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DVOA Analysis
Football Outsiders' revolutionary statistics that break down every single play of the NFL season
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06 Sep 2005, 10:44am by Aaron Schatz
2005 DVOA Projections
Long awaited, never duplicated, here are the 2005 Football Outsiders DVOA projections based on complicated formulas that take into account everything from red zone performance to recent drafts to tenure of coordinators. If they prove accurate, look out for the Carolina Panthers, the Cincinnati Bengals, and -- yes, yet again the numbers love them -- the Tampa Bay Bucs.
130 comments, Last at 05 Oct 2005, 3:38pm by james
25 Jul 2005, 04:52pm by Aaron Schatz
1998 DVOA Ratings and Commentary
Usually at FO we write about the football of today, but we're also busy going through old play-by-play so we can apply our metrics to past seasons and learn more about why teams win and lose. Return with us to that bygone era when the NFL was a tiny league of just 30 teams, when Hall of Famers like Elway, Young, and Emmitt still dominated while Peyton Manning and Tony Gonzalez were but wee lads. Learn why the record-setting Vikings didn't even have the best offense of 1998, and why the 1999 Rams may not have been such a surprise after all. Hint: It ties in with the San Diego chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2005.
87 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2005, 9:54pm by Björn
04 Feb 2005, 01:43am by Aaron Schatz
Super Bowl XXXIX Preview
The New England Patriots have shut down the unstoppable Colts and walked all over the impenetrable Steelers. Now the Philadelphia Eagles will attempt to stand astride their march towards history, yelling "Stop." With help from Michael David Smith’s tape analysis, added notes from resident Eagles fan Mike Tanier, injury analysis from Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews Super Bowl XXXIX.
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01 Feb 2005, 01:00pm by Aaron Schatz
VOA Mailbag
It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Does DVOA give any value to blocking? Why were defense-oriented teams so bad this year compared to years past? Which correlates better with a team's actual record: Pythagorean wins or estimated wins? Plus, DVOA for every game of the 2004 playoffs.
8 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 7:27am by victory toyota plymouth
21 Jan 2005, 05:34pm by Aaron Schatz
AFC Conference Championship Preview
Very simple: The two best, most balanced teams in football this year, and only one gets to go to the Super Bowl. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis, added notes from resident Steelers fan Ryan Wilson, and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC conference championship.
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21 Jan 2005, 01:26pm by Aaron Schatz
NFC Conference Championship Preview
Philadelphia dominated the NFC all season. Last week they showed that they can still score points without Terrell Owens in the lineup. Now the only eight feet stand between the Eagles and a long-awaited trip to the Super Bowl: the two feet of Michael Vick, the two feet of Warrick Dunn, the two feet of T.J. Duckett, and the two feet of snow that might be falling on Philadelphia Saturday night. With help from Michael David Smith’s tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC conference championship.
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14 Jan 2005, 02:45pm by Aaron Schatz
NFC Semifinals Preview
This year's NFC postseason feels a bit like the Division II playoffs, but that doesn't mean it can't be fun. These four teams are going to score more than an all-male a capella group after a concert at Wellesley College. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC semifinals and makes possibly the first-ever reference on an NFL website to the obscure Athens band Pylon.
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14 Jan 2005, 03:44am by Aaron Schatz
AFC Semifinals Preview
Once again, the NFL's most underrated QB takes on the NFL's most overrated QB. Hundreds of Patriots and Colts fans were slaughtered this week in a brawl meant to determine which of those players is Tom Brady and which is Peyton Manning. Will injuries on the New England defense help Manning finally get off his personal Planet of the Apes? Also, there are rumors of another game involving AFC teams, although the details we can get from the media are sketchy. Could this be the least-hyped playoff game involving a New York team ever? With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC semifinals.
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07 Jan 2005, 06:30pm by Aaron Schatz
AFC Wild Card Preview
This week will mark the fourth time in thirteen months that the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have faced off. Denver's 2-1, but do they have any chance of making that 3-1? And what chances do the fading Jets have against the surging Chargers? For want of a rotator cuff, the season may be lost. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC wild card contests.
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07 Jan 2005, 02:53pm by Aaron Schatz
NFC Wild Card Preview
St. Louis may be the worst team to ever make the postseason. Seattle has crumbled since the Rams shocked them in Week 5. Minnesota can't play on grass. Green Bay can't stop opposing quarterbacks. Welcome to the wonderfully mediocre world of the NFC playoffs. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC wild card contests. Plus, a special bonus, a new cartoon. Warning: Mikes Under Pressure!
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