Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Nov 2004, 02:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 11, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week the Big Three become the Big Four as the Indianapolis Colts make their case as a top Super Bowl contender. Do they have the defense to do it? And just how amazing was Edgerrin James' day in Chicago? Plus, Buffalo is special, Arizona is not, and Kansas City annoys me in more ways than one.

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23 Nov 2004, 12:12am by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It’s another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Is Brett Favre better when the Packers are losing, or when they are winning? Why are the Lions ranked so much higher in our offensive rankings than in the NFL's rankings? And is there any way we could measure how well teams defense short passes compared to long passes?

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19 Nov 2004, 01:35pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Midseason Review

Eight teams in the AFC are 6-3 or better. Only six can make the playoffs. Who is in, who is out, and can anyone keep the Patriots and Steelers out of the AFC Championship Game? Aaron analyzes the first half of the season in the NFC through the Football Outsiders lens and predicts which teams will improve and decline with the brand new Midseason DVOA Projection System.

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16 Nov 2004, 02:12pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 10, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. New England takes the top spot back from Philadelphia with a slightly more dominant domination of a division foe. In his commentary, Aaron explores the issue of "clutch play." Does DVOA misjudge teams that play better late in close games? Why is Pittsburgh ranked fifth in "estimated wins" even though most writers say they are the best team in the NFL? And how did we end up with such a horrible slate of games this week?

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12 Nov 2004, 03:16pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Midseason Review

Can anybody keep the Eagles out of the Super Bowl? Why are our preseason picks of Green Bay and Tampa Bay looking better now than they were a month ago? Aaron analyzes the first half of the season in the NFC through the Football Outsiders lens and predicts which teams will improve and decline with the brand new Midseason DVOA Projection System.

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09 Nov 2004, 12:38pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 9 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 9, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Aaron explains why, despite consecutive victories over New England and Philadelphia, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still ranked third. He also has some thoughts on the Colts and Vikings from last night's Monday Night Football contest.

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02 Nov 2004, 03:46pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 8 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 8, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week's discussion topics include the Patriots loss and their upcoming opponents in St. Louis -- by far our lowest-ranked winning team. Plus, what upcoming schedules have to say about which teams are going to make the AFC playoffs.

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02 Nov 2004, 02:54am by Aaron Schatz

The Special Teams Manifesto II

Finally, the long-awaited explanation of changes in our special teams metrics, including a discussion of the effect of weather and altitude on special teams and tons of lists of the best and worst special teams units of the season so far.

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26 Oct 2004, 01:42pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 7, although without Aaron’s usual commentary for the math-o-phobic (he's a bit under the weather). Lots of turnover this week as the teams ranked three through seven last week all lost, and many unexpected teams won.

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21 Oct 2004, 10:48pm by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It's another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: What the heck happened to the Green Bay defense, a further explanation of special teams, and a look at the historic ineptitude of the Miami offense. Plus, could it be better for the defense to decline most five-yard penalties?

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