Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Mar 2004, 06:31am by Aaron Schatz

The Misunderstood Rams

Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics say that the Rams had an average offense in 2003, and the second-best defense in football. Huh? Aren't the Rams an offensive juggernaut? Aaron goes through the season game by game to show how the Rams' 12-4 season was driven by the Most Ignored Show on Turf, the St. Louis D.

» More...

comments

17 Feb 2004, 03:21am by Aaron Schatz

2002 and 2003 DVOA Ratings Refined

A review of changes to how DVOA ratings are computed, including a new improved baseline that combines 2002 and 2003 plays and changes to the importance of special teams.

» More...

comments

29 Jan 2004, 04:30am by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XXXVIII Preview

All the Football Outsiders stats you need to know what to look for in the big game. Numbers from both the regular season and the playoffs. More commentary than ever before. More in-depth analysis of Carolina's recent improvements, and how New England can counter those improvements. A look at New England's recent success in a place you won't expect. Plus, a special Super Bowl extra: Keys to beating each offense from Jim Schwartz, defensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.

» More...

comments

20 Jan 2004, 12:05pm by Aaron Schatz

The Two Carolinas

North Carolina, come on and raise up! Has Aaron been completely wrong about the Panthers this entire season? Or are they just an 8-8 team on a hot streak? Or is the answer something completely different? And what's with that John Edwards guy?

» More...

comments

16 Jan 2004, 02:43pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Championship Preview

All our numbers broken down for the Eagles and Panthers, with commentary for the math-o-phobic. Where did Stephen Davis play better than DeShaun Foster this year, and where did Foster have the edge? What Panther strength matches the Eagles' biggest offensive weakness? Which Eagle on offense has gone from league-worst to star performer over the past four weeks? Will Carolina make me feel like an idiot yet again?

» More...

comments

16 Jan 2004, 02:36pm by Michael David Smith

Building a Better Mousetrap, Part II: Clock Management

OK, the DVOA system correlates really well with points and wins. So why does it rate Carolina so darn low? Mike Smith has a theory -- just in time for the NFC Championship -- and it relates to one important statistic that was missing from the logs that built our database.

» More...

comments

15 Jan 2004, 01:53pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Championship Preview

All our numbers broken down for the Colts and Patriots, with commentary for the math-o-phobic. Which unit was more responsible for Indy's Week 13 comeback against New England, offense or defense? Why does the Colts offense slow down in the red zone? Why might Troy Walters be the surprise hero of Sunday's game? And, will Hunter Smith ever get on the field again?

» More...

comments

08 Jan 2004, 04:30am by Aaron Schatz

Second Week Playoff Preview

Aaron breaks down those DVOA and line yard trends for all eight teams to help you know what to look for in this weekend's games. Last week, we told you that Carolina would throw long on Dallas, that Bobby Engram would be important to Seattle on third down, and that Clinton Portis would run all over the Colts. Hey, two out of three ain't bad! See, unlike Mike Vanderjagt, we got our mistake out of the way BEFORE the Super Bowl. Even more commentary this week to make up for it.

» More...

comments

05 Jan 2004, 12:22pm by Aaron Schatz

The Special Teams Manifesto

Finally, the long-awaited explanation of our special teams ratings. Who were the best kickers, punters, and returners in the NFL in 2003, and how much were they really worth in points?

» More...

1 comment, Last at 05 Feb 2006, 3:36pm by Allie Morey

01 Jan 2004, 05:22am by Aaron Schatz

Wild Card Weekend Preview

Aaron breaks down those DVOA and line yard trends for all eight teams to help you know what to look for in this weekend's games. Learn why the Titans and Ravens are mirror images, why the Cowboys need to watch out for the long bomb, and why Green Bay is correctly favored, but for the wrong reasons. Plus, Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis.

» More...

comments