Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Apr 2004, 06:03am by Aaron Schatz

Pass Defense: Tight Ends, Backs, and Slot Receivers

Two weeks ago, we looked at how defenses did against number one receivers compared to number two receivers. Here's part two of that article, examining how defenses fared in 2003 against the opposition's other receivers. Discover the strange magic of the Indianapolis nickel package, San Diego's weapon against the Chiefs, and the secret Achilles heel of the New England pass defense.

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13 Apr 2004, 12:06pm by Aaron Schatz

Pass Defense: Easy as One, Two, Three

Say it loud, it's back and proud. Did ya miss DVOA over the last few weeks? Did ya? Today, the first of two part articles breaking down defensive performance against different types of receivers. Which teams do the best job against the other team's studs... and which teams do the best job against the men considered "number twos?" There's reason for Ty Law to gloat, and Champ Bailey too, but who the heck is Charles Tillman? And what kind of defensive measure could be led by Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City?

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03 Mar 2004, 06:31am by Aaron Schatz

The Misunderstood Rams

Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics say that the Rams had an average offense in 2003, and the second-best defense in football. Huh? Aren't the Rams an offensive juggernaut? Aaron goes through the season game by game to show how the Rams' 12-4 season was driven by the Most Ignored Show on Turf, the St. Louis D.

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17 Feb 2004, 03:21am by Aaron Schatz

2002 and 2003 DVOA Ratings Refined

A review of changes to how DVOA ratings are computed, including a new improved baseline that combines 2002 and 2003 plays and changes to the importance of special teams.

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29 Jan 2004, 04:30am by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XXXVIII Preview

All the Football Outsiders stats you need to know what to look for in the big game. Numbers from both the regular season and the playoffs. More commentary than ever before. More in-depth analysis of Carolina's recent improvements, and how New England can counter those improvements. A look at New England's recent success in a place you won't expect. Plus, a special Super Bowl extra: Keys to beating each offense from Jim Schwartz, defensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.

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20 Jan 2004, 12:05pm by Aaron Schatz

The Two Carolinas

North Carolina, come on and raise up! Has Aaron been completely wrong about the Panthers this entire season? Or are they just an 8-8 team on a hot streak? Or is the answer something completely different? And what's with that John Edwards guy?

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16 Jan 2004, 02:43pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Championship Preview

All our numbers broken down for the Eagles and Panthers, with commentary for the math-o-phobic. Where did Stephen Davis play better than DeShaun Foster this year, and where did Foster have the edge? What Panther strength matches the Eagles' biggest offensive weakness? Which Eagle on offense has gone from league-worst to star performer over the past four weeks? Will Carolina make me feel like an idiot yet again?

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16 Jan 2004, 02:36pm by Michael David Smith

Building a Better Mousetrap, Part II: Clock Management

OK, the DVOA system correlates really well with points and wins. So why does it rate Carolina so darn low? Mike Smith has a theory -- just in time for the NFC Championship -- and it relates to one important statistic that was missing from the logs that built our database.

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15 Jan 2004, 01:53pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Championship Preview

All our numbers broken down for the Colts and Patriots, with commentary for the math-o-phobic. Which unit was more responsible for Indy's Week 13 comeback against New England, offense or defense? Why does the Colts offense slow down in the red zone? Why might Troy Walters be the surprise hero of Sunday's game? And, will Hunter Smith ever get on the field again?

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08 Jan 2004, 04:30am by Aaron Schatz

Second Week Playoff Preview

Aaron breaks down those DVOA and line yard trends for all eight teams to help you know what to look for in this weekend's games. Last week, we told you that Carolina would throw long on Dallas, that Bobby Engram would be important to Seattle on third down, and that Clinton Portis would run all over the Colts. Hey, two out of three ain't bad! See, unlike Mike Vanderjagt, we got our mistake out of the way BEFORE the Super Bowl. Even more commentary this week to make up for it.

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