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DVOA Analysis
Football Outsiders' revolutionary statistics that break down every single play of the NFL season
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08 Sep 2004, 12:31am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA Re-introduced and Refined
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic that Football Outsiders uses to rate both teams and players, but I know it can get confusing. You constantly see percentages and those four letters and have no idea what the heck we are talking about because you just discovered Football Outsiders yesterday. So for all those who have just started reading the site in the last couple of months, I wanted to give another explanation of how it works and why DVOA is better than standard NFL statistics. Plus, we've made various improvements to our numbers starting today, and those changes are described here.
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01 Sep 2004, 04:18am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA Projections Mailbag
In which many of the questions posed by readers about the 2004 DVOA projections are answered in one fell swoop. (What the heck is a "fell swoop" anyway? Can you have two fell swoops?)
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31 Aug 2004, 01:42pm by Aaron Schatz
2004 DVOA Projections
Long awaited, never duplicated, here are the 2004 Football Outsiders DVOA projections based on complicated formulas that take into account everything from red zone performance to recent drafts to tenure of coordinators. If they prove accurate, the 2004 equivalent of the 2003 Panthers and 2001 Bears/Patriots will be the New York Jets.
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19 Aug 2004, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz
Packer Defense vs. Packer Offense
For months now, we've been asked the same question: "How can DVOA rate the Green Bay defense as better than the Green Bay offense?" For months now, we've promised an explanation. Now, in an article originally written for Brassey's Pro Football Forecast 2004, we deliver. Read this article to discover why Green Bay is one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 6.
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13 Aug 2004, 04:47am by Aaron Schatz
Pittsburgh of Despair
Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers started the year 2-6 as midnight struck and turned Tommy Maddox's comeback back into a pumpkin. And yet, our team ratings ranked the Steelers at #16 at the season's midpoint, and still ranked them at #16 after the season ended. Why do so many people think the Steelers crashed and burned, when in reality they were an average team? A lesson in the distortive power of strength of schedule, and why Maddox wasn't the main reason the Steelers went 6-10. Plus, important information for those who purchased, or plan on purchasing, our book Brassey's Pro Football Forecast.
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18 May 2004, 01:39pm by Aaron Schatz
Rock Cartwright vs. DeShaun Foster
One running back ran for 429 yards on 113 carries. The other running back ran for 410 yards on 107 carries. So how come the player often described as a star of the future is at the bottom of our DVOA ratings, while the third-string ex-fullback is listed as above average? A trip inside the world of DVOA...
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13 May 2004, 02:44am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA Gets Another Upgrade
In our neverending battle to improve our statistics, we present a new iteration of our DVOA formula that correlates even better with wins, scoring, and future performance.
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26 Apr 2004, 06:03am by Aaron Schatz
Pass Defense: Tight Ends, Backs, and Slot Receivers
Two weeks ago, we looked at how defenses did against number one receivers compared to number two receivers. Here's part two of that article, examining how defenses fared in 2003 against the opposition's other receivers. Discover the strange magic of the Indianapolis nickel package, San Diego's weapon against the Chiefs, and the secret Achilles heel of the New England pass defense.
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13 Apr 2004, 12:06pm by Aaron Schatz
Pass Defense: Easy as One, Two, Three
Say it loud, it's back and proud. Did ya miss DVOA over the last few weeks? Did ya? Today, the first of two part articles breaking down defensive performance against different types of receivers. Which teams do the best job against the other team's studs... and which teams do the best job against the men considered "number twos?" There's reason for Ty Law to gloat, and Champ Bailey too, but who the heck is Charles Tillman? And what kind of defensive measure could be led by Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City?
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03 Mar 2004, 06:31am by Aaron Schatz
The Misunderstood Rams
Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics say that the Rams had an average offense in 2003, and the second-best defense in football. Huh? Aren't the Rams an offensive juggernaut? Aaron goes through the season game by game to show how the Rams' 12-4 season was driven by the Most Ignored Show on Turf, the St. Louis D.
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