 12-4 teams and 4-12 teams and miss massively when something drastically changes. If the Broncos should be a 14-2 team, I want them to say the Broncos should win 14. Not say the Broncos should win 10 beacause Peyton Manning might be eaten by a lion while visiting the denver zoo.

They're trying to hedge issues like Peyton Manning's Neck, or Brady's Knee into the predictions, when they should just be ignoring those, as they're not predictable, and they're not predictive. Yes, injuries happen, but season ending injuries to starting QBs are something altogether different, and don't happen all that often.

132
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 3:08pm

To use a baseball analogy, what their system is doing would be similar to continuing to predict that Mike Trout is going to hit .280/.350/.445 (10-15% better than league average) every year while he continues to hit .330/.400/.550 every season.

163
by Perfundle :: Thu, 09/12/2013 - 3:03pm

Good lord, if you play the 2012 season 10000 times the Broncoes are not going to be a 14-2 season every time. They're probably going to be averaging 10 wins, which is what the algorithm here spits out. Giving you only 1 out of 10000 seasons worth of simulations provides no knowledge whatsoever.

As for new England, you really don't understand how stats work, do you? Given 32 teams there will be some teams who look like they're consistent, just as if you flip a coin 6 times there will be about 1/32 of those where the coin hits heads or tails all 6. It doesn't actually mean they have consistency built into them.

127
by greybeard :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 2:49pm

"How is Philadelphia inconsistent? Until last year they'd been hovering between 6 and 11. Why didn't you mention that Anonymousse picked a team that is extremely consistent, and thus isn't a good example either?"

It does not matter which example you choose. In everyone of them you will see the FO prediction will be in 6-11 range. That is my point. Regardless of which team you choose it will be in that range. "You suck, you are the worst team in NFL: 6 wins, You are great, you may be breaking all NFL records: 11 win,s you are neither how about 7-10 wins?"

"So you'd prefer them to pick 12-4 teams and 4-12 teams, and watch them miss massively for many of them? Because that is what is going to happen every time. Their job is not to please you and pick "reasonable" looking records that have dynamic range. I assume their job is to minimize their error. That is neither done by picking all 8-8 records nor is it done by picking a bunch of 12-4 and 4-14 records."

Their job (not really though, none of this is their real job, these are just products on the way to earning them advertising and consulting money) is to provide insight, not minimizing some error metric.

"As for your comment about Vegas, if there was a sure-fire strategy that would win money every time, then all the gamblers would pick it and bankrupt Vegas. Vegas is in the business of not giving away money, and picking team wins of 3 or 13 is giving away money."

No idea how this relates to my comments. All I pointed out that was what Vegas predicts is different than what FO predicts. So comparing them is not really valid.

"And, since you asked to see how well these predictions have been, I went and checked the last seven years of predictions against the lines set by the Las Vegas Hilton Race & Sports Book, and you would've earned $1080 (betting either the over or the under amount) over those seven years, which is pretty good."

I am not a gambler, so I would not care how they compare to Vegas. I am curios though, since Vegas lines moves from the first day they are available to the season opening day, how does the book capture how much money one would have made? I would guess that it would be different based on which day you put the gamble.
Also what is the initial investment here? I made $1080 by risking how much?

164
by Perfundle :: Thu, 09/12/2013 - 3:07pm

This provided plenty of insight to most people here. I'm sorry it did not provide insight to you.

I mentioned the success of these predictions because you asked for them when you said

"How about proving the "haters" wrong by showing us how successful these predictions are?"

I'm not sure what you'd prefer me compare them with, if not Vegas.

124
by mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 1:15pm

Having a quarterback the level of Brady will let a team consistently beat the projected win total. I believe Barnwell wrote a column about it, comparing Peyton's win totals and the projected win total by DVOA for the last decade.

126
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 2:49pm

Which means there's a problem with the projected win total, its not taking the evidence that we have (elite QB) into consideration.

52
by LKN (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 8:14am

Anyone who watched Atlanta & Carolina saw a tale of 2 teams who were definitely on opposites ends of "lucky" spectrum. Atlanta played a lot of teams (like Denver) early in the season before they got significantly better. Atlanta's division record was 3-3 (only losses to division foes and they lost to every one and should have lost to the Panthers twice had it not been for a fluke pass at the end of one game. Atlanta does have a collection of perhaps the best skill position players in the game on offense, but their offensive line is a huge liability and they have one of the worst Front 7's on defense in the NFL. DVOA certainly recognizes this and projects this.

