Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

25 Sep 2007, 02:56pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 3 DVOA Ratings

Hey, remember when the projection system said that Tampa Bay would win the NFC South and New Orleans was a one-year wonder? Remember how we all assumed the numbers were incorrect? Whoops. Plus: Historic starts in New England, Pittsburgh, and Dallas.

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166 comments, Last at 28 Sep 2007, 11:15am by podpeople

18 Sep 2007, 01:56pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 2 DVOA Ratings

New England and Pittsburgh reign supreme, while last year's two miracle teams sit at the bottom. This week's (very extended) commentary looks at past teams who defied their projections early, to find out what history says about hope in Houston and pessimism in Philadelphia. Note: DEN, OAK, PHI, WAS now fixed.

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155 comments, Last at 22 Sep 2007, 12:57pm by Starshatterer

11 Sep 2007, 01:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 1 DVOA Ratings

You love them when your team is high! You hate them when your team is low! Celebrate National Jump to Conclusions Week with the first DVOA and DAVE ratings for 2007.

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99 comments, Last at 14 Sep 2007, 3:39pm by Nate

05 Sep 2007, 06:46pm by Aaron Schatz

2007 DVOA Projections

Here are the 2007 DVOA projections, including 10,000 simulations of the 2007 season to give each team's chances of making the playoffs or winning the division. Learn which teams have seen their projections change since the book, why some teams have projections that differ from conventional wisdom, and how much it will cost to see DVOA this year. (Hint: It is still free.)

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171 comments, Last at 27 Sep 2007, 12:51pm by Joe

16 Jul 2007, 12:54pm by Doug Farrar

Divisional DVOA

The dark underbelly of the divisional system in sports is that weak-sister teams like the 2006 Seahawks automatically get into the playoffs because they win even weaker divisions. Was last year's NFC West the weakest division in recent history? Doug Farrar dives into a dozen years of DVOA to find out.

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46 comments, Last at 09 Oct 2008, 1:50pm by Joshua

26 Jun 2007, 03:23pm by Aaron Schatz

1996 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

Return with us now to days of old, when Brett Favre couldn't win the big game, Steve McNair was a HO, and the Baltimore Ravens had a great offense and a terrible defense. (Yes, really.) The DVOA era expands past one decade with this look at the 1996 season.

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115 comments, Last at 24 Sep 2007, 9:32pm by Packer Pete

16 Jan 2007, 04:04pm by Aaron Schatz

Postseason DVOA II

Here are weighted DVOA ratings through the postseason. The Colts' defensive turnaround moves them up -- but how unprecedented is it? And just how superior a performance did the Chargers screw up? Commentary now up on FOXSports.com.

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421 comments, Last at 25 Jan 2007, 9:02pm by Pat

09 Jan 2007, 03:36pm by Aaron Schatz

Postseason DVOA I

This is our second year continuing with DVOA into the playoffs. This year, based on reader requests, we've ranked all 32 teams, whether they are in the playoffs or not. The results show just how dominant the AFC is, and just how closely grouped the last four NFC teams are. Well, except Seattle. UPDATE: FOXSports.com commentary finally available.

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144 comments, Last at 15 Jan 2007, 12:20am by Pat

02 Jan 2007, 05:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Final 2006 DVOA Ratings

Baltimore leads the final DVOA ratings for the 2006 season and goes into the playoffs with the Super Bowl favorite trifecta: First in DVOA, first in weighted DVOA, and first in Pythagorean wins. New England moves ahead of San Diego for the number two spot in weighted DVOA, and Philadelphia moves ahead of Chicago as the best NFC team of 2006. Indianapolis puts up the second highest offensive DVOA ever, Chicago the third highest special teams DVOA. Numbers here, commentary on FOXSports.com.

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126 comments, Last at 28 Feb 2012, 12:17pm by Robert20Morin

26 Dec 2006, 07:31pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 17 DVOA Ratings

The natural order of things has been re-established: the AFC is the superior conference, as Chicago falls behind New England and Jacksonville in the weighted formula. The Cowboys and Giants keep falling, the Saints and Eagles keep rising, and the 8-7 AFC teams are all better than the 9-6 AFC teams -- as long as you ignore Tennessee's first four games. Ratings here, commentary on FOXSports.com.

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113 comments, Last at 31 Dec 2006, 7:47pm by The Mul Dawg