Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Dec 2004, 03:14pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 15 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 15, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. One 12-1 team gets upset, two others almost lose, and the shake-up puts Philadelphia back in the top spot -- but with an asterisk. The best team in a T.O.-less league? Hold on to your seats, Manning bashers, here come the Colts. Also, who is the favorite in the NFC with Owens on the sidelines -- and which AFC team could they possibly upset in the big game?

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14 Dec 2004, 09:37pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 14 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 14, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week, a long extended commentary on the whole "quarterback should only be judged by winning" controversy that just won't go away, and why you should take Carolina's top five defense with a grain of salt.

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10 Dec 2004, 12:55pm by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It’s another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. How can Houston and New Orleans look so inconsistent and yet rate as being so consistent? Which teams are the best in the red zone? What's the best team to ever be outscored on the season? Should you rest your starters before the playoffs? Plus, just when you thought it was safe to watch kickoffs, Martin Grammatica returns! It's all part of a suspiciously Colts-oriented mailbag.

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07 Dec 2004, 01:37pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 13, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Once again all four of the top teams move up, but Philadelphia moves up the most and that puts them back in the top spot. How good are these four teams are compared to the best teams of the past few years? Very, very good. How mediocre are the 15 NFC teams that do not play in Philadelphia? Very, very mediocre.

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30 Nov 2004, 01:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 12, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week, we explain why certain teams have DVOA ratings that don't quite match their won-loss records, and where the gap comes from. Also, experience the anger of Tampa Bay and Denver fans as I reprint an email discussion among the FO staff, and a special hidden message for Buffalo Bills fans.

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28 Nov 2004, 08:42pm by Aaron Schatz

2000 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

These ratings have been listed as "coming soon" longer than the next album by Guns 'n' Roses, but today we finally continue our look back at previous seasons through the lens of DVOA. In 2000, two teams dominated the DVOA ratings, but they didn't meet in the Super Bowl -- because they were both in the same division. Plus, revisit the horribly messed up 2000 Buffalo Bills, the team that may have simultaneously demonstrated the worst special teams and the worst coaching decision in NFL history.

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23 Nov 2004, 02:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 11, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week the Big Three become the Big Four as the Indianapolis Colts make their case as a top Super Bowl contender. Do they have the defense to do it? And just how amazing was Edgerrin James' day in Chicago? Plus, Buffalo is special, Arizona is not, and Kansas City annoys me in more ways than one.

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23 Nov 2004, 12:12am by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It’s another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Is Brett Favre better when the Packers are losing, or when they are winning? Why are the Lions ranked so much higher in our offensive rankings than in the NFL's rankings? And is there any way we could measure how well teams defense short passes compared to long passes?

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19 Nov 2004, 01:35pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Midseason Review

Eight teams in the AFC are 6-3 or better. Only six can make the playoffs. Who is in, who is out, and can anyone keep the Patriots and Steelers out of the AFC Championship Game? Aaron analyzes the first half of the season in the NFC through the Football Outsiders lens and predicts which teams will improve and decline with the brand new Midseason DVOA Projection System.

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16 Nov 2004, 02:12pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 10, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. New England takes the top spot back from Philadelphia with a slightly more dominant domination of a division foe. In his commentary, Aaron explores the issue of "clutch play." Does DVOA misjudge teams that play better late in close games? Why is Pittsburgh ranked fifth in "estimated wins" even though most writers say they are the best team in the NFL? And how did we end up with such a horrible slate of games this week?

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