63
by Ryan D. :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 10:41am

The biggest obstacle Carolina has to overcome is Ron Rivera. Carolina needs to build big leads early, because Rivera won't know what to do in a game that is still in doubt with a few minutes left.

54
by Will Allen :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 8:19am

The Bears keep hiring coaches with Minnesota ties, that people, who have direct knowledge of the coaches as human beings, tell me are guys who deserve to be rooted for. I still think Tice is a better coach than circumstances have allowed him to show, which has resulted in a lot of ridicule, some of it deserved, a lot of it less so, to directed at him.

I've been hearing great things about Trestman for more than 35 years, because I know guys who were his teammates at the University of Minnesota. These are the same guys who spoke of Dungy in reverential tones, before Dungy was even on the Steelers, and they were only slightly less glowing in their description of Trestman as a leader. I also think some odd circumstances occurred which resulted in Trestman waiting a long time for this opportunity, and that his track record suggests that if anyone can get Cutler to better achieve his potential, it is Trestman. I'm kinda' at the point in my football fandom where I'd rather root for people than laundry, when I know enough about the people, especially given how stadium politics turns me sour. I can't completely stop a habit that started when I was seven or so, so I will still root for the Vikings, but I really want to see the Bears do well, too, and I think they have a pretty good chance.

60
by Eddo :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 9:30am

Glad to have you on board, Will.

But please understand I will not be returning the favor and rooting for the Vikings (though part of me does want to see Leslie Frazier do well).

75
by Charles Jake (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 1:46pm

Thanks for the intra-divisional love, Will. I second Eddo in having a soft spot for Les Frazier, but not soft enough to root for the Vikes.

64
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:01pm

This is truly one of the great "haters gotta hate" threads in FO history. "Everything you said in the past is wrong! That's why I'm here reading this right now!"

66
by jklps :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:18pm

I guess that means more people than ever are reading FO.

68
by greybeard :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:38pm

You talk the talk but won't walk the walk.
How about proving the "haters" wrong by showing us how successful these predictions are?

72
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:57pm

I don't really have a dog in this fight. I read this site for entertainment, and it has more insight into why teams and players are/aren't successful than other football/entertainment sites out there. I think looking at these predictions are for fun, nothing more. I don't ever remember FO claiming that their predictions are infallible.

70
by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:51pm

Sorry Aaron, I was just nitpicking, not hating. My Jets fanhood has caused me to start doubting the entire AFC East, instead of just the Jets.

77
by BroncFan07 :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 2:51pm

Aaron, haters gonna hate you, and everyone that does season predictions, until you can accurately and precisely predict everything that will happen in the future. And then they will hate because you ruined any need to watch the season. To save time, maybe you can just pick everyone's favorite team to to go the Super Bowl.

69
by Deemo15 :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:50pm

KC has a top 10 caliber defense this year, so to see them worst in the league is interesting to say the least. And any projection that has them below Oakland and significantly behind the Jets is extraordinarily interesting.

I suspect this will be a team that will drastically outperform these projections.

73
by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 1:03pm

Yes, the ranking suprised me as well, until I looked at last years dvoa ranking for them: 31st. With as much talent as they have, I would expect them to have performed better last year too. But to be suprised at FO projecting KC's defense to be worse than the Jets is silly; the Jets have ranked in the top ten in defensive DVOA the last four years under Ryan. They also used two first round draft picks on defensive players, and their huge loss from last year, Revis, only played a game and a half.

Now, projecting the Jets to have the 2nd best DVOA for defense may be a little much, but they'll probably be in the top ten again.

74
by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 1:07pm

Oops, 5th is a much more realistic ranking. I need to check facts before I attack the sacred computer.

71
by Thirsty Dolphin (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 12:54pm

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/2012-dvoa-projections

Just in case you wanted to use facts in your ridiculous attacks on the computer.

