Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Jan 2004, 02:43pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Championship Preview

All our numbers broken down for the Eagles and Panthers, with commentary for the math-o-phobic. Where did Stephen Davis play better than DeShaun Foster this year, and where did Foster have the edge? What Panther strength matches the Eagles' biggest offensive weakness? Which Eagle on offense has gone from league-worst to star performer over the past four weeks? Will Carolina make me feel like an idiot yet again?

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16 Jan 2004, 02:36pm by Michael David Smith

Building a Better Mousetrap, Part II: Clock Management

OK, the DVOA system correlates really well with points and wins. So why does it rate Carolina so darn low? Mike Smith has a theory -- just in time for the NFC Championship -- and it relates to one important statistic that was missing from the logs that built our database.

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15 Jan 2004, 01:53pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Championship Preview

All our numbers broken down for the Colts and Patriots, with commentary for the math-o-phobic. Which unit was more responsible for Indy's Week 13 comeback against New England, offense or defense? Why does the Colts offense slow down in the red zone? Why might Troy Walters be the surprise hero of Sunday's game? And, will Hunter Smith ever get on the field again?

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08 Jan 2004, 04:30am by Aaron Schatz

Second Week Playoff Preview

Aaron breaks down those DVOA and line yard trends for all eight teams to help you know what to look for in this weekend's games. Last week, we told you that Carolina would throw long on Dallas, that Bobby Engram would be important to Seattle on third down, and that Clinton Portis would run all over the Colts. Hey, two out of three ain't bad! See, unlike Mike Vanderjagt, we got our mistake out of the way BEFORE the Super Bowl. Even more commentary this week to make up for it.

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05 Jan 2004, 12:22pm by Aaron Schatz

The Special Teams Manifesto

Finally, the long-awaited explanation of our special teams ratings. Who were the best kickers, punters, and returners in the NFL in 2003, and how much were they really worth in points?

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1 comment, Last at 05 Feb 2006, 3:36pm by Allie Morey

01 Jan 2004, 05:22am by Aaron Schatz

Wild Card Weekend Preview

Aaron breaks down those DVOA and line yard trends for all eight teams to help you know what to look for in this weekend's games. Learn why the Titans and Ravens are mirror images, why the Cowboys need to watch out for the long bomb, and why Green Bay is correctly favored, but for the wrong reasons. Plus, Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis.

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29 Dec 2003, 01:15pm by Aaron Schatz

Final 2003 Team Efficiency Ratings

Here they are, the (unofficial) final VOA ratings for 2003. Every single play of the 2003 season has been compared to league average and added together. Kansas City remains #1, while Tennessee and New England climb to the top of the weighted ratings that give more strength to recent games. Learn here why the Patriots can only beat themselves.

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23 Dec 2003, 02:01pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 16 Team Efficiency Ratings

The latest VOA ratings are here, measuring how each NFL team has performed on a play-by-play basis, along with the usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. If the Chiefs are toast because of their poor run defense, why are the Eagles a Super Bowl favorite? Is Denver the team to fear in the AFC? And have the Jets gotten up to the line of scrimmage yet?

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16 Dec 2003, 04:59am by Aaron Schatz

Week 15 Team Efficiency Ratings, Featuring Notes on Running Backs

The latest VOA ratings are here, measuring how each NFL team has performed on a play-by-play basis. This week's commentary includes more on the ridiculous consistency of the New England Patriots. Plus, notes on running backs: Why is Baltimore's rushing attack rated so low in our statistics? And which was the best rushing day of 2003: Jamal Lewis' 295 yards or Clinton Portis' five touchdowns? (Hint: Neither.)

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09 Dec 2003, 03:33am by Aaron Schatz

Week 14 Team Efficiency Ratings

This week, Aaron explains why the Patriots aren't number one even though they are number one, why the Chiefs are still riding high off Week 8, and why Jake Plummer may have been even better than Clinton Portis this week. Plus, the introduction of yet another new metric, the FOREST INDEX, that combines DVOA with measures of consistency and late-game ability (now explained for stat geeks on a separate page). Lots of commentary here, and graphs!

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