Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Sep 2004, 01:15pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 3 VOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 3, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Aaron explains why the 2004 Jaguars are superior to the 2003 Panthers, exposes the shocking truth about the Kansas City defense, and laments for his injury-riddled Super Bowl pick. Plus, the top ten passing performances of 2000-2004 according to Football Outsiders, topped by Peyton Manning's vivisection of the Green Bay Packers.

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21 Sep 2004, 01:36pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 2 VOA Ratings

The first VOA ratings of the year are here, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the mathematically impaired. Learn which 2-0 team is ranked 26th, which team Aaron has given up on already, and how your team rates after two games. Plus, some notes on why DeShaun Foster is still overrated, and Running Back Batting Average no more!

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20 Sep 2004, 02:52pm by Aaron Schatz

2001 DVOA Mailbag

Last week's publication of 2001 DVOA ratings for the first time brought up a lot of questions, and a lot of argument about the 2001 Patriots. Here's a response to some of those questions. Were the Patriots a "legit" champion? Why do the Jets rate so high? Was there anything in 2001 to predict Kurt Warner's downfall? And what's up with the strange last few seasons for the Jacksonville Jaguars?

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2 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2007, 11:52pm by dodge paint recall

14 Sep 2004, 04:56pm by Aaron Schatz

2001 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

Our long-awaited look at previous seasons through the lens of DVOA, starting with 2001. This is the season where the ratings correlate the worst with actual wins, and so there are some strange doings, starting with the team that won the title. Join us as Aaron says something that will make his fellow Patriots fans very, very angry.

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3 comments, Last at 22 Feb 2007, 10:36pm by parochial school

08 Sep 2004, 12:31am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA Re-introduced and Refined

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic that Football Outsiders uses to rate both teams and players, but I know it can get confusing. You constantly see percentages and those four letters and have no idea what the heck we are talking about because you just discovered Football Outsiders yesterday. So for all those who have just started reading the site in the last couple of months, I wanted to give another explanation of how it works and why DVOA is better than standard NFL statistics. Plus, we've made various improvements to our numbers starting today, and those changes are described here.

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4 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:54am by honda scooter 250cc

01 Sep 2004, 04:18am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA Projections Mailbag

In which many of the questions posed by readers about the 2004 DVOA projections are answered in one fell swoop. (What the heck is a "fell swoop" anyway? Can you have two fell swoops?)

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31 Aug 2004, 01:42pm by Aaron Schatz

2004 DVOA Projections

Long awaited, never duplicated, here are the 2004 Football Outsiders DVOA projections based on complicated formulas that take into account everything from red zone performance to recent drafts to tenure of coordinators. If they prove accurate, the 2004 equivalent of the 2003 Panthers and 2001 Bears/Patriots will be the New York Jets.

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19 Aug 2004, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz

Packer Defense vs. Packer Offense

For months now, we've been asked the same question: "How can DVOA rate the Green Bay defense as better than the Green Bay offense?" For months now, we've promised an explanation. Now, in an article originally written for Brassey's Pro Football Forecast 2004, we deliver. Read this article to discover why Green Bay is one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 6.

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13 Aug 2004, 04:47am by Aaron Schatz

Pittsburgh of Despair

Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers started the year 2-6 as midnight struck and turned Tommy Maddox's comeback back into a pumpkin. And yet, our team ratings ranked the Steelers at #16 at the season's midpoint, and still ranked them at #16 after the season ended. Why do so many people think the Steelers crashed and burned, when in reality they were an average team? A lesson in the distortive power of strength of schedule, and why Maddox wasn't the main reason the Steelers went 6-10. Plus, important information for those who purchased, or plan on purchasing, our book Brassey's Pro Football Forecast.

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18 May 2004, 01:39pm by Aaron Schatz

Rock Cartwright vs. DeShaun Foster

One running back ran for 429 yards on 113 carries. The other running back ran for 410 yards on 107 carries. So how come the player often described as a star of the future is at the bottom of our DVOA ratings, while the third-string ex-fullback is listed as above average? A trip inside the world of DVOA...

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