76
by greybeard :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 2:17pm

When I looked at it I saw that they missed on 6 playoff teams. They had SF as 22nd best team , SEA as 28th best team. KC as the 16th and PHI as 12th and NO as 5th best team. They had the SuperBowl winner as not qualifying for the playoffs.

And what is it with the "attacks on the computer"? Are you being sarcastic?

83
by Ryan D. :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 3:46pm

They admitted they were wrong about SF.

They expected Seattle to suck, because no one saw Russell Wilson coming before last season started. NO ONE. Even Seattle didn't see it coming, because they paid Matt Flynn a lot of money to handle a clipboard.

KC and Philly were decent teams that had bad luck and then had the players quit on the coaches. There was certainly enough talent for those to be around average performing teams.

New Orleans should have been a highly projected team, since there is no way to project what happens when a team loses its head coach. Add in a change in defensive coordinators, and the single largest defensive implosion ever, and you get a team that still went 7-9. No one could have predicted that the Saints would allow more yards than any other team in history.

Let's be honest here, Baltimore shouldn't have even won their division. They had to convert 4th and forever with a miracle dumpoff to Ray Rice against the Chargers just to do it. If that play happened 100 times, they might convert it 5 times, at best. Then, they would still have to win the game after converting it. At 9-7, they still would have made the playoffs (as the 6th seed), but they would have went on the road to Houston, instead of hosting the Colts. Do you still think they would have won (in order) at Houston, at Denver, at New England/Cincinatti or hosting the Colts, and then in the Super Bowl?

Who would have guessed that a 4th and forever conversion for Ray Rice could be so valuable?

84
by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:10pm

If they don't convert 4th and 29, they don't sit their starters in Week 17, so they could have still won that division.

90
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 4:39pm

"They admitted they were wrong about SF."

Sort of. Grudgingly. Despite missing by 4 wins and 37% DVOA, they also attempted to argue that 11-4-1 actually did represent a substantial regression to the mean.

The computer seems to have caught up to the Harbaugh era this year, though.

103
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:33pm

Special teams, defensive turnovers, close game performance all regressed. This was the crux of their argument.

If you insist on only looking at the mean projection then that's really on you. Nobody is making you read their stuff.

105
by greybeard :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 1:14am

Predictions is silly business. All your excuses about why they missed their predictions is just another proof of that. Maybe they should stop spending their time on silly stuff and use it for something more productive.

118
by Ryan D. :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 11:23am

Then why get upset if they are not 100% correct?

120
by bravehoptoad :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 11:50am

*Someone's* being a Grumpy Wumpus. C'mere you, and let me give you a big ol' hug.

128
by greybeard :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 2:54pm

I am not grumpy at all. On the contrary I have been in a pretty good mood. That is why I bothered to pick up an "internet debate" -something that rarely adds anything to one's well being. I do not do that when I already feel down, internet debates usually make me feel more miserable.

133
by Intropy :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 3:20pm

I'm not seeing a denial on the "wumpus" issue.

145
by greybeard :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 1:10pm

I tried to eat less and tried to eat more veggies than meat, with not much success. Honest. But in my defense everybody is so delicious.

147
by Intropy :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 2:45pm

wampa?

78
by cjfarls- (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 2:55pm

Folks get way too uptight about projections "missing" in the past and somehow claiming that makes this year's projections dubious.

for example, DVOA didn't like SEA, WAS and Indy last year because rookie QBs tend to suck. The projection isn't wrong because Wilson, RG3 and Luck are the exceptions to the rule... they are the EXCEPTIONS! Projections are built on the typical, not the exception.

Similarly for teams that didn't regress due to injury luck (i.e., projecting average injury isn't wrong, even though it is very possible for a team to be healthy or hurt 2 years in a row).

There are many things that can't be projected objectively. Other things can't even be projected subjectively (e.g. specific injury luck). Hindsight is 20-20, but no model has it. I can make a outmybutt projection that Peyton Manning gets hurt in game 1 and Denver goes back to the cellar of the AFCW with the Raiders... but even if I'm correct and that happens, that doesn't mean that is actually a good projection. Its a wildass guess, and should be judged as such.

So rather than getting fixated on what is wrong with the model (I assure you there is lots, and they will address some of those things tomorrow), pay attention to what the model is saying that is useful.

