13 Oct 2004
The latest mathematical analysis of NFL coaching decisions from our friend William Krasker takes a closer look at Seattle's clock management snafus against St. Louis (Russell is right, they should have run three times and punted) as well as the Tuna's controversial decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 43-yard line in the fourth quarter. I also like William's analysis of Denver's 4th-and-goal play at the Carolina goal line. TMQ criticized the play because Jake Plummer ridiculously ran backwards 12 yards and threw an off-balance interception; William analyzes whether it was a good decision to go for it in the first place, assuming Denver would call a play that might have a chance of actually working instead of a play meant to end in a pass tossed up for grabs roughly three counties away from the goal line.
Denver remains No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, but New England moves up to No. 2 and has taken over as our Super Bowl favorite.