Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Jan 2005, 02:53pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Wild Card Preview

St. Louis may be the worst team to ever make the postseason. Seattle has crumbled since the Rams shocked them in Week 5. Minnesota can't play on grass. Green Bay can't stop opposing quarterbacks. Welcome to the wonderfully mediocre world of the NFC playoffs. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC wild card contests. Plus, a special bonus, a new cartoon. Warning: Mikes Under Pressure!

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04 Jan 2005, 02:13am by Aaron Schatz

Final 2004 Team Efficiency Ratings

New England ranks as the top team of 2004 according to the final Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, by the slimmest of margins over both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. What about the Philadelphia Eagles, who led these ratings for much of the season but have set an NFL record for most apathetic performance over two straight losses? In his weekly commentary, Aaron explores the idea that the Eagles began to fall apart before they sat their starters in Week 16.

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1 comment, Last at 10 Apr 2006, 2:33pm by cari arneson

30 Dec 2004, 12:10am by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. What does "variance" represent, and why does it think New Orleans and Jacksonville are the most consistent teams in the NFL? Is "first downs per touch" a valuable stat? Was Philadelphia's offense really that bad last season without Terrell Owens? Which quarterback is set to be the Drew Brees of 2005? Plus, the results from recent seasons when playoff teams rested their starters in the final game might surprise you.

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1 comment, Last at 29 Dec 2005, 2:35pm by Miles

28 Dec 2004, 03:32pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 16 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 16, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Indianapolis moves into the top spot this week, but the top four teams are all bunched up together, and an unprecedented "sit the starters" effect is about to muck things up completely. Aaron discusses that problem, the continued rise of Buffalo, the unexpected rise of Minnesota, and the best and worst DVOA games of the season.

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21 Dec 2004, 03:14pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 15 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 15, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. One 12-1 team gets upset, two others almost lose, and the shake-up puts Philadelphia back in the top spot -- but with an asterisk. The best team in a T.O.-less league? Hold on to your seats, Manning bashers, here come the Colts. Also, who is the favorite in the NFC with Owens on the sidelines -- and which AFC team could they possibly upset in the big game?

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14 Dec 2004, 09:37pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 14, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week, a long extended commentary on the whole "quarterback should only be judged by winning" controversy that just won't go away, and why you should take Carolina's top five defense with a grain of salt.

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7 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2007, 10:51pm by bmw motorcycle of orlando

10 Dec 2004, 12:55pm by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It’s another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. How can Houston and New Orleans look so inconsistent and yet rate as being so consistent? Which teams are the best in the red zone? What's the best team to ever be outscored on the season? Should you rest your starters before the playoffs? Plus, just when you thought it was safe to watch kickoffs, Martin Grammatica returns! It's all part of a suspiciously Colts-oriented mailbag.

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07 Dec 2004, 01:37pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 13, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Once again all four of the top teams move up, but Philadelphia moves up the most and that puts them back in the top spot. How good are these four teams are compared to the best teams of the past few years? Very, very good. How mediocre are the 15 NFC teams that do not play in Philadelphia? Very, very mediocre.

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30 Nov 2004, 01:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 12, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week, we explain why certain teams have DVOA ratings that don't quite match their won-loss records, and where the gap comes from. Also, experience the anger of Tampa Bay and Denver fans as I reprint an email discussion among the FO staff, and a special hidden message for Buffalo Bills fans.

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28 Nov 2004, 08:42pm by Aaron Schatz

2000 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

These ratings have been listed as "coming soon" longer than the next album by Guns 'n' Roses, but today we finally continue our look back at previous seasons through the lens of DVOA. In 2000, two teams dominated the DVOA ratings, but they didn't meet in the Super Bowl -- because they were both in the same division. Plus, revisit the horribly messed up 2000 Buffalo Bills, the team that may have simultaneously demonstrated the worst special teams and the worst coaching decision in NFL history.

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6 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:03am by ruth van sickle ford