82
by Chemdrj (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 3:33pm

I also believe that they normally have a disclaimer about normally being wrong due to the favorite being 35% lock to win which means that they are wrong 65% of the time. I think being 6 of 12 is better than they expect.

108
by greybeard :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 1:43am

Just predict that the playoff teams from the year before are going to be in the playoffs this year and on the average you would hit 6. Last year it was 8.

151
by Scott Crowder (not verified) :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 5:55pm

I'm sure as heck not hating on FO. Ever! I think you make very valid points. But there is a good point being made IMO by the other side too. The NE projections allow for a valid criticism. Teams go 11-5 to 13-3 over long periods and the projections shouldn't be afraid to, well, for lack of a better word, PROJECT that. There really IS an regression here and the fact that the consistently good teams never get a projection that reflects that exposes the problem.

It's not about how bad they might whiff on Seattle, etc. These are not foolproof projections. It's about making them finer tuned.

80
by Chemdrj (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 3:25pm

I see a lot of negativity or criticism of FO writers for the projections that the formula makes. I understand that they designed the formula but it was not with the intent to one day predict team a over b. (Unless team a is the patriots) I am sure they wish the predictions were 100% accurate they would be rich and could tell everyone to screw off. I think it would be interesting if readers would make a list or post a list of 6 teams that were locks to make the playoffs and the 12 locks to not make the playoffs. The first six locks to miss are not so hard but the last 6 get tougher especially with luck and injuries. I wonder how many of your 12 locks to miss make it.

81
by Chemdrj (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 3:30pm

oops unfairly predict team a over team b of course it is supposed to predict.

100
by Craig (Braintree, MA) (not verified) :: Thu, 09/05/2013 - 7:18pm

If the Vikings can get the top pick with 6 wins, I'll take it. If Ponder improves, they probably take Clowney. If he doesn't they should be able to replace him with a franchise QB. It's unlikely that they get the top pick with 6 wins.

116
by KK Probs (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 10:45am

I didn't read all of the comments up to this point, but just a note on these predictions (and predictions in general). The way the Football Outsiders system makes a prediction is:

1)Events happen -> 2)Mostly objective, partially descriptive data is recorded -> 3)Data translated into objective DVOA-based, backward-looking analysis system -> 4)DVOA-based backward-looking analysis translated into mostly objective, DVOA-based forward-looking predictions -> 5)Mostly objective translation from DVOA-based predictions to wins -> 6)Find way to state prediction that sounds like it makes sense in the moment and attracts readers and publish -> 7)Review for deficiencies in the system -> 8)Update for next year

The way most other football "analysts" made predictions, and the way they all did before Football Outsiders:

1)Events happen -> 2)Subjective, possibly descriptive data in -> 3)Skipped -> 4)Skipped -> 5)Subjective win predictions created -> 6)Find way to state prediction that sounds like it makes sense in the moment and attracts readers and publish ->7) Mostly or entirely skipped -> 8)Mostly or entirely skipped

When I say mostly objective vs. subjective: :mostly objective: refers to, for example, a difference in the reason why a FO game charter might consider a ball to be incomplete; one might say an overthrow by a QB and another person might say it's a misread by the receiver. "Subjective" refers to Rick Reilly saying what some star player wants him to say on television just so the star player will let Reilly be the first to tweet out the star player's next piece of news. Or, they'll say an offensive tackle is "big," or the team was "Top 5 in offense" by overall yardage, and these things are subjectively incorporated into predictions however they feel like. (Football Outsiders has long since researched the second of those into semi-relevance, and doesn't claim to exactly know the impact of the first.)

I don't look at DVOA as prophecy by any means. But it is a good, mostly objective baseline to look at how the parts of the game that are available to be quantified stack up going into a game or a season.

I agree that asking it to do anymore than that is asking too much. The one criticism I would have is that there is a focus on DVOA and less relevant discussion of "unknown unknowns" than I would like. Bitching about Norv Turner lack of people skills is justified and does affect the game, but as far as I know, Football Outsiders' analysis of how factors like this impact the game is no further ahead than that of any other analyst's, and even possibly behind some of the top local beat writers for a team and a few top national writers.

If you want a sport where the most accurate predictions can be 70%-95% accurate on a regular basis, I encourage you to follow boxing, which probably has 1% or less of the variables of a football game. NFL Football is a relatively unpredictable sport.

