Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Feb 2005, 01:00pm by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Does DVOA give any value to blocking? Why were defense-oriented teams so bad this year compared to years past? Which correlates better with a team's actual record: Pythagorean wins or estimated wins? Plus, DVOA for every game of the 2004 playoffs.

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8 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 7:27am by victory toyota plymouth

21 Jan 2005, 05:34pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Conference Championship Preview

Very simple: The two best, most balanced teams in football this year, and only one gets to go to the Super Bowl. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis, added notes from resident Steelers fan Ryan Wilson, and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC conference championship.

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21 Jan 2005, 01:26pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Conference Championship Preview

Philadelphia dominated the NFC all season. Last week they showed that they can still score points without Terrell Owens in the lineup. Now the only eight feet stand between the Eagles and a long-awaited trip to the Super Bowl: the two feet of Michael Vick, the two feet of Warrick Dunn, the two feet of T.J. Duckett, and the two feet of snow that might be falling on Philadelphia Saturday night. With help from Michael David Smith’s tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC conference championship.

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14 Jan 2005, 02:45pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Semifinals Preview

This year's NFC postseason feels a bit like the Division II playoffs, but that doesn't mean it can't be fun. These four teams are going to score more than an all-male a capella group after a concert at Wellesley College. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC semifinals and makes possibly the first-ever reference on an NFL website to the obscure Athens band Pylon.

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14 Jan 2005, 03:44am by Aaron Schatz

AFC Semifinals Preview

Once again, the NFL's most underrated QB takes on the NFL's most overrated QB. Hundreds of Patriots and Colts fans were slaughtered this week in a brawl meant to determine which of those players is Tom Brady and which is Peyton Manning. Will injuries on the New England defense help Manning finally get off his personal Planet of the Apes? Also, there are rumors of another game involving AFC teams, although the details we can get from the media are sketchy. Could this be the least-hyped playoff game involving a New York team ever? With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC semifinals.

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07 Jan 2005, 06:30pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Wild Card Preview

This week will mark the fourth time in thirteen months that the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have faced off. Denver's 2-1, but do they have any chance of making that 3-1? And what chances do the fading Jets have against the surging Chargers? For want of a rotator cuff, the season may be lost. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC wild card contests.

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07 Jan 2005, 02:53pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Wild Card Preview

St. Louis may be the worst team to ever make the postseason. Seattle has crumbled since the Rams shocked them in Week 5. Minnesota can't play on grass. Green Bay can't stop opposing quarterbacks. Welcome to the wonderfully mediocre world of the NFC playoffs. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC wild card contests. Plus, a special bonus, a new cartoon. Warning: Mikes Under Pressure!

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04 Jan 2005, 02:13am by Aaron Schatz

Final 2004 Team Efficiency Ratings

New England ranks as the top team of 2004 according to the final Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, by the slimmest of margins over both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. What about the Philadelphia Eagles, who led these ratings for much of the season but have set an NFL record for most apathetic performance over two straight losses? In his weekly commentary, Aaron explores the idea that the Eagles began to fall apart before they sat their starters in Week 16.

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1 comment, Last at 10 Apr 2006, 2:33pm by cari arneson

30 Dec 2004, 12:10am by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. What does "variance" represent, and why does it think New Orleans and Jacksonville are the most consistent teams in the NFL? Is "first downs per touch" a valuable stat? Was Philadelphia's offense really that bad last season without Terrell Owens? Which quarterback is set to be the Drew Brees of 2005? Plus, the results from recent seasons when playoff teams rested their starters in the final game might surprise you.

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1 comment, Last at 29 Dec 2005, 2:35pm by Miles

28 Dec 2004, 03:32pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 16 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 16, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Indianapolis moves into the top spot this week, but the top four teams are all bunched up together, and an unprecedented "sit the starters" effect is about to muck things up completely. Aaron discusses that problem, the continued rise of Buffalo, the unexpected rise of Minnesota, and the best and worst DVOA games of the season.

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