129
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 2:55pm

My biggest issue with DVOA at this point is that it has become institutionalized. 5 years ago, if DVOA did something funny, they looked at it and said "Why is it doing that?"

Now, they say "You're wrong."

119
by MaineRaider :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 11:40am

It seems some people are really ragging on FO's predictions without appreciation for what this group has accomplished. Who else was doing sabermetrics-type work on football ten or so years ago? I've been reading FO's print and online output since the early days, and I've seen them make astoundingly prescient predictions that went against the common wisdom. They make mistakes, too, but then make annual adjustments in their continuing efforts at improving accuracy. FOA 2012 helped me win both fantasy leagues I played last year, but, more importantly--and surprisingly--my statistical analysis skills in general have improved immensely since I started reading about DVOA, et al. Those skill improvements have helped me at least as much as economics classes have, and I'm finishing my law degree this semester with a focus on business and finance law. Natch.

121
by PurpleBlood (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 12:44pm

The sabermetrics is nothing but the trading method of finding undervalued players on the sport "market" based on some attributes and parameters. But to make predictions of their future "value" is something completely different and has its limits.
The football is not baseball, because the performance of each player is hugely affected by the performance of other 21 players on the field, including several coaches on sidelines and even referees, not talking about unpredictable factor of "luck"...

Anyway nice try and we will see how accurate it is at the end of the regular season.

131
by Mostly Anonymous (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 3:05pm

I can't comment on the playoff odds (address below), but they show the odds of which team will get the first pick of the 2011 draft, not 2013 draft.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

135
by Ryan D. :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 7:29pm

You mean 2014 draft?

134
by hi (not verified) :: Fri, 09/06/2013 - 3:38pm

Surprised most the of top ranking systems, not Vegas though, have New England penciled in as the Super Bowl winner this year. I guess they have too much faith in Tom Tom. Suddenly SF and Seattle are getting the cold shoulder. Besides very few read option based teams have ever won the Super Bowl, much less any west coast offense teams in the past decade.

The Denver performance last night has me convinced they could go all the way. All the offensive weapons in New England had last year minus a second competent TE, now showing up in Denver. Not exactly earth shattering revelation by any means.

137
by Alternator :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 12:17am

The peak of the AFC (New England and Denver, in some order) match up well to the top of the NFC (Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, NFC South team of choice) quite well, but look at the size of those groups between leagues. The top AFC teams are rated with a higher chance of reaching the Super Bowl at all, so of course they also have a higher chance of winning it.

146
by RyeLeaf (not verified) :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 1:49pm

You may need to re-adjust Denver's offense.

153
by Duff Soviet Union :: Sat, 09/07/2013 - 6:52pm

The small variance in projected wins doesn't bother me at all. There is a TON of luck in football. A heap of 12-13 win teams are more accurately true talent 10 win teams who had good luck in close games, an easy schedule, a great run with injuries, a disproportionate number of players having career seasons etc. And the reverse is true as well. Over time, these things tend to even out which is why when you project the season 10,000 times records tend to regress to 8-8. Projecting which teams will win 13 games (or 3) usually means projecting which team will be both the best and the luckiest. Maybe you can project the first, but good luck with the second.

157
by Mr Shush :: Sun, 09/08/2013 - 6:40am

The suspicion is that one specific category of teams - those with truly great quarterbacks - are consistently and systematically underprojected. Manning's Colts teams were probably the clearest case in point.

156
by Subrata Sircar :: Sun, 09/08/2013 - 5:39am

Any mathematical system that attempts to model real-world behavior has a tough time with regression to the mean, because it's a powerful force in the real world, but rarely dominates any given individual measurement.

Any objective projection system is going to spit out a compressed range of outcomes because it won't project outliers - that's kind of the point. Outliers occur when everything goes right/wrong and you often catch a break/get hit in the teeth completely out of left field to boot. No objective system will project that to happen, because its chances of being correct in doing so are zero on average.

So complaining that DVOA doesn't project anyone to win 14 games is a bit pointless. Yeah, someone will (and we can probably look at DVOA and the schedule to get reasonable guesses as to who), but damned if we can pick who with any real accuracy.

It's not being conservative - it's the nature of the system.

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